Gale Warning 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
610 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

 - Isolated/scattered morning showers ahead of dry-line today

 - Cold front overnight bringing in drier/cooler Thursday

 - Hot weekend before another seasonally strong cold front late
Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Isolated showers are forming ahead of the dry-line pushing through
Hill Country. While the spatial coverage of these
showers/thunderstorms are set to increase as they push east through
South Texas (according to most CAMs), it'll primarily be the
northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads that will see
accumulations (though only a few hundredths are expected in isolated
spots). That said, soundings show that whatever shower that moves
through (convective in nature or not) has the the capability of
mixing down areas of 40-50 mph gusts. This threat diminishes before
most of everyone's morning commute. Then a dryline/pre-frontal
boundary will push through the region, turning our winds to be more
westerly at 10-15 mph. RH values briefly drop to 15-20% this
afternoon, but the greatest threat for elevated fire conditions will
remain across far South Texas. Winds will pick up overnight behind
the cold front out of the north, but the airmass initially behind
the front will see relatively higher dewpoint values before a drier
surge of air ushers in after midnight. Rain chances along the cold
front passage will be low (<15%).

Onshore winds return Friday, with a meager moisture return. This
will allow temperatures to climb quickly to above normal values
through Sunday with Sunday widespread upper 90s for highs on Sunday
(it may actually justify Spring Break-ing on the beach, just
remember your sunscreen!). That is before another seasonally-strong
cold front moves through late Sunday. Temperatures behind the front
will drop to below-normal values to start off the upcoming work week
with possible return of 40 degree lows across northern zones and
into the low 50s elsewhere Tuesday morning. There is still quite a
bit of spread in low temperatures Tuesday morning (some upper 30s in
the NBM 25th percentile for Victoria). This will continue to be
refined with subsequent forecast runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions and patchy light rain this morning is
due to a pre-frontal boundary moving across the area combined with
a strong mid/upper level trough tapping into mid level moisture.
All of these features are forecast to move east of the area by
later this morning, with skies clearing from west to east today.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected by 14Z for COT and LRD and
15-18Z for ALI, VCT and CRP. West winds develop behind the
boundary with gusts 20-25 knots through the afternoon. The cold
front will push southward across the region through late afternoon
with strong north winds developing in its wake tonight. Gusts up
to 35 knots will possible overnight, especially ALI, CRP and VCT.
LLWS is expected for LRD and COT tonight as surface winds are
expected to decrease to sustained 10-15 knots with 45-50 knots
just above the surface.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Winds calm below Small Craft Advisory criteria today, but with winds
persisting from the south with 4-5 ft seas. Overnight, a cold front
moves across the Middle Texas Coast and western Gulf with strong to
near-gale (BF 6-7) northerly winds 7-10 ft seas by Thursday morning
and rough bays. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be issued later
today. By Thursday night, winds will be more northeasterly with
winds reducing to light/gentle (BF 2-3) by Friday morning with 2-3
ft seas. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be today (30-
50% chance) though any shower or thunderstorm will be isolated to
scattered in spatial coverage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

This morning, remnants of overnight convection will weaken as they
move east, bringing the best chances for a few hundredths of an inch
of accumulation to the northern Brush Country and Victoria
Crossroads, though accumulations will be isolated and sparse. Beyond
this, a pre-frontal boundary will move through allowing winds to
shift more W/NNW'ly, dropping RH values to as low as 15-20%. This
evening, the actual cold front will start pushing through South
Texas. While this normally would increase the fire risk, relatively
higher dewpoint values will initially push through the area from
central Texas along with a reduced fire risk for any areas that
receive rainfall. Dewpoint values below 40 degrees won't filter in
until after midnight. With RH's dropping to as low as 15-20%
Thursday afternoon and possible gusty winds, Thursday may be the
higher risk of the next two days, but still under critical fire
conditions. Friday will see min RH values drop to as low as 20%,
winds will be significantly calmer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  54  72  49 /  30   0   0   0
Victoria          85  48  70  43 /  60  10   0   0
Laredo            92  58  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             91  53  74  46 /  20   0   0   0
Rockport          87  54  72  55 /  40   0   0   0
Cotulla           89  52  73  46 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        90  54  73  46 /  20   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       85  57  69  58 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ270-275.

&&

DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...TE/81