Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
646 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across S TX today.

- Medium (35-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall continues today. Localized flooding is possible.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today.

- Heat Advisory conditions possible Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Medium chance of showers and thunderstorms continues today. Some
storms may produce heavy rainfall possibly leading to localized
flooding, especially low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban
areas. This is due to efficient heavy rainfall processes with a
fairly saturated environment. PWATs of 2.0-2.2 inches are forecast
to remain across the region and interact with a mid level low draped
across the western portions of the CWA. In addition, the environment
will be moderately unstable with little to no CIN. The caveat will
be the mid level high pressure centered over the northwest gulf.
Some models suggest the high pressure will nudge westward, bringing
drier mid levels to the eastern portions of the CWA today. Timing of
the drier air will determine whether the Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads will get heavy rain or not. These areas have saturated
soil from previous rains and will be prone to flash flooding. But if
the drier mid levels move across the area early enough, then rain
chances and rainfall amounts will be lower. Rain chances are
expected to decrease this evening.

Models are in fair agreement that the mid level high will become
more prominent for the upcoming week, leading to very low (<5%)
rain chances. Can not rule out a few weak showers along the sea
breeze each afternoon, as low level moisture will remain in place.

The low level moisture combined with highs in the 90s to near 100
out west will lead to heat indices 105-113 across the region for
Sunday and Monday and Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of
S TX. A moderate risk of heat related impacts can be expected
through the period.

The rip current risk will be moderate today due to 8 second swell
periods. Minor Coastal Flooding is not anticipated due to lower
astronomical tides and a S-SE wind direction over the gulf waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon/early evening, decreasing around 20-24Z. MVFR
conditions will prevail through the morning hours, with brief VFR
CIGs at times, before VFR conditions return by noon. However,
IFR/LIFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around
any convection. Another round of showers/storms could occur early
Sunday morning near the end of this TAF cycle, particularly for
eastern terminals (ALI/CRP/VCT). However, confidence in timing and
track is low at this time, so have kept mention out of the TAFs
for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south to southeast winds can be expected
today through Sunday, then strengthen Sunday night with Small Craft
Advisory conditions possible. A moderate to fresh onshore flow can
be expected through next week. Winds could be occasionally be strong
(BF 6) across the southern Bays and Nearshore waters at times,
particularly in the late afternoon. A low to medium chance of
showers and thunderstorms can be expected today through Sunday, then
drier conditions next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  81  91  81 /  30  20  10   0
Victoria          90  78  92  79 /  40  30  10   0
Laredo            94  78  97  79 /  30  30   0   0
Alice             90  78  94  78 /  40  20  10   0
Rockport          91  83  91  83 /  30  30  10   0
Cotulla           93  78  97  79 /  40  20   0   0
Kingsville        89  79  93  79 /  40  20  10   0
Navy Corpus       89  84  90  84 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...KRF/98