Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

569 
WGUS74 KCRP 160022
FFSCRP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
722 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

TXC479-160032-
/O.EXP.KCRP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260616T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Webb TX-
722 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT Thursday for a
portion of south Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2772 9944 2759 9935 2748 9938 2740 9938
      2737 9946 2740 9949 2744 9950 2749 9948
      2750 9950 2750 9953 2756 9951 2761 9954
      2761 9956 2760 9958 2761 9958 2764 9960
      2764 9963 2763 9962 2777 9980 2777 9946

$$

AE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
156 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

- Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall/flash
  flooding through Wednesday morning, mainly near the coast.
  Rainfall rates of 2-4"/hour are possible, with rainfall totals
  forecast to average 4-8 inches across much of the Coastal
  Plains.

- Trough of low pressure could meander into the northwest Gulf
  late Tuesday, where environmental conditions appear marginally
  conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm. NHC
  highlights a 40% chance of tropical development over the next
  48 hours. In response, moderate to strong winds could develop
  over the coastal waters, with gusts possibly to Gale.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents each day. Elevated tides
  may lead to coastal flooding, especially on Wednesday/Thursday.

- A Moderate to Major (levels 2-3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecast
  Thursday and Friday. Heat Advisories may be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

We have now made it into the prolonged and potentially significant
heavy rainfall event we've been messaging, as a deep tropical
airmass blankets the region. A slow-moving frontal boundary
settling southward, combined with an upper-level disturbance
lifting out of northern Mexico and the remnants of former eastern
Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina, will support repeated rounds of
showers and thunderstorms capable of producing excessive rainfall
and dangerous flash flooding. Atmospheric moisture content will
reach anomalously high levels for mid-June, with PWATs climbing
into the 2.30-2.75 inch range, approaching or exceeding daily
climatological records. Our special 12Z sounding this morning
indicated ~2.50 inches which is roughly 3 standard deviations
above normal for this time of year, with our 18Z sounding values
coming in at ~2.40 inches. This deeply saturated tropical profile
will allow for an extremely efficient rainfall-producing
environment, where storms will be capable of rainfall rates
between 2-4 inches per hour, with isolated rates approaching 5
inches per hour at times. Weak steering flow and persistent low-
level convergence along the aforementioned boundary will favor
slow-moving and training convection, particularly across the
northern Coastal Plains, Victoria Crossroads, and near the coast.

As the upper-level disturbance gradually lifts northeastward through
Tuesday and Wednesday, models continue to indicate the development
of a weak surface low near the Texas coast that may eventually move
northward through the western Gulf. The eventual track and intensity
of this low will play a major role in determining the duration and
placement of the heaviest rainfall. Current guidance favors a track
close enough to the coast to prolong periods of heavy rain,
especially across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend, where
repeated bands of convection will likely persist through midweek.
NHC has indicated a medium formation chance over the next 48 hours
(40%) and over the next 7 days (50%).

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, rainfall totals through
Wednesday are forecast to average 4-8 inches across much of the
Coastal Plains and areas along and south of Laredo-to-Victoria line,
with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches farther inland and northwest.
Localized totals approaching or exceeding 10 inches remain possible
where persistent training bands develop. WPC continues to highlight
much of the CWA in a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive
rainfall and flash flooding through at least early Wednesday
morning, emphasizing the increasing potential for significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding. This will particularly
be the case in urban areas, low-lying locations, and places
experiencing repeated rounds of heavy rainfall as rainfall
intensities of this magnitude will quickly overwhelm drainage
systems and flash flood guidance thresholds. Small creeks and
streams may rise rapidly, and localized river flooding is
increasingly likely as runoff accumulates through the week.

Aside from the flooding threat, periods of gusty southeasterly winds
are possible near the coast, particularly Tuesday night  through
Thursday night as the aforementioned coastal low evolves over the
western Gulf. The exact magnitude of the wind threat remains
dependent on the eventual organization and track of the low, though
locally hazardous marine conditions, such as elevated tides, coastal
flooding, and a moderate to high risk of rip currents, are expected
along area beaches. Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution
and avoid jetties and piers where rip currents are often strongest.

Temperatures through midweek will generally remain near to slightly
below seasonal normals due to extensive cloud cover and widespread
rainfall. However, conditions will remain very humid, and any breaks
in rainfall later this week could allow heat indices to quickly
rebound across inland areas. The greatest risk appears to be
Thursday, as widespread heat indices of 110-115 degrees are
forecast, with portions of the Coastal Bend potentially reaching 115-
120 degrees. Lingering moisture and additional disturbances aloft
may continue to support isolated to scattered showers into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage through the TAF cycle. Heavy rainfall will contribute to
IFR/LIFR visibility and ceilings. Otherwise, VFR to MVFR conditions
are expected through 21Z, when MVFR ceilings and visibility will
prevail. Conditions will further deteriorate late tonight into the
early morning hours, with IFR/LIFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the
next couple of days before increasing to fresh and possibly strong
(BF 5-6) by midweek. There is a medium chance (40%) for tropical
development as a disturbance currently over northeastern Mexico
moves out over the western Gulf sometime during the next 48 hours.
This could produce stronger winds than currently forecast if it
develops. Additionally, current seas of 3-4 feet will increase to 5-
9 feet in response to this possible tropical development. Expect
widespread showers and storms through at least midweek. However,
lingering moisture and additional disturbances aloft may continue to
support isolated to scattered showers into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  82  75  90 /  90  90  70  40
Victoria          74  82  74  88 /  90  90  70  50
Laredo            74  85  73  94 /  90  80  20   0
Alice             74  81  73  90 /  90  90  50  30
Rockport          79  85  78  90 /  90  90  80  40
Cotulla           73  85  73  93 /  80  70  10   0
Kingsville        75  80  73  89 / 100  90  60  30
Navy Corpus       79  85  78  90 /  90  90  80  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ229>234-239>247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...KRF/98