Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Winter Storm Warnings in 2026
Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Cleveland, OH
NWS Cleveland, OH issued this winter storm warning at Mar 16, 2026, 1:46 PM EDT for Erie County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Mar 16, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 36 hr. 23 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 16, 2026, 1:46 PM EDT (17:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 16, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 18, 2026, 5:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 36 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Cleveland, OH
County Erie County, PA
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 7:26 PM EDT | SNOW 3 | 1 Wnw North East, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 16, 7:50 PM EDT | SNOW 4.5 | 1 W Edinboro, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 16, 8:00 PM EDT | SNOW 2 | 2 Nw Edinboro, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 16, 8:00 PM EDT | SNOW 4.5 | 4 S Wesleyville, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 16, 9:10 PM EDT | SNOW 3.8 | Lake City, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 3:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4 | 1 Nnw Girard, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 7 | 4 Se Harborcreek, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 6:15 AM EDT | SNOW 5.1 | 4 Nw Waterford, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4 | 1 Nw Harborcreek, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.2 | 2 Ese North East, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.5 | 1 Ssw North East, PA | 24-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 6.1 | 4 W Colt Station, PA | 24-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 7:10 AM EDT | SNOW 2.2 | 2 Ese Erie, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 7:30 AM EDT | SNOW 6.5 | 1 Nnw Corry, PA | 24-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 8:00 AM EDT | SNOW 3.2 | 1 Wnw North East, PA | 24-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 8:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4 | 2 Nw Edinboro, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 8:08 AM EDT | SNOW 3 | 1 Wnw North East, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 8:15 AM EDT | SNOW 3 | 4 S Wesleyville, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 8:30 AM EDT | SNOW 2.8 | 1 W Edinboro, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 4:30 PM EDT | SNOW 2 | 4 Se Harborcreek, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 PM EDT | SNOW 2.9 | 2 Ese North East, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 PM EDT | SNOW 4 | 1 Ssw Elgin, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
| Mar 17, 9:00 PM EDT | SNOW 2 | 2 Nw Edinboro, PA | 12-hour snowfall. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1009 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 502 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 532 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
812 WWUS41 KCLE 161746 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 146 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 PAZ002-170400- /O.UPG.KCLE.WS.A.0003.260317T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.W.0003.260316T2100Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Corry, Union City, and Edinboro 146 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Widespread snow this evening transitioning to lake effect snow late tonight through Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Southern Erie County. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous starting this evening. Lake effect snow bands may significantly reduce visibility and produce quick accumulations of snow on roadways. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. && $$ OHZ011-013-170400- /O.UPG.KCLE.WS.A.0003.260317T0000Z-260318T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.260316T2100Z-260317T1800Z/ Cuyahoga-Geauga- Including the cities of Chesterland, South Russell, Chardon, Bainbridge, Burton, Cleveland, and Middlefield 146 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in Geauga County. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ OHZ012-014-023-089-170400- /O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.260316T2100Z-260317T1800Z/ Lake-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Including the cities of Roaming Shores, Jefferson, Wickliffe, Willowick, Andover, Warren, Geneva, Willoughby, Mentor, Ashtabula, Orwell, Eastlake, Painesville, Niles, and Conneaut 146 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches, with the greatest accumulations in the higher elevations. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Lake, and Trumbull Counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous starting this evening. Lake effect snow bands will bring periods of reduced visibility and snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ PAZ001-003-170400- /O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.260316T2100Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Meadville, Erie, and Titusville 146 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Widespread snow this evening transitioning to lake effect snow late tonight through Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Crawford and Northern Erie Counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous starting this evening. Lake effect snow bands will bring periods of reduced visibility and snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ Sullivan
8 follow-up statements
674 WWUS41 KCLE 162226 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 626 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 PAZ002-170830- /O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Corry, Edinboro, and Union City 626 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Widespread snow this evening transitioning to lake effect snow late tonight through Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Southern Erie County. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous starting this evening. Lake effect snow bands may significantly reduce visibility and produce quick accumulations of snow on roadways. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. && $$ OHZ033-170400- /O.EXB.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T0400Z/ Mahoning- Including the cities of Youngstown, Boardman, and Austintown 626 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations one to three inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Mahoning County. * WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. && $$ OHZ011>014-023-089-170830- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T1800Z/ Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Including the cities of Niles, Painesville, South Russell, Bainbridge, Wickliffe, Willoughby, Ashtabula, Jefferson, Middlefield, Orwell, Burton, Conneaut, Andover, Willowick, Mentor, Eastlake, Warren, Roaming Shores, Chesterland, Geneva, Chardon, and Cleveland 626 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...A portion of northeast Ohio. * WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions with slower travel likely. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ PAZ001-003-170830- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Erie, Meadville, and Titusville 626 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Widespread snow this evening transitioning to lake effect snow late tonight through Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Crawford and Northern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous starting this evening. Lake effect snow bands will bring periods of reduced visibility and snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ 26
427 WWUS41 KCLE 170345 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1145 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 PAZ002-171345- /O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Edinboro, Corry, and Union City 1145 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Southern Erie County. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery conditions with with slower travel likely The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ OHZ033-170800- /O.EXT.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Mahoning- Including the cities of Austintown, Boardman, and Youngstown 1145 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Mahoning County. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. && $$ OHZ011>014-023-089-171345- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T1800Z/ Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Including the cities of South Russell, Willowick, Conneaut, Ashtabula, Bainbridge, Orwell, Chardon, Cleveland, Willoughby, Painesville, Mentor, Niles, Wickliffe, Roaming Shores, Burton, Middlefield, Andover, Eastlake, Warren, Chesterland, Geneva, and Jefferson 1145 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...A portion of northeast Ohio. * WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions with slower travel likely. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ PAZ001-003-171345- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Titusville, Erie, and Meadville 1145 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations between 3 and 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Crawford and Northern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ Garuckas
853 WWUS41 KCLE 170800 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 OHZ033-170900- /O.EXP.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Mahoning- Including the cities of Austintown, Boardman, and Youngstown 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... Occasional snow showers will continue through the day, but additional accumulations should only be 1 inch or less. $$ PAZ002-171800- /O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Edinboro, Corry, and Union City 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph this morning. * WHERE...Southern Erie County. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery conditions with with slower travel likely The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ OHZ011>014-023-089-171800- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T1800Z/ Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Including the cities of South Russell, Willowick, Conneaut, Ashtabula, Bainbridge, Orwell, Chardon, Cleveland, Willoughby, Painesville, Mentor, Niles, Wickliffe, Roaming Shores, Burton, Middlefield, Andover, Eastlake, Warren, Chesterland, Geneva, and Jefferson 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph this morning. * WHERE...A portion of northeast Ohio. * WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ PAZ001-003-171800- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Titusville, Erie, and Meadville 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph this morning. * WHERE...Crawford and Northern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ Garuckas
410 WWUS41 KCLE 171303 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 903 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 OHZ013-172100- /O.UPG.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KCLE.LE.W.0002.260317T1303Z-260317T2100Z/ Geauga- Including the cities of Burton, Chesterland, South Russell, Chardon, Bainbridge, and Middlefield 903 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches within the most persistent snow band. * WHERE...Geauga County. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of lake effect snow is producing snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour across central Geauga County. This band of snow will persist through about midday before losing organization this afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ PAZ002-172315- /O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Edinboro, Corry, and Union City 903 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Southern Erie County. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ OHZ011-012-014-023-089-171800- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T1800Z/ Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Including the cities of Willowick, Jefferson, Warren, Willoughby, Cleveland, Conneaut, Roaming Shores, Eastlake, Geneva, Mentor, Wickliffe, Orwell, Andover, Painesville, Ashtabula, and Niles 903 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches, except locally up to 4 inches in eastern Cuyahoga County. * WHERE...Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Cuyahoga, Lake, and Trumbull Counties. * WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ PAZ001-003-172315- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Meadville, Erie, and Titusville 903 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Crawford and Northern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ Sullivan
022 WWUS41 KCLE 171732 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 132 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 OHZ013-172100- /O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T2100Z/ Geauga- Including the cities of Middlefield, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, and Burton 132 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations up to two inches. * WHERE...Geauga County. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ PAZ002-180345- /O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Edinboro, Union City, and Corry 132 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Southern Erie County. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ OHZ011-012-014-023-089-172100- /O.EXT.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T2100Z/ Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Including the cities of Jefferson, Mentor, Willowick, Cleveland, Eastlake, Willoughby, Niles, Andover, Ashtabula, Roaming Shores, Geneva, Wickliffe, Warren, Orwell, Painesville, and Conneaut 132 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch. * WHERE...Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Cuyahoga, Lake, and Trumbull Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Ohio Department of Transportation and Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.ohgo.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ PAZ001-003-180345- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Erie, Titusville, and Meadville 132 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of one to three inches. * WHERE...Crawford and Northern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ Sullivan
292 WWUS41 KCLE 172051 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 451 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 OHZ013-172200- /O.EXP.KCLE.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T2100Z/ Geauga- Including the cities of Middlefield, Chardon, Bainbridge, Burton, Chesterland, and South Russell 451 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... Scattered lake effect snow showers will gradually end this evening. $$ OHZ011-012-014-023-089-172200- /O.EXP.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260317T2100Z/ Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Including the cities of Wickliffe, Cleveland, Andover, Geneva, Jefferson, Conneaut, Eastlake, Willoughby, Willowick, Niles, Roaming Shores, Ashtabula, Mentor, Warren, Painesville, and Orwell 451 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... Scattered lake effect snow showers will gradually end this evening. $$ PAZ002-180700- /O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Edinboro, Corry, and Union City 451 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Southern Erie County. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ PAZ001-003-180700- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Meadville, Titusville, and Erie 451 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of one to three inches. * WHERE...Crawford and Northern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ 77
072 WWUS41 KCLE 180600 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 PAZ002-180900- /O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Edinboro, Corry, and Union City 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch. * WHERE...Southern Erie County. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The remaining lake effect snow showers will gradually lift out over the lake through sunrise. Brief moderate to heavy snow remains possible until the band moves offshore. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ PAZ001-003-180900- /O.CON.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Meadville, Erie, and Titusville 200 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch. * WHERE...Crawford and Northern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The remaining lake effect snow showers will gradually lift out over the lake through sunrise. Brief moderate to heavy snow remains possible until the band moves offshore. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and traffic conditions. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ Garuckas
984 WWUS41 KCLE 180900 WSWCLE URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 500 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 PAZ002-181000- /O.EXP.KCLE.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Southern Erie- Including the cities of Edinboro, Corry, and Union City 500 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... Remaining snow showers and flurries will end by sunrise. $$ PAZ001-003-181000- /O.EXP.KCLE.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260318T0900Z/ Northern Erie-Crawford- Including the cities of Meadville, Erie, and Titusville 500 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... Remaining snow showers and flurries will end by sunrise. $$ Garuckas
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Mar 16, 10:13 AM EDT, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) A line of showers will produce strong to severe winds as it sweeps eastward early this morning ahead of a cold front. Winds turn SW and remain gusty behind the front this afternoon and evening, with periodic gusts of 45-50 mph, gradually subsiding tonight. 2) Much colder air will cause rain showers to change to snow showers this afternoon, and heavy lake effect snow will develop east of Cleveland and in NW PA tonight, continuing Tuesday. Single digit wind chills are also expected by Tuesday morning. 3) Limited precipitation chances with a gradual warming trend expected Wednesday through the weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 10:13 AM EDT, 3 hours 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1013 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
10:10 AM Update: Planning on expiring the Wind Advisory for
Holmes, Stark, and Mahoning at 11:00 AM, and will likely
downgrade Erie County PA to an Advisory at that time. Will also
re-evaluate our remaining Wind Advisory, though most of it will
likely continue through the afternoon. Other main focus is the
snow...confidence in a quick hit of wet snow across our eastern
counties late this afternoon and this evening is increasing,
along with more widespread snow showers farther west that may
reduce visibility and lead to slick roads, especially as the sun
sets. We'll also be making warning and advisory decisions for
the lake effect snow early to mid afternoon. This is a tricky
setup and forecast, as there are factors supporting an impactful
event including during the Tuesday AM commute, but also some
negating factors that add uncertainty. Stay tuned...
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A line of showers will produce strong to severe winds as it
sweeps eastward early this morning ahead of a cold front. Winds
turn SW and remain gusty behind the front this afternoon and
evening, with periodic gusts of 45-50 mph, gradually subsiding
tonight.
2) Much colder air will cause rain showers to change to snow
showers this afternoon, and heavy lake effect snow will develop
east of Cleveland and in NW PA tonight, continuing Tuesday.
Single digit wind chills are also expected by Tuesday morning.
3) Limited precipitation chances with a gradual warming trend
expected Wednesday through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1...
Deep low pressure (986 mb per latest RAP analysis) over Lower
Michigan this morning will lift to northern Lake Huron this
evening and become vertically stacked as the negatively tilted
trough closes off over the Great Lakes. As this occurs, the
trailing and powerful cold front currently stretched down the
Ohio/Indiana border will sweep eastward across the region this
morning. A line of convection is currently ongoing ahead of the
front supported by very strong frontogenetic forcing and a 60-70
knot low-level jet. Instability is very limited given the time
of night (100 joules or less of SBCAPE), so no lighting is found
within the line. Despite having almost no instability to work
with, the aforementioned forcing should keep the line in tact as
it sweeps across the rest of northern Ohio and NW PA through
sunrise, and this convection will transport pockets of higher
winds from that low-level jet to the surface. Will continue to
handle any 50+ knot gusts within the line with Severe
Thunderstorm Warnings.
Outside of the convective line, the tight pressure gradient and
strong synoptic wind field will continue to bring S winds of
20-25 knots with gusts of 30-45 knots this morning. The
strongest winds will continue to be found in NW PA due to
downsloping, and additional gusts over 50 knots are possible
there until the cold front crosses in the mid to late morning
timeframe and veers winds to SW.
Confidence is a little lower in how strong winds will be in the
cold air advection behind the cold front late this morning
through this evening. The pressure gradient will remain tight as
the low lifts into the northern Great Lakes, and this combined
with very strong cold air advection and rapid pressure rises
behind the front all support continued gusty winds. However,
the wind field continues to look notably lower in the cold
advection (backside) of this system with 850-925 mb winds
quickly falling to 35-40 knots. This may keep gusts marginal
for an Advisory, and feel areas downwind of the lake east of
Cleveland and in NW PA have the best chance for frequent
advisory level gusts (40+ knots) this afternoon and evening
given the WSW direction. The rest of the Advisory area may see
the most frequent gusts averaging 35 knots, with only
occasional gusts above 40 knots. The Wind Advisory expiration of
15Z for Mahoning, Stark, and Holmes Counties continues to make
sense, and will need to monitor winds to see if other portions
of the Advisory can be canceled early. There is also the
potential for the High Wind Warning in Erie County PA to be
downgraded to an Advisory, but want to get through the stronger
downsloping winds ahead of the front this morning before making
a decision on that. Nevertheless, the big takeaway is that windy
conditions will continue through the day, but they will be
gradually subsiding. The winds will continue to subside tonight
as the pressure gradient relaxes.
KEY MESSAGE #2...
Confidence in significant and impactful lake effect snow
continues to increase as winter makes a harsh return tonight and
Tuesday. Impressive cold air advection behind the cold front
will drop 850 mb temps from 8-10 C early this morning to -10 to
-12 C this evening! These 850 mb temps will further cool to
around -17 C by 12Z Tuesday as the cold air deepens.
Unseasonably warm temperatures during the first half of March
has melted most of the ice on Lake Erie and allowed water temps
to rise into the upper 30s. This will support moderate lake
induced instability (a few hundred joules of CAPE) as the cold
air deepens tonight and Tuesday morning, and this combined with
plenty of wraparound synoptic moisture, well-alinged westerly
flow down the long fetch of the lake, good Omega (lift) within
the DGZ, upstream connections to Lake Michigan, and low-level
convergence near the south shore should all lead to an
impressive late season event. Confidence is increasing for
greater than 8 inch amounts in eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga
Counties as well as in southern Erie County PA from this
evening through Tuesday. The aforementioned low-level
convergence and westerly boundary layer flow support a single
west-east band east of Cleveland and another in NW PA. HREF,
RAP, and NAMNest all converge on a 280 degree boundary layer
flow tonight into Tuesday morning, with some north/south
wobbles possible depending on weak shortwaves and associated
surface troughs passing through. Local climatology with such a
flow direction and the low-level convergence would place a band
from about Euclid in NE Cuyahoga County through Chesterland,
Munson, and Burton in Geauga County, with the second band
setting up into southern Erie County PA. These two west-east
bands will likely have 1 inch per hour snowfall rates tonight
into Tuesday morning, so depending on how long they remain
stationary, snowfall totals could really add up. That is the
lowest confidence part of the forecast. If the bands are more
transient due to shortwave passages, snowfall amounts will be
in the 3 to 6 inch range. If the bands lock in longer, then
amounts over 8 inches are likely. The overall trend has been
upward with snowfall, and the HREF mean snowfall is over 6
inches. The WRFarw has amounts well over a foot in eastern
Cuyahoga County, as an example of a more stationary band
solution.
A couple of additional notes with the lake-effect. First, the
high mid March sun angle will disrupt the organization of bands
by midday Tuesday through the afternoon. This will reduce
accumulations Tuesday afternoon even though it will still be
snowing across the snowbelt where bands persist, so the bulk of
the snow will need to occur Monday night and Tuesday morning for
the higher snowfall potential to be realized. Second, strong
boundary layer winds tonight and Tuesday morning over 40 knots
will likely push the heaviest snow farther inland, so lakeshore
areas will probably not see as much snow. This makes the
forecast for Lake County challenging because the SW part of the
county around Willoughby Hills and Kirtland has the potential to
see warning level amounts over 8 inches too given the
climatology of 280 degree flow, while the rest of the county may
see much less. For this reason, left Lake County out of the
Watch, but a high end Advisory at least looks likely. Advisory
level amounts of 3 to 6 inches look most likely for Ashtabula
and northern Erie Counties in between the two most persistent
bands. Third, there will be a short window of synoptic snow in
NE Ohio and NW PA this afternoon and evening as strong forcing
from a 150+ knot upper jet leads to a blossoming of precip
behind the cold front. Warm ground and marginal temperatures at
this stage should keep the synoptic snow this evening 0.5 inch
or less, but most of NE Ohio and NW PA will see at least a
coating of snow this evening before the lake effect kicks in.
Finally, snow showers off of Lake Michigan will impact NW and
north central Ohio at times tonight and Tuesday, so went with
0.5 to 1 inch across parts of NW Ohio and the central highlands
region.
Besides the snow, this airmass will be of arctic origin. Air
temperatures will fall into the upper teens and low 20s tonight
and Tuesday morning, and this combined with the wind will
produce wind chills in the single digits. This could cause
exposure risks for outdoor holiday activities.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
The lake effect snow will wind down Tuesday night and completely
end by Wednesday morning as surface ridging builds into the
region. A few light rain and snow showers are possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the ridge departs and a weakening front
crosses the region, but any precip will be low impact. Overall,
more of a quasi-zonal mid/upper pattern will develop Thursday
through next weekend, with the southern Great Lakes region
becoming wedged between a strong ridge over the SW CONUS and
central/S Plains and lingering trough over the NE CONUS. This
will support temperatures moderating to seasonable levels for
mid to late March and limited precip.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Low pressure is located over central lower Michigan this morning
with a cold front extending south towards Port Clinton and
Mansfield, sweeping east. Rain is ongoing across eastern Ohio
and moving into Northwest Pennsylvania this morning and will
exit to the east through 15Z. Winds are increasing behind the
cold front again with west southwest gusts of 35-40 knots.
Wrap around moisture spreads back in from the west as the trough
aloft swings through this afternoon with scattered snow showers
expanding mid to late afternoon. We also get another wave of
moisture spreading north across eastern Ohio this afternoon with
rain changing to snow. Visibilities will tend to drop to MVFR in
snow showers and timing will have to be refined. By evening the
snow becomes focused more across the primary snow belt and could
impact CLE/ERI/YNG into the overnight. Conditions withing lake
effect snow bands will be IFR but unsure if the heavier bands
will impact the terminals. Winds will remain gusty into tonight
but drop back closer to 25 knots.
Outlook...Lake effect snow showers and possible squalls will
impact the Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA Monday night into Tuesday
with non-VFR. Non-VFR returns late Tuesday night into Wednesday
night with the next warm front.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong cold front will sweep east across the lake today through
16Z, with winds shifting from southwest to westerly. Strong wind
gusts to 40 or possibly 45 knots may accompany the frontal passage
with gale force winds developing from west to east behind the front
today. Gales warnings are in effect through Tuesday morning with
waves building to 10 to 14 feet. Low water conditions are also
forecast to develop on the western basin of Lake Erie today into
this evening. Small Craft Advisories will be needed again on Tuesday
after the Gale Warnings end with westerly winds of 15 to 25 knots
and waves taking into Tuesday evening to subside below advisory
criteria on the east end of the lake.
High pressure builds in on Tuesday night with a warm front lifting
north across the lake late Wednesday with southerly winds of 15-20
knots. Conditions tend to be generally good through Friday with
northeast winds of 10-20 knots for a period of time on Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>031-036-037-047-089.
Winter Storm Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday
evening for OHZ011-013.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ032-033-038.
PA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ003.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001-002.
Winter Storm Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through
Wednesday morning for PAZ002.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>148-162>168.
Low Water Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>144-
162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ149.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ149-169.
&&
DISCUSSION...Garuckas/Sullivan
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 11:06 AM EDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>030-036-037-171515- Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina- Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Marion-Morrow- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered snow showers and perhaps a few heavier snow squalls are likely late this afternoon and this evening. Heavier snow showers may lead to significant reductions in visibility and localized accumulations on roadways, especially after sunset. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ021-031-038-047-171515- Summit-Wayne-Holmes-Knox- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and northeast Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered snow showers and perhaps a few heavier snow squalls are this evening into tonight. Heavier snow showers may lead to significant reductions in visibility and localized accumulations on roadways, especially after sunset. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ012-014-089-PAZ001-003-171515- Lake-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Crawford- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Lake effect snow will develop tonight and persist into Tuesday night. Periods of heavy snow are possible, especially tonight and Tuesday morning when significant accumulations could occur where the snow bands persist. Additionally, wind gusts up to 45 mph will lead to poor visibility in falling and blowing snow. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ002-171515- Southern Erie- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Winter Storm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ011-013-171515- Cuyahoga-Geauga- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Winter Storm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LEZ142>144-162>164-171515- Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH- The Islands to Vermilion OH- Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM offshoreline to US-Canadian border- Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border- The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. Low Water Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. Low Water Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LEZ145>148-165>168-171515- Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH- Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH- Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the- Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the- Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LEZ061-149-169-171515- Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ022-023-032-033-171515- Portage-Trumbull-Stark-Mahoning- 1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A period of moderate snow is likely late this afternoon into this evening, with moderate snow most likely closer to the Pennsylvania border. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are likely. Roads may become snow covered and slick, especially after sunset. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 16, 9:10 AM EDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
910 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0824 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSE Walbridge 41.57N 83.48W
03/16/2026 M61 MPH Wood OH ASOS
ASOS station KTDZ Toledo.
&&Local storm report, Mar 16, 9:11 AM EDT, 4 hours 35 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
911 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0820 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 N Whitehouse 41.58N 83.80W
03/16/2026 M58 MPH Lucas OH ASOS
ASOS station KTOL Toledo.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Cleveland, OH issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2:28 AM EDT | Winter Storm Watch | CLE | Erie | 11 hr |
| Mar 16, 1:46 PM EDT | Winter Weather Advisory | CLE | Crawford, Erie | 39 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2026Every winter storm warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.