Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the upcoming forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this evening into
early tonight. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small
hail is possible this evening.

2) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers
continue across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania through early Tuesday.

3) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper-level low remains situated over the Great Lakes region
today with the occluded surface low right along the
Ontario/Quebec border. A compact mid-level shortwave trough is
working its way around western edge of the upper low and will
approach the forecast from the north this evening. Paired with
the left exit region of a jet streak over the western Great
Lakes and we have solid forcing for ascent and pretty good
confidence in timing and areal extent of precipitation this
evening into early tonight.

We start with scattered showers and storms areawide this
afternoon as MLCAPE exceeds 250 J/kg underneath the jet streak
forcing. The impending shortwave will focus a better period of
thunderstorm development roughly along and northeast of I-80 in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania between 7 PM and 12
AM. This is where MLCAPE will be greatest (>500 J/kg) and
exists the chance for organized convection that will have the
potential for lightning, gusty winds (most likely in the 40-50
mph range), small hail, and heavy rain.

While the mid-level speed max will be offset to the southwest,
effective bulk shear of around 25-35 knots should be sufficient
for an organized convection. Deep layer shear should be enough
to produce strong winds but lack of DCAPE and waning low-level
lapse rates is likely to make 40-50 mph gusts more common rather
than 58+ mph (severe thunderstorm warning criteria). Small hail
is likely to be pretty common in most thunderstorms this
evening, aided by low freezing heights around 8-9kft and modest
mid-level lapse rates. Large hail at or exceeding 1" is unlikely
but possible with any rotating updrafts.

Heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms with minor flooding
possible is low-lying or flood-prone areas. Precipitation is
unlikely to reach amounts for flash flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2..
Below normal temperatures continue through at least Tuesday with
lake effect rain showers continuing tonight through Tuesday
morning. Rain is likely to be more more persistent in Northwest
Pennsylvania, compared to the "snowbelt" region of Northeast
Ohio where rain showers will be more intermittent.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Temperatures and humidity build back to near normal Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of our next upper-level trough and low
pressure system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday night into Thursday with PoPs peaking in the
40-60% range. Can't completely rule out severe weather, but at
this point most storms look to remain sub-severe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is expected across the western terminals through the TAF
period as periodic lake effect showers and clouds impact
terminals from KCLE eastward. A round of showers/thunderstorms
are moving over Lake Erie currently and will impact KCLE and
KERI through the next few hours. Stronger gusts to around 30
knots out of the northwest are possible if thunderstorms impact
station. Lingering showers are possible, especially at KERI,
behind the thunderstorms. Confidence is lower in showers impact
KYNG and KCAK. All terminals except KERI will dry out after
midnight tonight with VFR ceilings expected across the region
tomorrow.

Gusts will begin to subside over the next hour and will be
sustained at around 10 knots out of the west-northwest. Winds
will pick up again around 14-15Z tomorrow and gusts up to 20
knots are expected throughout the day.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lake effect rain and/or low
ceilings in far NE OH and NW pa Monday into Tuesday. Non-VFR
may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will continue across much of Lake Erie
through Monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25
knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. Marine conditions will
gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday as winds subside to 10
knots or less. Winds will shift towards the south to southwest on
Wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by Thursday.

A few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across
the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie through this evening,
associated with showers and thunderstorms. There is also a risk for
waterspouts into Tuesday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009-
     010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

OHZ011-012-089-PAZ001-241930-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and locally
heavy rain between 7 PM and 12 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ013-014-022-023-PAZ002-003-241930-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Portage-Trumbull-Southern Erie-Crawford-
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and locally
heavy rain between 7 PM and 12 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-241930-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and
waterspouts between 7 PM and 12 AM. The chance for waterspouts
continues through the rest of tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A chance for waterspouts continues on Lake Erie through Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ007-241930-
Ottawa-
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents along Lake Erie beaches
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ009-010-241930-
Erie-Lorain-
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006-008-017>021-027>033-036>038-047-241930-
Lucas-Wood-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Wyandot-
Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-
Knox-
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
900 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Hail             3 NE Aquilla            41.57N 81.13W
08/23/2026  E1.00 Inch       Geauga             OH   Public

&&

AK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
911 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 NNW Sheffield Lake    41.51N 82.11W
08/23/2026  M43 MPH          LEZ145             OH   Buoy

            Buoy 45204 1 NW Sheffield Lake measured 37
            knot wind gust.

&&

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
915 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

OHZ014-023-240200-
Trumbull OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
915 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN TRUMBULL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ASHTABULA COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 915 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orwell, or 17 miles north of Warren, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cortland, Kinsman, North Bloomfield, Orwell, Mecca, Johnston,
Orangeville, Yankee Lake, and Brookfield Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 8094 4159 8083 4149 8052 4123 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 297DEG 27KT 4150 8084

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

18

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NW Cleveland          41.55N 81.77W
08/23/2026  M45 MPH          LEZ146             OH   Mesonet

            Buoy 45176 4 NNE Lakewood measured 39 knot
            wind gust.

&&

AK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
920 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 5 NW Cleveland          41.55N 81.77W
08/23/2026  M45 MPH          LEZ146             OH   Buoy

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 5
            NW Cleveland. Buoy 45176 4 NNE Lakewood
            measured 39 knot wind gust.

&&

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
921 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

OHZ013-021>023-033-240200-
Summit OH-Geauga OH-Portage OH-Mahoning OH-Trumbull OH-
921 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TRUMBULL...PORTAGE...NORTHWESTERN
MAHONING...SOUTHERN GEAUGA AND NORTHEASTERN SUMMIT COUNTIES THROUGH
1000 PM EDT...

At 920 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Middlefield to near
Mantua to Macedonia. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Youngstown, Warren, Sharon, Ravenna, Cuyahoga Falls, Kent, Solon,
Hudson, Niles, Twinsburg, Tallmadge, Streetsboro, Macedonia, Hubbard,
Cortland, Newton Falls, Lordstown, Middlefield, Garrettsville, and
Mantua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 8084 4098 8108 4099 8109 4099 8131
      4128 8160 4129 8157 4133 8160 4135 8149
      4135 8140 4137 8139 4139 8130 4151 8101
      4122 8051 4116 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 315DEG 24KT 4144 8104 4135 8125 4130 8149

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

18