Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western counties
until 7PM this evening. Some convection has begun to develop
upstream of the area and is expected to move into the
destabilizing area across NW OH. Current temperatures have
surged into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. The
primary concern remains strong winds. Will need to continue to
monitor conditions further east to determine if any expansion is
needed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary
threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and
small hail are possible.

2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high
moves into the area.

3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far
NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and
limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However,
across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for
rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE
already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse
rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain
north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range.
Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see
some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line
expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000
J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any
convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some
small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary
line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given
the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that
do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this
evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in
the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on
area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells
could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in
timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall
concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to
highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across
the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for
Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly
20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper
50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some
lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of
counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and
high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately,
that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage
across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday.
To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will
fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s
Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season
frost.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettled as multiple
shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of
showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary
settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday
should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to
warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this
boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned
troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple
rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in
possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial
flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area
in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should
be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional
support for shower development, but any severe potential remains
uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the
70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A line of thunderstorms are moving across Ohio currently
located along the I-71 corridor, west of KCLE and east of KFDY.
The line will continue to move eastward over the next few hours
until it clears out of the region and east of KYNG by 04Z. With
the thunderstorms, periodic gusts of up to 30-40 knots are
expected as well as heavy rain dropping visibility down to IFR
conditions. Behind the convection, a cold front will pass
through the region and winds will begin to shift to be out of
the northwest by 05-09Z, then out of the north by midday
Wednesday. Additionally, ceilings will lower behind the front
down to MVFR with some IFR possible KMFD, KCAK, KYNG, KERI.
Conditions will steadily improve towards the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers late Friday
through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds gusting 20-30kts over the western basin and
15-25kts over the central and eastern basins ahead of a strong
cold front that will come through later this evening/tonight. At
that point, winds will come onshore in the wake of that front,
northwesterly 10-15kts later tonight, and then northeasterly
Wednesday into Wednesday night 10-15kts, and then 15-20kts
Thursday through Friday night. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed in these northeasterly winds for the middle and end of
the week. Winds variable around 10kts for the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday.
High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations
again. The following are the records for May 19.

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
05-19   92(1996)  88(1964)   88(1998)    91(1911)   89(1934)    90(1996)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...23
MARINE...26

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
814 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

OHZ036-037-047-200115-
Marion OH-Morrow OH-Knox OH-
814 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN MARION...MORROW AND KNOX
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 814 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Galion to near Ashley to near Plain City.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Mount Vernon, Mount Gilead, Fredericktown, Gambier, Utica,
Cardington, Centerburg, Ashley, Danville, Waldo, Chesterville,
Sparta, Waterford, Caledonia, Edison, Marengo, Fulton, Martinsburg,
and Gann.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
north central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8274 4035 8275
      4036 8293 4041 8292 4044 8318 4070 8302
      4071 8263 4064 8264 4063 8262 4055 8262
      4055 8235 4057 8218 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 281DEG 39KT 4076 8282 4040 8301 4010 8332

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Garuckas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
826 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-200130-
Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-Northern Erie PA-
Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
826 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ASHTABULA...ERIE AND NORTHERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

At 826 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Northwest Harborcreek to
near Conneaut to Madison. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Erie, Ashtabula, Meadville, Conneaut, Geneva-On-The-Lake, Corry,
Edinboro, Geneva, North East, Union City, Girard, North Kingsville,
Cambridge Springs, Orwell, Waterford, Albion, Andover, Linesville,
Wattsburg, and Pymatuning Central.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7976 4199 7961 4182 7962 4150 8052
      4150 8101 4186 8100 4187 8090 4191 8080
      4192 8072 4203 8034 4214 8009 4215 8011
      4214 8014 4217 8012 4217 8008 4215 8010
      4215 8006 4227 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 280DEG 14KT 4229 8009 4200 8058 4178 8103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Garuckas