Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
740 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The risk for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall is
decreasing, due to highest rainfall amount displaced just south
of our forecast area. Therefore, the flood watch has been
cancelled. Heavy rain will still likely accompany scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and could pose an isolated,
localized flash flood risk.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this
evening with heavy rain potentially leading to localized
flooding. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

2) A line of showers and thunderstorms will move southeast
across the area on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Latest satellite imagery shows an MCV located over the central
portion of our forecast area. Scattered rain showers accompany
this MCV and will continue through the this morning before the
MCV departs to the east by sunrise. Very limited instability
should prevent additional heavy rain and subsequent flash flood
threat through most of this morning. Therefore, the flood watch
has been cancelled a few hours early.

Another shortwave is working its way across northern Illinois
and will become the focus for additional convective development
this afternoon. Most hi-res models are keying in convection
beginning to develop near the I-75 corridor early this
afternoon, and growing upscale as it moves eastward across the
rest of the area. Sufficient build-up of moderate instability
and the presence of deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should
support a marginal severe weather threat. Strong gusty winds
will be the primary severe weather hazard.

An extremely humid airmass characterized by PWAT in the 2-2.25"
range and surface dew points in the low to mid 70s will support
efficient, heavy rainfall within any thunderstorm that traverses
the area. Progressive nature of convection this afternoon should
prevent a widespread flooding issue, but particularly vulnerable
areas (such as urban areas, or locations that have received
excessive rainfall in the past few days) could pose a localized
flash flood risk.

Isolated to scattered rain showers will linger Sunday night
into Monday morning across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front will move southeastward across the area on
Wednesday, with a line of showers thunderstorms moving impacting
the region. Confidence continues to increase in area/timing,
with PoPs increasing to 60-80% areawide, particularly during the
afternoon hours. Severe weather is a possibility, though its
questionable how much instability there will be to work with.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Patchy fog and low stratus are present across the area and
currently have a mixed bag of flight conditions early this
morning. Conditions should improve throughout the morning,
although patchy MVFR/IFR may persist through the remainder of
the morning. The next round of showers and storms will push
east into the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY by mid to late morning
before reaching eastern terminals by late afternoon. There is
still uncertainty in the exact timing and placement of
showers/storms so have prevailing showers with PROB30 groups for
thunderstorms for the time being. Any afternoon/evening showers
and storms could produce non-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Low
clouds and lake-enhanced rain showers will most likely develop
at eastern terminals behind the precip this evening, which would
produce non-VFR conditions.

Winds will shift to the southwest this morning into this
afternoon with sustained winds increasing to about 10 knots this
afternoon. Periodic gusts to 20 knots are possible this
afternoon into early this evening, primarily at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD.
Wind gusts may be variable and higher in thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening. Winds will become westerly after
00Z before shifting to the northwest towards the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and lower
ceilings across NE OH and NW PA through early Monday morning.
Non-VFR possible Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on Lake Erie will shift to the southwest and increase to
10 to 15 knots during the day today before becoming
northwesterly behind a cold front by early Monday morning. Flow
briefly becomes light and variable late Monday into early
Tuesday and expect southwest flow between 10 and 15 knots
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Winds will then
shift to the northwest and diminish behind another cold front
during the day Wednesday. Light onshore flow is expected for
much of Thursday. At this point, marine headlines are not
expected over the next few days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
336 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

OHZ003-006>011-013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-170745-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Geauga-Hancock-
Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
336 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a few
stronger storms producing strong, gusty winds. Heavy rain will
accompany any thunderstorm and may produced localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ012-014-089-PAZ001>003-170745-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lake-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
336 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1049 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

OHZ006-017-018-027-028-161530-
Seneca OH-Crawford OH-Wyandot OH-Wood OH-Hancock OH-
1049 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SENECA...WYANDOT...NORTHWESTERN
CRAWFORD...SOUTHEASTERN WOOD AND EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH
1130 AM EDT...

At 1048 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Arcadia to Arlington. Movement was east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Upper Sandusky, Forest, Arlington,
Bloomville, Sycamore, Arcadia, Vanlue, New Riegel, Carey, Benton,
Nevada, Bloomdale, Republic, Mount Blanchard, Wharton, Jenera, and
Harpster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 8352 4117 8293 4072 8320 4077 8350
      4081 8350 4082 8351 4082 8369 4084 8379
TIME...MOT...LOC 1448Z 280DEG 28KT 4117 8349 4090 8367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1126 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

OHZ018-019-027>029-036-037-161615-
Seneca OH-Crawford OH-Huron OH-Wyandot OH-Marion OH-Richland OH-
Morrow OH-
1126 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN HURON...NORTHWESTERN
RICHLAND...EASTERN SENECA...NORTHEASTERN MARION...EASTERN WYANDOT...
NORTHEASTERN MORROW AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

At 1125 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Green Springs to near
Upper Sandusky. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bucyrus, Upper Sandusky, Galion, Shelby, Willard, Ontario, Crestline,
Plymouth, New Washington, Bloomville, Sycamore, Morral, Chatfield,
Greenwich, Attica, Benton, Nevada, North Fairfield, Republic, and
Tiro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 8241 4060 8272 4074 8344 4120 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 269DEG 34KT 4119 8297 4078 8327

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1227 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

OHZ028>031-036>038-047-161715-
Holmes OH-Crawford OH-Marion OH-Richland OH-Wayne OH-Ashland OH-
Morrow OH-Knox OH-
1227 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT RICHLAND...NORTHEASTERN MARION...
ASHLAND...NORTHERN MORROW...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN HOLMES AND NORTH CENTRAL KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH
115 PM EDT...

At 1227 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Savannah to near Ontario to 8 miles northeast
of Marion. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Marion, Ashland, Mount Gilead, Galion, Ontario, Lexington,
Loudonville, Fredericktown, Bellville, Hayesville, Waterford, Butler,
Perrysville, Lucas, Caledonia, Jeromesville, Mifflin, North Liberty,
and Rowsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 8315 4076 8273 4095 8247 4091 8194
      4062 8214 4046 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 283DEG 28KT 4095 8237 4073 8266 4065 8299

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
109 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

OHZ029>032-038-047-161800-
Holmes OH-Richland OH-Stark OH-Wayne OH-Ashland OH-Knox OH-
109 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN ASHLAND...SOUTHWESTERN STARK...SOUTHERN WAYNE...HOLMES
AND KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 109 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Wooster to near Nashville to near Utica.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wooster, Mount Vernon, Millersburg, Berlin, Walnut Creek,
Loudonville, Fredericktown, Gambier, Utica, Bellville, Centerburg,
Shreve, Danville, Killbuck, Holmesville, Wilmot, Glenmont, Mount
Eaton, Nashville, and Winesburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4028 8275 4035 8274
      4034 8265 4036 8264 4055 8264 4065 8250
      4081 8215 4068 8150 4066 8148 4063 8167
      4044 8167 4045 8218 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 282DEG 41KT 4083 8195 4056 8214 4029 8247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

OHZ020>022-031-032-161815-
Summit OH-Portage OH-Stark OH-Medina OH-Wayne OH-
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTAGE...SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA...
STARK...SUMMIT AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Macedonia to near Mount
Eaton. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Canton, Ravenna, Cuyahoga Falls, Massillon, Kent, Barberton,
Green, Alliance, Hudson, Wadsworth, Twinsburg, Tallmadge, North
Canton, Streetsboro, Macedonia, Louisville, Orrville, Rittman, and
Mogadore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 8146 4075 8181 4128 8170 4132 8101
      4099 8109 4073 8109 4072 8124 4065 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 275DEG 36KT 4126 8159 4074 8171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

23