Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
749 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region through Wednesday. Confidence is increasing in
most of these rounds at least impacting the southwest half of the
forecast area (Roughly along and southwest of a Bowling Green to
Canton line) with the potential for severe thunderstorms and
repeated rounds of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding.
There is still some uncertainty on how much severe weather and
flooding potential there will be in the northeast half of the area,
as this will be dictated by the front location with each batch of
storms that moves through the region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region through Wednesday. Each round will have the
potential to bring heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized
flooding, and scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind
gusts as the primary threat.

2) Dry weather is expected on Thursday and Friday, giving a break in
the active pattern. Temperatures and humidity will taper off with
high pressure entering the region.

3) Unsettled weather may return for the weekend with more scattered
shower and storm chances across the Great Lakes region on Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
With one round of showers and storms exiting stage right into
PA, all attention turns back to the west as a new complex has
developed across northern Illinois into southwestern Lower
Michigan. This area of shower and storm activity is being fueled
by the warm air advection entering the region with the front
lifting back north after the first round of activity. In
addition, a potent low level jet with 30 to 35 kt of 925 mb flow
will provide extra support for storm activity. The main
question with this complex is: Where is it going? The activity
south of Chicago is trying to follow the instability gradient
and should allow for this activity to dive more southeast into
Indiana and potentially southwest Ohio. This cluster should
remain out of the forecast area. The more concerning portion of
the complex are the storms over southwestern Lower Michigan.
Storms are presently moving in a northeasterly direction.
Meanwhile, storms closer to Grand Rapids are more tied to a
boundary that arcs southeast into northern Ohio. Over the next
couple of hours, expect these storms to congeal over southern
Michigan. If they can organize a touch and form a cold pool,
these storms do have the potential to move southeast and push
toward the forecast area later this morning. If these storms
just remain forced by the low level jet and end up staying tied
to the surface boundary, then it is possible that this batch
could miss much of the area to the north or at least move
over/along Lake Erie. There is some elevated instability to
work with ahead of this complex and precipitable water values
around 1.75" depict that rain could have some efficiency. Storms
should also quickly perk up with daytime heating as these will
move through the region as the sun rises and activity could
become concerning quickly after daybreak once the low level
inversion mixes out.

This morning round of showers and thunderstorms will then dictate
how the rest of the day will evolve. If the activity goes through
most of the forecast area, then the front will be south of the area
and new activity would not be favored during the daytime hours. If
the morning activity stays north or just stays near Lake Erie, then
most of the forecast area will remain south of the front in a
conditionally unstable airmass with warm advection across the area.
This would then allow for scattered shower and storm activity to
develop over the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms
would then have the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts and
heavy rain that could bring localized flooding. These storms could
persist into tonight.

For tonight, all attention returns back to Wisconsin and Illinois
for the development of a new complex of showers and thunderstorms
that will move southeast along the front. Again, the location of the
front will be very important on where this complex will go - Either
into our area or to the southwest. If there is already activity in
our area this afternoon and evening, then this complex will stay
southwest but there will already be activity overhead to contend
with. If the area is dry, then there is a greater chance of this
complex reaching the forecast area. The average solution suggests
that at least the southwest half of the forecast area (Roughly along
and southwest of a line from Bowling Green to Canton) should get
some activity tonight.

For Tuesday, another southeastward diving MCS is expected to develop
west of the forecast area during the morning hours. This complex
should reach the area during the afternoon hours, favoring the
southwest portion of the forecast area, roughly along and southwest
of a Findlay to Millersburg line. Given that this complex will move
through peak heating hours with maximum instability, there should be
a severe wind threat that will materialize with this complex.
Meanwhile, forecast soundings ahead of this complex show
precipitable water values creeping back up to 1.80" showing that
this complex will bring more heavy rain to the area. With this
potentially being the third or fourth round of rain in 48 hours,
the risk for flash flooding will increase.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, the frontal boundary that has
sustained these multiple rounds of storms should be south of the
forecast area, allowing for any new development to favor areas to
the southwest. There is some potential for the boundary to be close
to our southwest counties and some scattered rain activity will be
possible through Wednesday but the main severe and heavy rain
threats should be out of the area. If the front does have trouble
clearing the area with all of the uncertainty with the previous
rounds of storms, then there could be more severe weather
potential or heavy rain/flash flooding potential on Wednesday,
which explains why some portions of northern Ohio remain in Day
3 SPC Severe and WPC Excessive Rainfall Marginal Risks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure is expected to build into the region on Thursday
from the northwest. This will bring dry weather and less
humidity into the region, giving some relief from the more muggy
weather from earlier in the week. This system will maintain
over the Great Lakes through Friday, allowing for temperatures
to drop back into the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A subtle shortwave will move through the Great Lakes region
this weekend and allow for the upper level pattern to return to
northwest flow. Like earlier in the week, this northwest flow
pattern will bring a few weak disturbances through the area on
Saturday and Sunday, each with some scattered shower and storm
chances. It is too early to tell if there will be any severe
weather or flooding hazards at this time. If temperatures remain
muted in the upper 70s, then convective activity may be
reduced.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A thunderstorm complex that recently moved through KTOL will
continue eastward across the lakeshore counties over the next 2
hours. Expect these storms to bring heavy rain and gusty winds
along with frequent lightning to KCLE by 1230Z. They will likely
clip the northern parts of KMFD and KCAK between 1230 and 13Z
then reach KERI by 14Z. Behind this lead complex, additional
showers and thunderstorms currently developing in NE Indiana
and far NW Ohio could impact KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD through late
morning, so kept at least VCSH at these sites for a couple of
extra hours.

Most of this afternoon should be dry and VFR at all terminals,
then we will wait to see where the next round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Considerable uncertainty still
exists for tonight in terms of coverage of rain and thunder, but
the best potential for thunder appears to be from a KTOL to KFDY
to KMFD line, with KMFD seeing the most frequent thunder.
Changes to the forecast are likely, so expect a lot of TAF
amendments.

Light S to SW winds early this morning outside of thunderstorms
will increase by mid to late morning and become gusty through
the afternoon. Expect SW winds of 10-15 knots by this afternoon,
gusting to 20-25 knots at times. SW winds will decrease this
evening, with 5-10 knot speeds tonight.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected through
Thursday as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms move
across the airspace. Some storms could be strong to severe
during this timeframe.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds will increase to 15-20 knots later this morning through
the afternoon behind a warm front. This will build wave heights
to over 4 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern
basins. At this point, expect the biggest waves and strongest
winds to be in the open waters, so did not issue a Small Craft
Advisory, but it will be very close. Boaters should nonetheless
expect choppy conditions.

Winds will become light and variable tonight, and expect that to
largely be the case through Wednesday as a frontal boundary
oscillates just south of the lake. Stronger winds averaging a N
direction will then begin late Wednesday and continue through
Friday as the front finally pushes south and Canadian high
pressure attempts to build across the Great Lakes.

Otherwise, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will impact the lake
today through Wednesday. Any organized storms that cross the
lake could produce locally strong winds over 50 knots and high
waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ147>149.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-
036>038-047-PAZ002-003-110815-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Southern Erie-
411 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected this morning and
again this evening into tonight. Location and timing of storms this
evening and overnight will depending on storms moving through the
region this morning. Any storms this morning could have gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. Storms tonight could produce damaging winds, a
tornado or two, and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday could produce heavy
rainfall, flash flooding, and localized severe weather, but
confidence on location of storms remains low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-110815-
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
411 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected this morning and
again this evening into tonight. Location and timing of storms this
evening and overnight will depending on storms moving through the
region this morning. Any storms this morning could have gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. Storms tonight could produce damaging winds, a
tornado or two, and flash flooding.

There is a moderate swimming risk on the beaches of Lake Erie for
Lake and Ashtabula Counties in Ohio and Erie County, Pennsylvania.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday could produce heavy
rainfall, flash flooding, and localized severe weather, but
confidence on location of storms remains low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
659 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 W Harbor View         41.69N 83.47W
08/10/2026  M39 MPH          Lucas              OH   Buoy

            34 knot wind gust. Buoy station THRO1
            Toledo, OH.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

OHZ003-007-008-018-101145-
Seneca OH-Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH-Lucas OH-
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OTTAWA...NORTHERN SENECA...
SANDUSKY AND NORTHEASTERN LUCAS COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM EDT...

At 659 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Oregon to Woodville to 6 miles
north of Fostoria. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fremont, Port Clinton, Put-In-Bay, Bellevue, Clyde, Oak Harbor,
Gibsonburg, Genoa, Woodville, Elmore, Green Springs, Ballville,
Catawba Island, Marblehead, Bettsville, Risingsun, Lindsey, Rocky
Ridge, Clay Center, and Helena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 8342 4169 8334 4164 8323 4161 8310
      4153 8298 4151 8299 4155 8286 4169 8281
      4166 8281 4167 8279 4155 8284 4154 8272
      4151 8272 4149 8296 4145 8304 4142 8294
      4144 8285 4122 8284 4121 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1059Z 261DEG 42KT 4167 8327 4144 8334 4126 8342

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
732 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

OHZ009-019-101215-
Huron OH-Erie OH-
732 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HURON AND ERIE COUNTIES
THROUGH 815 AM EDT...

At 732 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Put-In-Bay to near Bellevue. Movement was
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sandusky, Norwalk, Western Vermilion, Kelleys Island, Bellevue,
Northern Milan, Milan, Wakeman, Castalia, Monroeville, Berlin
Heights, Bloomingville, Sandusky South, Birmingham, and Fairview
Lanes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 8267 4148 8270 4138 8250 4143 8235
      4126 8234 4117 8283 4144 8285 4147 8282
      4144 8276 4146 8271 4148 8271 4158 8269
      4161 8273 4162 8272 4161 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 1132Z 250DEG 45KT 4160 8280 4131 8283

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sefcovic

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