Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Cleveland, OH

088 
WWUS51 KCLE 280539
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

OHC095-123-173-280600-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-260728T0600Z/
Ottawa OH-Wood OH-Lucas OH-
139 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT
FOR OTTAWA...NORTHEASTERN WOOD AND NORTHEASTERN LUCAS COUNTIES...

At 139 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Toledo, moving
southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Perrysburg, Oregon, Sylvania, Rossford, Northwood, Genoa,
Maumee, Ottawa Hills, Walbridge, Millbury, Luckey, Clay Center,
Harbor View, Williston, and Stony Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 8346 4173 8345 4172 8347 4172 8344
      4156 8316 4150 8335 4150 8341 4145 8350
      4172 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 302DEG 43KT 4171 8357 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

04

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
751 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A line of convection continues to push east across the Mahoning
valley this evening, remaining sub-severe with isolated wind
gusts up to 20-25 knots possible and small hail. The severe
threat across northern Ohio this evening has significantly
decreased with SPC now highlighting the area in a Slight Risk.
Additional storms are possible beginning around midnight tonight
as the cold front pushes east. There is a small chance that some
of those storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds the
primary concern, but given the unfavorable timing confidence
remains low on the intensity of that convection. Overall, the
area should see a lull in any convection/precipitation over the
next couple hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will first move into the area between 5
and 8 PM. A few could be severe with damaging winds and heavy rain
the main hazards, but the storms with the greatest severity and
organization should stay west of the area.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms with lower severe potential
will accompany a cold front overnight.

3) A few lingering showers in NE Ohio and NW PA Tuesday and
Wednesday, but otherwise drier, much cooler, and less humid through
the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The forecast continues to be very challenging and
low confidence this evening and tonight in terms of how upstream
convection will evolve and impact our region. Two complexes of
thunderstorms are currently ongoing. The largest and most
organized of the two complexes (MCS's) is currently propagating
S to SE across eastern Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, western Lower
Michigan, northern Illinois, and NW Indiana. This MCS has
produced widespread significant wind damage and multiple
tornadoes but will continue to make a hard right turn to the S
as it follows the eastern periphery of the thermal ridge, where
a very impressive theta e/instability gradient is draped from N
to S along a quasi-stationary front. This will allow this
MCS to largely miss our area to the west this evening, but the
eastern edge of it may clip the I-75 corridor in the roughly
21-00Z (5 to 8 PM) timeframe with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

The second and smaller of the two MCS's is located
over southern Lake Huron and southern Ontario Province. This MCS
is being more directly forced by the strong mid/upper shortwave trough
that is seen on water vapor imagery digging into the northern
Great Lakes this afternoon. As this shortwave dives through the
central Great Lakes this evening, the left exit of a 115-120
knot H3 jet streak will generate strong synoptic forcing to
sustain this MCS, as well as strengthen a surface low that will
move SE into southern Ontario tonight. Despite lower
instability across northern Ohio and NW PA (2000 MLCAPE)
compared to the extreme instability feeding the larger Lake
Michigan MCS, the combination of the jet support and surface low
should maintain this Lake Huron convection into our area.
Current trajectories time this MCS to reach NE Ohio and NW PA in
the 22 to 23Z (6 to 7 PM) timeframe. The aforementioned
sufficient MLCAPE combined with 40-50 knots of effective deep
layer bulk shear oriented perpendicular to the convection will
support at least scattered severe winds, especially as the
boundary layer continues to warm late this afternoon, with DCAPE
increasing to over 1000 J/Kg. Even in the absence of severe
weather, most areas will see some rain and thunder with this
activity.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a lull early tonight, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front as the
mid/upper jet support moves overhead tied to the shortwave
crossing the central Great Lakes. The convection this evening
should overturn the atmosphere and effectively use much of the
instability, but the aforementioned left exit region dynamics
will encourage strong forcing ahead of the cold front to get the
additional convection going overnight. This convection should
generally not be severe given the lower instability, but gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Maintained
high POPS overnight until the cold front clears the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The mid/upper shortwave will become vertically stacked with the
surface low and close off over upstate New York by Tuesday
evening. This along with the parent longwave mid/upper trough
becoming negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS by Wednesday
and Thursday will allow the system to evolve into a coastal low
near Long Island. The result for northern Ohio and NW PA will
be broad cyclonic flow and associated cold air advection Tuesday
through Thursday. A secondary front or surface trough dropping
through the region Tuesday afternoon combined with the
deepening trough aloft will generate scattered showers, mainly
in interior NE Ohio and NW PA, so increased POPS Tuesday
afternoon. Otherwise, wraparound moisture in the cyclonic flow
combined with cold air advection across the warm lakes will lead
to periodic lake enhanced showers over far NE Ohio and NW PA
through Wednesday before Canadian high pressure finally builds
into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late Wednesday and
persists through the end of the week, supporting pleasantly cool
and dry conditions areawide. Low temperatures will drop into
the 50s both Thursday and Friday mornings allowing the air
conditioners to get a break before gradual warming over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A narrow line of sub-severe convection is making its way east
through the Mahoning Valley this evening, but should depart east
of the area shortly after 00Z. Another round of convection is
expected late this evening into the early overnight hours as a
cold front moves across the area. This complex of convection can
currently be observed in northern MI and will be the area to
watch in the coming hours. With this line, expect diminished
conditions as reduced visibilities and falling ceilings will
quickly transition terminals from VFR to IFR. If the
precipitation dissipates before reaching northern Ohio, still
expect ceilings to be high end IFR (around 800-900 feet) to low
end MVFR (1-2kft). Confidence is rather low in the timing given
widespread amongst models, but expecting at least rain showers
for much of the area. Conditions will remain diminished through
late morning/early afternoon on Tuesday before lifting to VFR by
the afternoon across the entire area.

Winds of 5-11 knots from the southwest will persist through
tonight with isolated gusts up to 20 knots. In areas with
convection, some gusts may be higher but that will depend on the
intensity of convection. As the front moves east Tuesday
morning, winds will shift to north-northwesterly and increase to
10-13 knots with widespread gusts of 20-25 knots possible
through the end of this TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR may persist in lower ceilings and scattered
showers through Wednesday, primarily across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Non-VFR possible in scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely this
evening and tonight and winds/waves will likely be higher in any
storms. Southwest winds will shift to the northwest and
increase to 15 to 25 knots early Tuesday morning through much of
Wednesday. The highest winds/waves will be in the nearshore and
open waters of the central basin. Small Craft Advisories and
Beach Hazards Statements have been issued from the Islands to
Conneaut Tuesday morning through late Wednesday evening and from
Conneaut to Ripley NY from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon. Small Craft conditions may briefly occur west of the
Islands early Tuesday morning so will need to monitor that area
for a brief expansion.

Northwest winds to 10 to 15 knots will continue through Thursday
with more light and variable flow and daily lake breezes developing
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late
     Wednesday night for OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday afternoon through
     Wednesday afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for LEZ144>148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday
     for LEZ149.

&&

DISCUSSION...04/Garuckas
AVIATION...04
MARINE...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
404 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

OHZ009>012-089-282015-
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
404 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather through
tonight. Primary hazards in thunderstorms will be damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

LEZ061-144>149-164>169-OHZ013-014-019>023-028>033-036>038-047-PAZ002-
003-282015-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-
Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Southern Erie-
404 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather through
tonight. Primary hazards in thunderstorms will be damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

PAZ001-282015-
Northern Erie-
404 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather through
tonight. Primary hazards in thunderstorms will be damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

LEZ142-143-162-163-OHZ003-006-008-017-018-027-282015-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Wyandot-
404 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather through
tonight. Primary hazards in thunderstorms will be damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

OHZ007-282015-
Ottawa-
404 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather through
tonight. Primary hazards in thunderstorms will be damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents Tuesday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
113 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

OHZ003-006-007-280600-
Wood OH-Ottawa OH-Lucas OH-
113 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT OTTAWA...NORTHERN WOOD AND LUCAS
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

At 113 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Deerfield, or near Blissfield, moving southeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, Oregon, Sylvania, Rossford,
Waterville, Northwood, Whitehouse, Genoa, Holland, Weston, Maumee,
Ottawa Hills, Walbridge, Millbury, Haskins, Luckey, Grand Rapids, and
Rocky Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8387 4173 8346 4173 8345 4172 8347
      4169 8343 4169 8335 4171 8334 4164 8323
      4159 8306 4156 8310 4148 8334 4150 8335
      4150 8341 4145 8341 4129 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 312DEG 50KT 4187 8382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04