Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm potential continues this afternoon and
evening, with additional chances over the weekend. Heat risk
continues through Saturday. Heat headlines will need to be re-
issued for Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot this weekend.

2) Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return later
today with better opportunities for rainfall this weekend into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Heat and humidity last into the holiday weekend. We will need to
issue a new Heat Advisory for the July 4th holiday though
confidence in sites reaching the criteria is slightly lower
compared to previous days. However, given the increased
vulnerability with the prolonged nature of this heat wave and
expected number of large outdoor gatherings, felt that a Heat
Advisory will be justified despite maximum heat index values
largely in the upper 90s. Drink plenty of water and avoid
caffeine and alcohol. Be sure to take regular breaks in air-
conditioned locations! For people without effective cooling,
especially heat-sensitive groups, this level of heat can be
deadly. High temperatures will return to more seasonable values
in the mid to upper 80s Sunday onward.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper level ridge will begin to breakdown as more zonal flow
takes over the weather pattern to begin the holiday weekend. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase this
afternoon/evening. Hi-res guidance continues to hint at isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing later today. Weak forcing
will likely lead to thunderstorms primarily initiating off of
lingering outflow boundaries. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
remains in effect across the entire forecast area today given
the robust thermodynamic environment with MLCAPE values in
excess of 2500 J/kg and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg. Primary hazard will
be damaging wind gusts in a few strong to severe clusters of
thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Saturday,
particularly in the afternoon and evening. There may be a bit
more upper level support as a shortwave moves overhead that will
trigger showers and storms in the afternoon. More robust
forcing comes Sunday and Monday as an upper trough digs across
the eastern Great Lakes which will likely increase coverage of
showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend and begin next
week.

Given the very moist airmass in place with PWATs of 1.5 to 2 inches
any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
Excessive rainfall both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are seen across the region currently with
scattered clouds around 4-5kft and will continue for the next
several hours. There is low confidence in thunderstorms forming
this afternoon and early evening and impacting terminals. If
this does occur, it would be along a boundary from south of
KERI southwest through KFDY. Though, with low confidence in
impacts to terminals, opted to leave off of this TAF issuance.
There is more confidence is late evening thunderstorms impacting
KTOL, KFDY, and KCLE around 23-05Z. Confidence is lower the
further south and east of KCLE, so continued the PROB30 wording
for those TAF sites. Another round of thunderstorms are possible
early Saturday morning, though confidence is still low in
impacting TAF sites. VFR is expected for much of the end of the
TAF period with more thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon
and evening.

Winds through the TAF period will generally be out of the west-
southwest at 7-12 knots and occasionally gusting up to 15-20
knots. Within thunderstorms, can expect stronger gusts up to 40
knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in occasional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR possible
Sunday evening into Monday morning with showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be out of the southwest this afternoon at 5-15 knots
with waves generally 2 feet or less. Conditions should continue
through Saturday evening. There will be thunderstorms chances
through this weekend which could briefly increase winds and
waves within and around storms. Weak low pressure and a cold
front will pass over Lake Erie late Sunday night and shift winds
to be out of the east to northeast at 5-15 knots by Monday
morning. Waves could be choppy in the near shore with the
onshore flow, but should stay below 2 feet. High pressure begins
to build over the region late Monday and winds and waves will
begin to subside into Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity is expected again today. Record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)
07-04   100(2012)      96(2012)       98(1990)       99(1911)       99(1897)       99(1990)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-041900-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area today with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-041900-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area today with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-041900-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area today with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
624 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

OHZ003-006>008-032315-
Wood OH-Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH-Lucas OH-
624 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OTTAWA...WESTERN SANDUSKY...WOOD
AND LUCAS COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 623 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Monroe to near Mcclure. Movement was
southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Bowling Green, Fremont, Fostoria, Port Clinton, Put-In-Bay,
Perrysburg, Oregon, Sylvania, Rossford, Waterville, Northwood,
Whitehouse, North Baltimore, Oak Harbor, Gibsonburg, Genoa,
Woodville, Holland, and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8387 4173 8347 4162 8313 4174 8311
      4162 8312 4154 8301 4151 8299 4155 8286
      4168 8286 4172 8281 4153 8282 4153 8279
      4145 8303 4145 8297 4125 8329 4125 8342
      4117 8343 4117 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 298DEG 43KT 4192 8334 4137 8389

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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