Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
319 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Slight Risk for Tuesday has been expanded to include nearly
the entire forecast area. Otherwise, no significant changes
were made with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The hottest temperatures of the year thus far will continue
through Tuesday. The heat will break behind a cold front on
Wednesday with below normal temperatures continuing into
Thursday.

2) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Northwest
Ohio and possibly close to the lakeshore this afternoon into
early this evening. Another round of strong to severe storms is
possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

3) Unsettled weather with periods of rain expected and
thunderstorms possible over the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Deep warm air advection will remain in place across the area
over the next couple of days, resulting in above normal to near
record temperatures across the area through Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain in the 80s to around 90 degrees through
the remainder of this afternoon with temps into the upper 60s
and lower 70s tonight. Temperatures will decrease a bit faster
in locations that receive rain (most likely NW OH) this
afternoon. Temperatures will once again rise into the 80s and
possibly touch 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon, although confidence
in temps reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s (and possibly
touching record values) is slightly lower than today due to low-
end chances of morning showers, afternoon convection, and
increased cloud cover. Dew points will likely be a bit higher on
Tuesday afternoon so it will definitely feel muggy. Those
spending time outside this afternoon and during the day Tuesday
should wear light/loose-fitting clothing and hydrate and
sensitive groups should consider limiting time outdoors during
peak heating.

Temperatures will cool down for mid to late week with highs in
the 60s expected Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As of 230 PM EDT, a line of severe thunderstorms was moving
east across Indiana. There is a very tight instability gradient
that ends just within the western fringe of the local area so
anticipate storms to quickly weaken as they encounter less
instability later this afternoon and early this evening.
Nonetheless, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are
possible, especially in the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) area
that's in place across the Toledo area as the storms move in
over the next couple of hours. Isolated stronger storms are
possible in the northern portion of the area where there is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. Damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat, however large hail is possible
and a quick spin-up can't be ruled out in the Slight Risk area.

Once convection weakens this evening, scattered showers may
persist across NW OH through the overnight hours with low-end
PoPs expanding east across the local area Tuesday morning. The
moist, unstable air mass will remain in place over the area on
Tuesday, especially if the forecast trends drier and sunnier
than currently forecast. MLCAPE values will likely exceed 2000
J/kg by peak heating Tuesday with effective bulk shear values
likely increasing to 30+ knots as a cold front advances east
towards the area Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening,
although there's some uncertainty in the placement of convective
initiation and exact timing of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
development will likely rely on early day cloud cover and any
showers that develop Tuesday morning. Given the instability and
shear profile, storms may be strong to severe and there is a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across nearly the
entire area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern,
but some storms may produce large hail. A few tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A period of dry weather is expected Wednesday through Thursday
before precipitation chances increase Friday through the
holiday weekend as weak low pressure and a frontal boundary
slowly drift north across the Ohio Valley. There's still quite a
bit of uncertainty in the timing and coverage of showers (and
possibly a few thunderstorms) over Memorial Day Weekend, but at
the moment it looks like the best chances of precipitation will
occur Friday night and Sunday into Monday. Confidence in the
likelihood of hazardous weather is low this far out, but will
continue to monitor trends in guidance and adjust the
forecast/key messages as necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
All eyes will be on the line of convection currently marching
through Indiana as of 1730Z. Expect this to move into northwest OH
over the next few hours with strong storms expected and gusts at the
TOL/FDY terminals, but then should weaken fairly rapidly as it
continues eastward. Will include TSRA at CLE and MFD as this line of
convection deteriorates, but not any further eastward. Winds
southwesterly will gust to 30kts. May ease a bit overnight, and at
TOL/FDY where the low level jet is more pronounced, LLWS possible
tonight. Southwesterly winds gusting to 30kts continues again
Tuesday, and expect another round of convection to develop, but
affects for our area will lie just beyond the forecast period/18Z
Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible in showers on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest/offshore winds 15-25kts through Tuesday and wave heights
increasing rapidly away from shore with 1-3ft in the nearshore zones
and 2-4ft in the open water zones. A cold front comes through
Tuesday night with northerly winds 10-15kts through Wednesday,
increasing to 15-20kts out of the northeast Thursday and 2-4ft waves
for the central and western basins. Winds become light and variable
into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures today and Tuesday will approach record values.
The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local climate
sites.

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
05-18   95(1962)  92(1962)   91(1962)    92(1962)   92(1962)    89(1889)
05-19   92(1996)  88(1964)   88(1998)    91(1911)   89(1934)    90(1996)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Sullivan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

LEZ061-144>149-164>169-OHZ009>014-019>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-191945-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
333 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into NW
Ohio late this afternoon, and may continue east across northern Ohio
and Lake Erie, into Northwest Pennsylvania. A few thunderstorms may
produce damaging wind gusts along with hail to quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases on Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms may be severe Tuesday afternoon and evening with
damaging winds, hail to quarter size, and an isolated tornado
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142-143-162-163-OHZ003-006>008-017-018-191945-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-
333 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into NW
Ohio late this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging
wind gusts along with hail to quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases on Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms may be severe Tuesday afternoon and evening with
damaging winds, hail to quarter size, and an isolated tornado
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
355 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

OHZ003-182015-
Lucas OH-
355 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LUCAS COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Delta, or near Swanton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sylvania and Berkey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cleveland.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8387 4173 8372 4172 8368 4159 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 232DEG 33KT 4166 8397

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sefcovic