River Flood Warning 5, NWS Cleveland, OH

457 
WGUS41 KCLE 010353
FLWCLE

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1153 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Chagrin River At Willoughby affecting Lake County.

For the Chagrin River...including Willoughby...Moderate flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/cle.

The next statement will be issued Wednesday morning at 1000 AM EDT.

&&

OHC085-011400-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260402T0321Z/
/WBYO1.2.ER.260401T0330Z.260401T1200Z.260401T2121Z.NO/
1153 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chagrin River at Willoughby.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 15.0 feet, Flood waters threaten properties along 
  Dodd Road in Willoughby Hills. Properties on Riverside Drive 
  impacted in Eastlake.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 11.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 15.0
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.

  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 8144 4167 8141 4163 8138 4157 8139
      4157 8144 4163 8142


$$

Sullivan

934 
WGUS81 KCLE 010928
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
528 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Chagrin River At Willoughby affecting Lake County.

OHC085-011030-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260401T0928Z/
/WBYO1.2.ER.260401T0330Z.260401T0615Z.260401T0817Z.NO/
528 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Chagrin River At Willoughby.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM EDT Wednesday the stage was 10.4 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue falling today.

  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 8144 4167 8141 4163 8138 4157 8139
      4157 8144 4163 8142


$$

Sullivan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence has increased that a cluster of strong to severe
storms with gusty winds, some hail, and heavy rain will move
west to east across the area late this afternoon and evening.
Another round of storms with some severe weather potential and a
better potential for heavy rain and localized flooding is still
expected tonight. The rest of the forecast and messaging remains
the same through the weekend, as additional rounds of showers
and storms are expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will sweep across
the region late this afternoon and evening. The main impact will
be gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but hail and a couple of
brief tornadoes are possible too.

2) A second round of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall is expected tonight. Heavy rainfall is the bigger
concern with this overnight round, with widespread amounts of 1
to 1.25 inches possible through Wednesday, and locally higher
where training occurs. This could cause flooding of urban, low-
lying, and other flood prone areas.

3) Lower impact system Thursday and Friday, with occasional
showers and storms and a return of very warm temperatures.

4) A stronger system brings a greater potential for severe
storms and heavy rainfall late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Quasi-zonal flow continues across the southern Great Lakes
region this afternoon overtop a flat mid/upper ridge over the SE
CONUS. An active stationary front remains draped across Lower
Michigan and southern Ontario along the northern edge of this
ridge, and this boundary continues to serve as the focus for a
series of shortwaves and associated weak surface lows.

One shortwave and associated mid-level speed max, characterized
by 700 mb flow over 50 knots, is currently crossing northern
Indiana and SW Lower Michigan. This shortwave and its associated
40+ knot low-level jet is driving a Mesoscale Convective System
(MCS) that will move into NW Ohio by 19Z. The downstream
environment across northern Ohio and western PA has sufficiently
destabilized this afternoon to support severe weather due to a
rapid uptick in shear expected as the wave approaches. Current
mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, with around 1500
J/Kg of SBCAPE, beneath a stout EML plume (7 to 7.5 C/Km mid-
level lapse rates). Westerly Deep layer shear will increase to
40-50 knots ahead of the wave, with vectors oriented
perpendicular to the north-south oriented line of convection on
the front edge of the MCS, and this combined with the moderate
instability will support forward propagation of the MCS late
this afternoon and evening and associated wind risk. PWATs of 1
to 1.2 inches (90th percentile of climatology) will also lead to
brief heavy rain as the complex progresses across the region.
While wind and heavy rain are the biggest hazards, low-level
(0-1 Km) shear increasing to 20-30 knots and effective SRH
increasing to 250-300 m2/s2 could support a couple of brief
tornadoes embedded within the main line or with any semi
discrete cells that develop ahead of it. The aforementioned
steep mid-level lapse rates also support occasional large hail,
especially with any semi discrete cells. The overall highest
severe weather risk appears to be east of I-71 this evening,
where higher instability has built up the past few hours. This
is especially the case for damaging winds given higher low-level
lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/Km leading to higher DCAPE in NE Ohio
and NW PA.

In terms of timing, the convection should reach the I-75
corridor by 20Z, the I-71 and I-77 corridors by 22Z, and should
be over NW PA by 23 to 00Z.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
After a short break during the mid evening hours, the shortwave
and associated surface low exiting east across the eastern Great
Lakes tonight will start to push the stationary front SE across
the region as a cold front. Another line of convection is
expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front as large
scale forcing for ascent increases. Shear will remain moderate
to high overnight with the presence of an enhanced low-level
jet, so a few severe storms are possible (mainly wind and a
brief tornado or two) where surges and bows occur in the QLCS.
However, the atmosphere will be pretty worked over from the
earlier evening convection, and this combined with the overnight
timing should limit the severe weather threat.

The bigger concern overnight is heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. The front will slow in forward progress as the night
progresses and will become aligned parallel to the W to WSW low
and mid-level flow. This combined with the 35-40 knot low-
level jet will lead to training convection within the
QLCS/backbuilding. On top of that, PWATs will increase to over
1.25 inches (near the daily max of sounding climatology) with
Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) in the 90th to 97th
percentile, and this all combined with a skinny CAPE profile all
points to swaths of very heavy rainfall and efficient rainfall
rates. A widespread 1 to 1.25 inches of rain is likely through
Wednesday morning, but locally higher totals of 2 to 3 inches+
are possible where training occurs. This could lead to flash
flooding of low-lying, urban, and other prone areas, as well as
potential river flooding if enough falls in a basin.

Much of the area will try to dry out Wednesday as the front
temporarily sags into southern or central Ohio and Canadian high
pressure over the northern Great Lakes tries to influence at
least the north half of our region. However, a swath of showers
will continue north of the frontal boundary where isentropic
ascent will be persistent, so the southern and central counties
(south of I-80) may hold onto off and on light rain much of the
day. If the front is slightly farther north or south, than the
location of the swath of showers will change. The overall
impact and message Wednesday is that it will be a cold and damp
day, with highs held into the mid 40s to low 50s. Showers will
definitely increase Wednesday evening and Wednesday night as
the front slowly lifts back north.

KEY MESSAGE #3:
The next mid/upper shortwave ejecting across the Plains Thursday
will spawn another surface low that will lift into the northern
Great Lakes by Friday morning. The front should continue lifting
north Thursday morning ahead of this developing low, so most of
the leftover showers should be north of the region by midday.
This will set up a mainly dry and very warm afternoon in the
warm sector. As the low tracks from the northern Great Lakes
through northern Ontario Friday, the front will sag back SE as a
cold front. However, it is looking increasingly likely that the
boundary will stay NW of the region as it stalls in response to
yet another developing low in the Plains. This points to
slightly higher coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms
Friday compared to Thursday, but any heavy rain or severe threat
should be isolated, so lower impact than the mid week
convection. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to near 80
Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE #4:
The next surface low mentioned above developing in the Plains
Friday will lift across the Great Lakes Saturday and early
Sunday. This low will be stronger and will be the final wave to
kick this old frontal boundary out of the region as it's
associated with a strong mid/upper trough digging into the Great
Lakes. Given the better dynamics and strength of this system,
severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible late
Saturday and Saturday night, depending on the timing. This will
be monitored. Much colder air will settle into the region behind
this system for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Highly convective environment this evening into tonight with
rounds of TSRA expected for a few more hours before a cold front
finally sinks southward across northern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania. Expect observations to fluctuate in and out of
showers and storms. As far as convective winds go, FDY has the
best chances for strong wind gusts to 40kts or higher as that
area has not seen much in the way of activity. Further north and
east, expecting gusts to be limited to the 30-35kt range in
storms as the surface air is a bit more stable now after the
first complex earlier this evening. After the cold front comes
through, ceilings to drop to IFR and remain there pretty much
through the duration of the TAF. Rain will be off and on
Wednesday in these low ceilings, so restrictions through much of
the forecast should ultimately be expected one way or another.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and low ceilings Wednesday
afternoon. Additional periods of non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, though
appears most likely on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist across Lake
Erie into tonight. Though winds may occasionally gust up to 25
knots, believe most of the higher winds should be confined along the
nearshore given the cold lake surface temperatures. Thus, have opted
against a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds will briefly
shift towards the north behind a cold front on Wednesday, 10 to 15
knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots and gradually becoming east to
northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. May need a brief Small
Craft Advisory Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the
onshore flow near 20 knots. Winds will return to the southwest as
the cold front lifts back north as a warm front late Thursday into
Friday, 15 to 20 knots.

Another item of concern this afternoon and evening will be the
threat of strong winds greater than 40 knots associated with a line
of thunderstorms moving west to east across Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
303 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-011915-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
303 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Area creeks and rivers will continue rising into Wednesday as rain
continues. Some prone rivers may approach or reach minor flood
stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS.

LEZ142>149-162>169-011915-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-
on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
303 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-011915-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
303 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front this afternoon and
evening may produce strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
919 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     Hail             2 ESE Austintown        41.09N 80.70W
03/31/2026  M0.70 Inch       Mahoning           OH   Trained Spotter

            Dime-sized hail on Chapel Hill Drive.

&&

Sefcovic

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
944 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Cuyahoga Heights  41.42N 81.65W
03/31/2026                   Cuyahoga           OH   Law Enforcement

            Interstate 77 south closed at State Route 21
            due to high water. Several cars are
            submerged on the interstate and getting
            towed out.

&&

Sefcovic

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
952 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE East Cleveland    41.55N 81.57W
03/31/2026                   Cuyahoga           OH   Law Enforcement

            Ivanhoe Road at Euclid Ave closed due to
            several feet of high water.

&&

Sefcovic

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1006 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Chatfield         40.99N 82.93W
03/31/2026                   Crawford           OH   Emergency Mngr

            EMA relayed a report of up to 27
            transmission lines down on SR 4 South of
            Carrothers in northern Crawford County. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

Sefcovic

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1025 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Apple Creek       40.73N 81.88W
03/31/2026                   Wayne              OH   Law Enforcement

            Tree through a house on Honeytown Road.
            Residents trapped in the basement. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

Sefcovic

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1109 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Flood            1 NNW Warrensville Heig 41.45N 81.53W
03/31/2026                   Cuyahoga           OH   Amateur Radio

            State Route 8 in Highland Hills covered by
            at least a foot of water.

&&

JS