River Flood Warning 24, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
713 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Given the current trends, thunderstorms during the day seem less
likely, though are still possible. Showers and thunderstorms still
remain on track along and ahead of the cold front this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a
higher chance along and ahead of the cold front this evening. Some
storms may be strong to severe with possible isolated damaging winds
and up to quarter size hail.

2) Below average temperatures with high pressure building in
starting Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Potential for
frost/freeze Tuesday morning.

3) Unsettled weather returns mid week with a low pressure system
moving through the Great Lakes region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Residual low level clouds from early morning precipitation have
started to dissipate in western and northern Ohio and should
continue to clear out throughout the afternoon. Temperatures as a
result have started to climb up into the low to mid 60s with dew
points in the low 50s. Instability will increase as well with the
temperatures, though how much it increases will be dependent on if
temperatures can climb a bit higher in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Currently, MLCAPE is forecast to be around 500-1000 J/kg and MUCAPE
near 1000 J/kg by later this afternoon with a few areas possibly
reaching above that. Winds shear will also increase ahead of the
approaching cold front, though will be on the weaker side with bulk
shear around 40 knots. Freezing levels will be low as well, which
could support some hail, though given the conditions above, hail
around quarter size or less seems realistic. There will also be a
strong with an isolated damaging wind threat along and ahead of the
cold front. The cold front will pass through the region between late
tonight into early tomorrow morning which could carry a strong wind
threat with it. Though with instability waning into the late
evening, the severe threat will become less likely and should
anticipate more showers than thunderstorms.

Scattered rain showers will likely linger behind the cold front
across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA into Sunday
morning. High pressure builds in Sunday afternoon and rain will
clear out by then. Rain totals through tomorrow morning will be
minimal, with highest amounts in more persistent rainfall being
around a half an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will begin to build in Sunday afternoon with generally
west to northwesterly low level flow across the region through
Tuesday afternoon. Current models have 850 temperatures dropping
down to 0 to -3C Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning with winds
becoming light to calm during the time frame underneath the high
pressure. Drier upper level air will be moving in late Monday as
well which should clear the region out of any cloud cover by
Tuesday. This will create the potential for some frost/freeze across
the region Tuesday morning as temperatures will drop down into the
mid to upper 30s with some locations dropping into the low 30s. The
colder of those temperatures look to be in eastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania away from the lakeshore. Flow will shift
to be out of the southwest Tuesday afternoon on the west side of the
high pressure and temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to
low 60s for highs.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A low pressure system will enter the region late Tuesday night as a
upper level trough ejects out of the Canadian plains and moves
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Precipitation will begin to
move in late Tuesday night and persist through much of the day
Wednesday. Don't anticipate much thunder with the system given the
arrival time, though a rumble of thunder would still be possible out
west Tuesday night and then again out east with the front midday
Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rain is possible at times which could
lead to some higher precipitation totals by the end of the day
Wednesday. Will need to monitor the development of the system over
the next few days to see the potential for any rainfall related
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Non-VFR conditions are expected in a line of pre-frontal
showers and thunderstorms early in the TAF period. Showers and
storms will exit to the southeast within the next few hours,
although some lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms may
develop with the cold front later this evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected outside of showers and storms with VFR
anticipated on Sunday.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and diminish
to 10 knots or less relatively quickly this evening. Gusts to
about 35 knots are likely in thunderstorms at southeastern
terminals for the first few hours of the TAF period.
North/northwest winds may increase a bit during the day Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in widespread showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday. Non-VFR may
linger across the eastern half of the area in rain showers and
low ceilings on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week
with no headlines anticipated. Main concern will be the threat for
strong thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening with the
potential for gusty winds in excess of 34 knots, particularly across
the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. Otherwise, relatively
light winds of less than 15 knots are expected through Tuesday.
Slightly stronger south to southwest flow of 15 to 20 knots will
develop Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front, with
winds shifting towards the west to northwest behind the front
Wednesday night, 15 to 20 knots. Will continue to monitor for Small
Craft potential during this period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
729 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

OHZ003-006>014-017>019-027-028-036-037-089-PAZ001-002-102330-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-Marion-Morrow-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
729 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-102330-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
729 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ029>033-038-047-102330-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-
729 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible this evening. Damaging winds and
hail up to quarter-sized are the main risks with any strong
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ020>023-PAZ003-102330-
Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Crawford-
729 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong thunderstorms are possible this evening. Damaging winds and
hail up to quarter-sized are the main risks with any strong
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
638 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Cleveland         41.50N 81.73W
05/09/2026  M53 MPH          LEZ146             OH   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XCLE Cleveland - Edgewater.

&&

dk

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
643 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 E South Amherst       41.35N 82.18W
05/09/2026  M47 MPH          Lorain             OH   ASOS

            ASOS station KLPR Lorain Elyria.

&&

dk

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
651 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

OHZ014-023-089-PAZ001>003-092345-
Trumbull OH-Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
Northern Erie PA-Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
651 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN TRUMBULL...ASHTABULA...
ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Erie to near Geneva to near Warrensville
Heights. Movement was southeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Erie, Meadville, Conneaut, Cortland, Corry, Edinboro, Titusville,
Union City, Girard, Cambridge Springs, Kinsman, North Bloomfield,
Orwell, Waterford, Albion, Andover, Linesville, West Farmington,
Wattsburg, and Adamsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
northeastern Ohio...and northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 7962 4162 7982 4149 8000 4149 8052
      4131 8053 4135 8100 4172 8100 4184 8081
      4208 8013 4218 7976 4201 7976 4199 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 293DEG 49KT 4211 8018 4173 8094 4143 8157

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sullivan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
709 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Parma Heights      41.41N 81.78W
05/09/2026                   Cuyahoga           OH   Public

            Two telephone poles snapped.

&&

dk

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
712 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

OHZ013-020>023-029>031-033-100000-
Summit OH-Geauga OH-Portage OH-Richland OH-Mahoning OH-Medina OH-
Trumbull OH-Wayne OH-Ashland OH-
712 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TRUMBULL...PORTAGE...NORTHWESTERN
MAHONING...NORTHERN RICHLAND...SOUTHEASTERN GEAUGA...MEDINA...
ASHLAND...SUMMIT AND WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 712 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Burton to 7 miles northwest of Cuyahoga
Falls to near Crestline. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Youngstown, Mansfield, Warren, Medina, Wooster, Ashland,
Ravenna, Cuyahoga Falls, Kent, Barberton, Green, Hudson, Wadsworth,
Niles, Twinsburg, Tallmadge, Streetsboro, Macedonia, and Shelby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
north central and northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 8246 4083 8272 4098 8273 4099 8245
      4105 8243 4107 8235 4106 8218 4111 8217
      4128 8157 4145 8111 4136 8052 4117 8052
      4099 8115 4099 8142 4091 8142 4091 8164
      4084 8165 4070 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 284DEG 38KT 4142 8117 4123 8163 4086 8275

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sullivan

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