Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
927 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
925 am update...Update to include damaging winds in from the
Moosehead Lake Region down toward MDI for this afternoon. Model
forecast soundings indicating a low CAPE, high shear environment
with a vigorous s/wave dropping into western Maine. 0-6km bulk
shear values progged between 60-70kts with CAPES around 500 J/kg
will likely result in low-topped convection capable of
producing damaging winds. SPC has upgraded this area to a Slight
Risk (2 of 5) on the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Update to add in equipment outage with GOES-19 being unavailable
at this time with no ETR.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms expected across the Central Highlands, Bangor
Region, and Downeast Maine this afternoon/evening, a few could
be severe.

2) Cooler through the weekend, with a chance for showers and
storms again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms expected across the Central
Highlands, Bangor Region, and Downeast Maine this
afternoon/evening, a few could be severe.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The upper-level low that is still spinning over the
Quebec/Labrador region of Canada will push a potent piece of
shortwave energy and surface cold front through the region
today.

The cold front, currently located just NW of the St. Lawrence
River, will push into northern Maine later this morning. Winds
in the upper-levels in the wake of this front will again carry
some smoke into northern Maine this morning into the afternoon
hours as a result of new fire development on the southeast side
of the Hudson Bay. These factors should keep the threat for any
storms this afternoon rather low across these areas, especially
with highs here struggling to get out of the 60s.

Further south, areas from the Central Highlands through Downeast
Maine will be a different story. The cold front is expected to
push through these areas early this afternoon through the early
evening hours. High temperatures in these areas are expected to
rise into the mid 70s to low 80s (warmest near the coast), with
dew points into the mid 50s to low 60s (again highest near the
coast). As a result, model guidance is pretty persistent with
developing around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE over this region,
with that gradient NW to SE from the Highlands to Downeast
Maine. As the cold front drops into this environment,
thunderstorms should develop over the Central Highlands and
propagate towards the coast rather quickly. Looking aloft, there
is a rather impressive low-mid level wind field, with 50-70
knots of 0-6km shear. Forecast soundings are generally in
agreement that low-level lapse rates will be dry adiabatic into
this strong wind field, and mid-level lapse rates aren't too
unimpressive either, around 6 C/km. Storms would be more low-
topped today, but you wouldn't need anything super tall to bring
down some 50-60 mph wind gusts today, as suggested by some of
the latest high-res model guidance. At present, the Storm
Prediction Center has these areas under a marginal risk for
severe weather, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

Storms would be out quickly though, with the consensus of model
guidance pushing storms into the waters by 5-6 PM at the latest.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler through the weekend, with a chance for
showers and storms again this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Temperatures remain on the cooler side, staying in the 70s
through the weekend with nighttime lows in the 50s. The next
chance for showers and storms is this weekend as low pressure
moves in from over the Great Lakes. Thinking that since the
greatest forcing will arrive overnight, thunderstorms are
generally less likely although can't rule out some thunder with
elevated instability Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Today...VFR with a chance of an hour or two of MVFR cigs from
showers and possible storms mainly BGR/GNR/BHB. If this occurs,
it would last only 1-3 hours and be roughly around 17-21z.
Could see some erratic wind gusts with storms, but not
confident on magnitude or direction to include them in the
PROB30 group at this time. Could reasonably see 40-50 knots
though if storms get well established. Otherwise, W winds 10-15
kts with gusts to 25 kts, becoming NW in the afternoon. One
wildcard for today is smoke. There is about a 30 percent chance
of smoke mainly N of BGR being thick enough to reduce visibility
to MVFR levels during the day.

Thursday Night...Mostly VFR, but could drop into the MVFR range
at FVE/CAR/PQI later in the overnight hours. W/NW wind 5-10
kts.

Thursday to Saturday: Mainly VFR with possible MVFR at times
mainly in the north due to either cigs or afternoon
showers/storms. Best chance for afternoon storms is Thursday. W
winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Friday to Friday night...VFR. W winds 10-15 kts with gusts up
to 25 kts, becoming light overnight.

Saturday...VFR early then becoming MVFR in rain showers at
southern terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Saturday night to Sunday...MVFR/VFR in -shra/-tsra. Light and
variable winds.

Sunday night to Monday...Becoming VFR early Sunday night. W
winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming SW Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Thunderstorms are expected to approach the coastal waters later
this afternoon into the evening. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kts are
possible in the strongest cells. Timing would be around 3-6 PM.

Otherwise, winds remain below SCA criteria with seas around 2-4
feet through Saturday.

Winds pick up out of the south late Saturday night and seas rise
to 5-8 feet by early Sunday morning, so SCAs are likely during
this timeframe. This will be short-lived however, as seas and
winds decrease by Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
GOES-19 is currently offline with NESDIS engineers continuing
efforts to recover it. GOES-East products will be unavailable
until it is restored, however there is no estimated restoration
time.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...21/JS/CJL
AVIATION...21/JS/CJL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Caribou ME
143 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WSW Kenduskeag        44.91N 69.01W
07/16/2026                   Penobscot          ME   911 Call Center

            Trees down on wires.

&&

ASB

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