Beach Hazards Statement 9, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
135 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated Aviation Section for 06Z TAF

- Increased rain chances for Monday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very warm to hot high temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s possible Monday-Wednesday. Highest apparent temperatures
Tuesday for all but Downeast. Downeast, especially coastal areas
should see the highest apparent temperatures Wednesday.

2) There is a chance for strong, to possibly severe
thunderstorms area wide on Tuesday, and mainly across coastal
Downeast Maine on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Very warm to hot high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
possible Monday-Wednesday. Highest apparent temperatures Tuesday
for all but Downeast. Downeast, especially coastal areas should
see the highest apparent temperatures Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An upper level ridge over the Great Plains will shift to the
east as the jet stream moves across the axis. This will pipe
very warm temperatures from the western US into the region
Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures are currently expected to
peak Tuesday across all inland areas and Wednesday for coastal
Downeast. Moderate humidity with dew points in the 60s are
expected which should push the apparent temperature higher. As
of this update, apparent temperatures could reach into the mid
to upper 90s. A cooldown is likely through the end of the week
as cooler air moves in behind a cold front expected to exit off
the coast on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There is a chance for strong, to possibly severe
thunderstorms area wide on Tuesday, and mainly across coastal
Downeast Maine on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The Storm Prediction Center continues with the 15% risk for
severe thunderstorms on Tuesday for all but coastal Maine.
Ensemble models are still in very good agreement with the track
and timing of the cold front with the associated low pressure
system in north. Several factors are at play that could create
the environment for severe storms. First, the upper level ridge
over the Great Plains should get pushed southward by the jet
stream, causing the warmer temps over the western US to move
into the area. Daytime temps on Tuesday are expected to reach
into the mid to upper 80s. Next, the surface low pressure system
is expected to the intensify throughout Tuesday, creating a
strong cold front. In addition, winds are expected to increase
at all levels. All of these ingredients should create CAPE
values between 1000-2000 J/kg, strong bulk wind shear between
40-50 kts, and steepening lapse rates. The question will be how
long the instability will last with the frontal passage. Cannot
rule out some possible strong storms lasting into Tuesday night.
While the initial threat is for northern and central areas
Tuesday, a secondary risk may be possible Wednesday Downeast.
Ensemble models do show the bulk wind shear lasting into
Wednesday, there is large inconsistency on if the other
instability factors will last.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With possible exception of a low end chance for some MVFR/IFR
fog early this morning, and again towards the end of the TAF
period at KPQI/KHUL/KBHB, high confidence in VFR. Confidence in
fog is too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time.

Winds become NW-NNW at just under 10KT throughout by mid
morning. All but KBHB should become 10G15-20KT by late morning
though late afternoon/early evening when gusts should abate.
All terminals should see winds become light and variable by
early this evening.

Late tonight-Sunday: Other than a very low chance of MVFR/IFR
in patchy fog at KPQI/KHUL/KBHB late at night/early in the
morning, High confidence in VFR.

Sunday night: VFR. Light and variable winds

Monday-Monday night: VFR south, MVFR in any
showers/thunderstorms at northern terminals Monday
afternoon/evening. SW winds 10-15 kts. LLWS possible Monday
night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: VFR, possible MVFR or lower possible in
any stronger convection. The best chance for a strong
thunderstorm is at northern terminals and the threat could
continue into the overnight hours. WSW winds 10-15 kts, becoming
W Tue night.

Wednesday: VFR, possible MVFR in any isolated
showers/thunderstorms, especially at northern terminals. WNW
winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient over the waters, and no significant
long period swell will limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to
3 ft or less over the waters out to 60nm through Sunday.

Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal and intracoastal
waters Monday night through early Wednesday, then decreasing
below criteria.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...ARL/PM