Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Columbia, SC

971 
WWUS52 KCAE 272019
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
419 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

GAC033-245-SCC003-011-272029-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-260627T2030Z/
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-
419 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BURKE...
SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND...SOUTHWESTERN BARNWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN AIKEN
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3324 8209 3342 8204 3343 8155 3315 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 274DEG 19KT 3331 8171 

$$

PL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A low end severe threat is possible both today and Sunday with
scattered convection. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered afternoon showers and storms each day through
  Monday. Isolated severe storms possible today and Sunday.

- 2. Prolonged hot pattern expected with dangerous heat possible
  this weekend and a signal for a more impactful, intense heat
  event by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered afternoon showers and storms each day
through Monday. Isolated severe storms possible today and
Sunday.

As upper-level ridging begins to build into the region next
week, a couple of weak shortwaves are expected to pass nearby
today and Sunday. Dew points into the low to mid 70s, PWATs
around 2.0", and strong surface heating will promote robust
destabilization each afternoon this weekend, with similar
conditions possible again on Monday. In this moisture rich
environment with MLCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg, only
subtle forcing is needed to initiate showers and thunderstorms.
A few storms may become strong to severe, as steep low-level
lapse rates and modest low-level shear support storm clustering
capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

Another round of convection is possible on Sunday as an upper-
level ridge strengthens over the lower MS Valley. This pattern
will place the area beneath northwesterly flow, allowing
convection to propagate downstream from the ridge axis. Deeper
bounday layer mixing is expected tomorrow afternoon, resulting
in inverted-V soundings and DCAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg,
which would favor strong downdraft and damaging winds. The
extent of Sundays convective threat will depend in part on how
todays convection evolves. The latest CAMs suggest a weakening
MCS may move across neighboring FAs Sunday midday. While the
system is expect to weaken as it approaches, it could still
provide sufficient forcing for a few stronger storms,
particularly if it arrives during peak heating. SPC has just put
much of the north and eastern portions of the CWA in a Marginal
(Level 1) risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Lingering moisture is expected to bring another
afternoon/evening with scattered showers and storms Monday.
However, there is less confidence for any isolated strong to
severe storms.

Key Message 2: Prolonged hot pattern expected with dangerous
heat possible this weekend and a signal for a more impactful,
intense heat event by the end of next week.

The primary story over the next 7-10 days will be a prolonged
stretch of hot and humid conditions. A strengthening upper-level
ridge will become established over the lower MS Valley this
weekend before gradually expanding eastward. By the middle of
next week, most deterministic and ensemble guidance places the
center of the closed ridge over the eastern CONUS, supporting
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s with dew points in the
low to mid 70s. Heat indices are are expected to range between
100-105F today and tomorrow, although scattered afternoon
convection could provide localized relief.

Monday and Tuesday will serve as transition days as a deep
western US trough amplifies the downstream ridge to near the
99.5th percentile of the NAEFS climatology. Temperatures will
remain hot, generally in the mid to upper 90s, but strengthening
surface high pressure over the northeast should advect slightly
drier air midweek. Lower dew points combined with deeper
afternoon mixing and low-level subsidence beneath the ridge
should allow heat indices to back off a bit and be closer to the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees while also suppressing any
convective development through much of the work week.

By late week, and into the holiday weekend, guidance continues
to maintain a strong upper ridge, with 850-mb temperatures
approaching or exceeding 20C. This pattern favors temperatures
increasing again, with highs climbing into the upper 90s and
potentially 100 degrees, especially on Friday and Saturday.
Humidity is also likely to increase resulting in heat indices
that could exceed 105 degrees and potentially reach our Heat
Advisory Criteria. However, afternoon convection could locally
temper max values, but confidence remains too low in coverage to
significantly alter the heat forecast. Be sure to take heat
safety precautions and monitor children, the elderly, and pets.

One last thing to note, as of this morning, NHC put out a 20%
chance for cyclone formation over the next 7 days just off the
SC coast. Confidence remains low, as ensemble guidance continues
to show considerable spread on development and track. However,
any system could alter the expected heat pattern heading into
the Independence Day Holiday, making this feature worth
monitoring over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions likely into this evening with scattered storms
expected to periodically impact sites.

Unsettled weather is forecast to continue today with another
round of showers and thunderstorms developing currently. These
storms are generally expected to remain relatively tame in the
next hour or two but as convection becomes a bit more
widespread, expect a strong storm or two to potentially give a
TAF site a wind gust exceeding 30 knots. Hard to pinpoint when
and where the storms are most likely at this point so have a
generic Prob30 group in through this evening. This may need to
be amended later to account for any widespread storms near a
site. As we get through this evening, things should generally
clear up after 00z-02z as the sun sets. Debris cloudiness is
likely to hang around for several hours before clearing up
overnight. Look for clear skies into tomorrow morning before
cumulus develops again by late morning. Winds through the period
should oscillate between light and variable and southwesterly
between 6 and 12 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection and associated
restrictions remain possible Sunday and into the early week
before slightly drier air limits rain chances later in the week.
Brief morning vsby/cig restrictions also possible into early
next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
209 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

SCZ030-035-041-135-136-271900-
Central Orangeburg SC-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-Bamberg SC-
Northwestern Orangeburg SC-
209 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Barnwell, northwestern Bamberg, central Aiken and west central
Orangeburg Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Citizens Park, or near Aiken Mall, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, Barnwell, Aiken Mall, Williston, Blackville, New Ellenton,
Aiken Municipal Airport, Citizens Park, Aiken State Park, Barnwell
State Park, Springfield, Hilda, Salley, Elko, Windsor, Aiken Gopher
Tortoise Heritage Preserve, Hopeland Gardens, and Boyd Pond Park.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 21
and 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8181 3367 8169 3356 8113 3322 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 284DEG 28KT 3354 8166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
240 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-025-271930-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-Edgefield SC-
240 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
McDuffie, northwestern Columbia, Lincoln, northwestern Edgefield and
McCormick Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 240 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Strom Thurmond, or 15 miles southwest of Abbeville, moving east
at 30 mph.

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
McCormick, Lincolnton, Elijah Clark State Park, Mistletoe State Park,
Mccormick County Airport, Hamilton Branch State Park, Lake Strom
Thurmond, Bobby Brown State Park, Parksville, Plum Branch, Bordeaux,
Broad River Campground, Winfield, Modoc, Knox Scout Reservation,
Double Branches, Curry Hill, Wildwood Park, Chennault, and Modoc Boat
Ramp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8261 3396 8257 3402 8259 3407 8253
      3408 8248 3406 8245 3406 8233 3397 8230
      3402 8225 3397 8218 3398 8205 3395 8205
      3356 8232 3365 8252 3365 8249 3383 8260
      3386 8257 3386 8261 3398 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 284DEG 27KT 3403 8259

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
259 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

GAZ063-065-077-SCZ030-271945-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-McDuffie GA-Aiken SC-
259 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McDuffie, northwestern Burke, southern Richmond and southwestern
Aiken Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wrens, or 15 miles southwest of Fort Gordon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Hephzibah, Alexander, Burke County Airport, McBean,
Gough, Blythe, Keysville, Bath-Edie, Pea Patch Aerodrome, Bennock
Mill, Shell Bluff, Shell Bluff Landing, and Ellwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 8229 3315 8227 3323 8223 3327 8226
      3327 8229 3330 8231 3331 8234 3336 8232
      3327 8177 3295 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 285DEG 24KT 3323 8228

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
315 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

GAZ040-063-064-272000-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-
315 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of McDuffie, Columbia
and south central Lincoln Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wrightsboro, or 10 miles south of Washington, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thomson, Harlem, Appling, Mistletoe State Park, Thomson-McDuffie
County Airport, Wrightsboro, Dearing, Winfield, Sweetwater Park,
McDuffie County Fire Department, Thomson Fire Department, McDuffie
Regional Medical Center, White Oak Campground, Boneville, Columbia
County Jail, Wildwood Park, Ansley Mill, Eubank-Blanchard Community
Center, Leah, and Clay Hill Campground.

This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 167 and
187.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8264 3361 8263 3364 8261 3363 8261
      3364 8259 3363 8258 3365 8258 3364 8256
      3364 8252 3366 8251 3365 8249 3369 8251
      3368 8221 3339 8224 3338 8225 3346 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 276DEG 25KT 3359 8267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
334 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

GAZ040-064-SCZ018-025-272015-
Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-Edgefield SC-
334 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Columbia, southeastern Lincoln, western Edgefield and southeastern
McCormick Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elijah Clark State Park, or 22 miles northwest of Evans, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edgefield, McCormick, Hamilton Branch State Park, Clarks Hill
Recreation Area, Parksville, Plum Branch, Lick Fork Campground, Baker
Creek State Park, Modoc, Mt Vintage, Scott's Landing, Knox Scout
Reservation, Modoc Campground, Double Branches, Cleora, Modoc Boat
Ramp, Colliers, Whitetown, Hawe Creek Campground, and New Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 8240 3391 8237 3390 8191 3363 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 278DEG 17KT 3382 8231

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL