Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Columbia, SC

136 
WWUS52 KCAE 121353
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
953 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

GAC033-SCC003-121402-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260312T1415Z/
Burke GA-Aiken SC-
953 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BURKE AND
SOUTHERN AIKEN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for central South
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3305 8110 3305 8112 3312 8119 3311 8137
      3316 8153 3316 8154 3313 8158 3314 8168
      3328 8166 3332 8160 3332 8098 3309 8098
      3303 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 266DEG 42KT 3330 8131 3307 8134 3282 8153 

$$

SCC009-011-121415-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260312T1415Z/
Barnwell SC-Bamberg SC-
953 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT
FOR BARNWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN BAMBERG COUNTIES...

At 952 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Barnwell State Park to near Appleton to 7 miles
northeast of Sylvania, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Barnwell, Bamberg, Denmark, Rivers Bridge State Park, Ehrhardt,
Hilda, Snelling, Olar, Kline, Govan, Savannah River Site K Complex,
Bamberg County Airport, and Barnwell County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for central South
Carolina.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 8110 3305 8112 3312 8119 3311 8137
      3316 8153 3316 8154 3313 8158 3314 8168
      3328 8166 3332 8160 3332 8098 3309 8098
      3303 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 266DEG 42KT 3330 8131 3307 8134 3282 8153 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
717 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Tornado Watch has been issued until 1p across the entire
forecast area. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. A cold front is forecast to bring a line of strong to
  severe storms this morning, with strong and gusty winds
  expected in advance of the front and just behind it.
- 2. Another strong cold front is forecast to push into and
  through the area Sunday and Monday.
- 3. Well below normal temps expected early next week, with a
  widespread frost possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1: A cold front is forecast to bring a line of
strong to severe storms this morning, with strong and gusty
winds expected in advance of the front and just behind it.

Water vapor imagery tonight reveals a sharp mid-level shortwave
over eastern TX and Louisiana, rapidly propagating
northeastward. A broad area of low pressure exists ahead of this
system, with a large and deep low pressure centered across the
northeastern US and extending along the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians. A secondary surface low is developing in the
immediate vicinity of the aformentioned shortwave, helping to
drive the development of a QLCS. This is a pretty robust QLCS at
this hour, supported by strong synoptic support and 50-100 j/kg
of 3k CAPE. The overall setup favors this to continue marching
eastward towards our forecast area. RAP/HRRR/REFS guidance all
forecasts generally 250-500 j/kg of SBCAPE & 50-100 j/kg of 3km
CAPE. Strong warm advection is fostering surface dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s which should be sufficient to actually yield
CAPE similar to what the guidance is showing. As the shortwave
continues to merge with the deep trough to its north, low-level
flow will continue to strengthen ahead of the line of storms,
with 0-3km shear on the order of 40-50 knots as the line
approaches. This forecast remains on track, with the QLCS
pushing into our forecast area shortly. A Tornado Watch has been
hoisted for the entire area until 1p in anticipation of
potential damaging wind gusts and brief, spin up tornadoes.
Please have weather awareness today!

The expectation is that this line will maintain and approach the
region between 7a and 12p, pushing eastward by the end of that
timeframe. This line has been a pretty frequent producer of
mesovortices as it has propagated across Louisiana and
Mississippi last night and early this morning. With the
aformentioned low-level CAPE profile, in addition to strong,
southwesterly 0-3km shear vectors, expect that the line will be
capable of strong to severe weather. Strong to damaging wind
gusts are the primary threat (and this is outside of 30+ mph non
thunderstorm gusts ahead of the front), with some weak spin up
tornadoes possible given the somewhat favorable setup for
mesovortex production.

Once the line pushes through, the airmass should begin drying as
winds shift out of the west and northwest at the surface. The
gustiness will likely remain but fall back into the 20-30 mph
range instead of 30+ mph near the front. Highs are probably
being hit as this AFD is written give that we are still in the
70s and temps are expected to fall behind the front.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Another strong cold front is forecast to push
into and through the area Sunday and Monday.

After a couple of days with near normal temps and dry
conditions, a broad warm sector is forecast to overspread the
region ahead of a deep, large surface low pushing into the Great
Lakes region. A weak shortwave is forecast to precede this deep
trough, yielding strong moisture return on Sunday. Isentropic
lift is expected to lead to some showers during the day on
Sunday as moisture rapidly increases across the area. This
moisture plume should push to the north of the area thereafter,
with an intense cold front pushing eastward on Monday morning.
Depending on the timing of this front, another round of strong
storms is possible on Monday morning or early afternoon.
Regardless, more rain/storms may approach Monday with strong,
non-thunderstorms wind gusts likely as well with this system.

KEY MESSAGE #3: Well below normal temps expected early next
week, with a widespread frost possible.

Behind the aformentioned front, a strong, arctic high pressure
is forecast to shift into the central Plains and OH Valley. LREF
guidance seems to be in fairly good agreement that this airmass
next week will be cold & dry. The grand ensemble mean shows
surface high pressure in the 85-95th percentile pressures across
the deep south as the surface high settles into the area.
Temperatures are forecast to end up in the low 30s both Monday
and Tuesday night. Given that things are beginning to green up &
bloom, we are growing concerned about a potential widespread
frost early next week. Stay tuned to the forecast if you have
any plants outdoors that may need protection from the cold!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions Likely Develop this Morning....

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
forecast area this morning. Ceilings are expected to fall into
MVFR ahead of the line, with further reductions possible this
morning as the convection moves over the terminals. Strong wind
gusts are possible with any thunderstorms that pass over a
terminal. Gusty winds are expected to develop outside of
thunderstorms today, both ahead of and behind the frontal
boundary. VFR conditions return between 21Z and 23Z as drier air
works into the area behind the cold front with winds gradually
diminishing tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No notable restrictions expected until
early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...7