Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
238 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across the forecast
area and will continue into this evening. Aviation discussion
updated for 18z TAF.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
  week, with isolated flash flooding possible again today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue
through the week, with isolated flash flooding possible again
today.

Today/Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
forecast area in a strongly unstable air mass. PWATs remain
anomalously high, with mesoanalysis above indicating above 2
inch PWATs. Storms have been exhibiting occasionally somewhat
strong downdrafts with winds generally in the 30 to 40 mph
range, well below severe limits, as storm heights remain
relatively low with much of the instability in the low levels
and skinny CAPE profiles in the mid to upper levels. Flash
flooding remain somewhat of a threat, although flow aloft has
remained strong enough to prevent issues to this point and
unlike yesterday, we lack significant low level convergence to
lead to training.

Pattern changes a bit tomorrow with an upper trough
strengthening over the eastern US which will weaken the ridge
offshore, leading to lower moisture with more westerly flow over
the area. While there will still be moderate destabilization
each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday, coverage will likely be
more isolated each day with seasonably hot and humid conditions.
A front will approach the area this weekend leading to the
potential for more widespread showers GEFS probabilities of
sbCAPE greater than 500 J/kg, on the low side for late May.
Cooler temperatures generally expected as well, although there
remains significant spread in blended guidance owing to
uncertainty in the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs this afternoon as convection moves
through. Shower/storm chances diminish this evening, but another
round of morning cig restrictions possible.

Scattered storms are moving through the area early this
afternoon and are expected to continue into this evening. The
main hazards with convection will be reduced visibility from
heavy rainfall and possible gusty winds toward 25-35 kts. There
have also been some lingering MVFR ceilings in spots, but these
are expected to continue to raise through the afternoon. Winds
through the afternoon should remain out of the south around 5-9
kts. Convection should gradually wane this evening before mostly
dry conditions are expected tonight. As has been the trend,
another round of ceilings restrictions will be possible tonight
as bountiful low level moisture remains in place. There is less
confidence across guidance in how low cigs get, but at least
periods of MVFR ceilings seem possible after 06-08z. Will need
to continue to evaluate if IFR cigs become more likely. Any
restrictions should slowly lift through the morning with VFR
conditions returning near the end of the TAF period with 5-8 kt
winds out of the southwest.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Morning fog/stratus possible each
day this week. Scattered, diurnally driven convection expected
through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
159 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

SCZ020-025>028-030-035-037-041-135-136-261845-
Central Orangeburg SC-Lexington SC-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-Calhoun SC-
Newberry SC-Bamberg SC-Richland SC-Saluda SC-
Northwestern Orangeburg SC-Edgefield SC-
159 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Newberry, northwestern Calhoun, east central Edgefield, northeastern
Barnwell, northwestern Bamberg, Lexington, southeastern Saluda,
northern Aiken, northwestern Orangeburg and southwestern Richland
Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Aiken State Park, or 14 miles east of Aiken Mall, moving northeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, Lexington, West Columbia, Cayce, Irmo, Batesburg-Leesville,
Oak Grove, Highway 6 at Lake Murray Dam, Red Bank, Williston,
Blackville, South Congaree, Pine Ridge, Gaston, Ridge Spring, Dreher
Island State Park, Barnwell State Park, SC State Farmer's Market,
Columbia Metro Airport, and Sandy Run.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 14 and 63.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 109 and 134.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 0 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 8131 3365 8185 3416 8154 3408 8118
      3379 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 216DEG 28KT 3350 8146

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
234 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

SCZ020>022-026>028-116-261930-
Fairfield SC-Lexington SC-Southern Lancaster SC-Newberry SC-
Richland SC-Kershaw SC-Saluda SC-
234 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Fairfield,
southwestern Lancaster, eastern Newberry, northwestern Lexington,
northeastern Saluda, northwestern Richland and west central Kershaw
Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 233 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dreher Island State Park, or 10 miles west of Highway 6 at Lake
Murray Dam, moving northeast at 40 mph.

...Boaters on Lake Murray Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Irmo, Newberry, Winnsboro, VC Summer Nuclear Station,
Highway 6 at Lake Murray Dam, Red Bank, St. Andrews, Prosperity,
Jenkinsville, Harbison State Forest, Monticello, Dreher Island State
Park, Lake Wateree State Park, Fairfield County Airport, Newberry
College, Newberry County Airport, Ballentine, Blair, and Blythewood.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 47 and 54.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 71 and 104.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 29 and 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8090 3456 8086 3441 8082 3387 8132
      3411 8173 3448 8156 3445 8155 3446 8154
      3449 8149 3450 8142 3457 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 215DEG 36KT 3408 8139

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
255 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

SCZ016-261930-
Chesterfield SC-
255 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Chesterfield County
through 330 PM EDT...

At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carolina Sandhills Wildlife Refuge, or 11 miles north of Hartsville,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cheraw, Chesterfield, Carolina Sandhills Wildlife Refuge, Cheraw
State Park, Northeastern Technical College, Cheraw Municipal Airport,
Society Hill, Ruby, Patrick, Mount Croghan, McFarlan, Chesterfield
Ruby Middle School, Cheraw Fish Hatchery, Alligator Fire Station,
Middendorf, Bay Springs Fire Station, and Chesterfield Detention
Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 7981 3453 7983 3449 7990 3449 7997
      3450 7998 3449 8003 3449 8005 3442 8019
      3456 8026 3481 8022 3481 7994 3476 7993
      3474 7989 3468 7986 3465 7980 3462 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 236DEG 24KT 3453 8013

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
304 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

SCZ028-029-031-037-038-261945-
Calhoun SC-Clarendon SC-Richland SC-Sumter SC-Lee SC-
304 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Lee,
east central Calhoun, west central Clarendon, Sumter and southeastern
Richland Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Oakland to 7 miles south of Poinsett State
Park. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sumter, South Sumter, Shaw Air Base, Mulberry, Oakland, Sumter County
Airport, Millwood, Poinsett State Park, Pinewood, Paxville, Cane
Savannah, Dalzell, Dinkins Mill, Lakewood, Privateer, Wedgewood, East
Sumter, Cherryvale, Stateburg, and Woodrow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 8035 3375 8025 3368 8063 3402 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 226DEG 14KT 3398 8056 3370 8057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CRL

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