Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
145 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Widespread showers and storms are developing in the CSRA and
will continue to push into the Midlands this afternoon and
evening. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Widespread thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong
  to severe, and localized flash flooding through tonight.

- 2. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Widespread thunderstorms, a few of which may become
strong to severe, and localized flash flooding through tonight.

Latest mesoanalysis indicates significant surface destabilization in
the CSRA with sbCAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg. There remains a sharp
gradient in instability associated with a wedge front in place in
the northernmost portion of the forecast area leading to a notable
temperature gradient as temperatures will generally be in the low
70s in the north/northwestern area to mid to upper 80s southeast. A
shortwave moving through Georgia will continue to shift eastward
which with plentiful instability leading to widespread storms
continuing to increase in coverage through the rest of the
afternoon. With PWATs around 1.8 to 1.9 inches, near the 99th
percentile for this time of year and wet bulb zero heights around
13,000 feet, rainfall will be efficient. With areas north of I-20
receiving substantial rainfall yesterday, generally 2-4 inches based
on CoCoRaHS and radar estimates, any training storms could cause
localized flash flooding. Widespread severe weather is not expected
as CAPE profiles are generally skinnier, with limited mid-level
lapse rates. With increasing low level lapse rates, however, could
see localized strong to potentially severe precip-loaded downdrafts
develop. With forcing provided by the shortwave, convection will
likely linger into tonight, although any severe threat will be
limited.

Key Message 2: Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
upcoming week.

Southwest flow persists over the area with a ridge offshore over the
western Atlantic and deep troughing strengthening over the Gulf
coast, ensuring a strong moisture source from the Gulf of America.
PWATs will remain well above average with NAEFS mean indicating
they will stay above the 90th percentile. There will several
shortwaves pushing through the southwest flow with moderate
destabilization expected each day. This will lead to an
unsettled period with showers and thunderstorms likely
developing each afternoon persisting into the evening. While the
severe threat will be generally low, will continue to need to
monitor a potential localized flash flooding threat, especially
in the northwestern area which is most likely to be the location
where shortwaves will push through the area and which has
already received substantial rain so far this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings this afternoon with showers and
storms possible. Rain chance diminish some tonight, but more
restrictions are expected.

As better mixing is occurring ceilings have generally lifted,
but a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs remains across the TAF sites with
bountiful low level moisture in place. A stalled front sits
across the central Midlands so south of this boundary, light
winds are more southeasterly, and north of this, winds a more
easterly to northeasterly. Showers and storms are starting to
fire across the region as well, though coverage is fairly
scattered. Due to this, chances exist at each terminal through
this evening to see restrictions from convection where gusty
winds could be possible in any stronger storms. Majority of this
activity is expected to begin diminishing between 23z-02z, but
some showers and weaker storms may linger into the overnight
period. A PROB30 group has been added after 00z to account for
this. Guidance remains fairly aggressive in another round of cig
restrictions that could move in as early as 23- 02z. Ceilings
are expected to drop to MVFR during that time, before falling
further to IFR late tonight into early Sunday morning. Patches
of LIFR cigs will be possible as well. Restrictions are expected
to linger through the end of the TAF period, but improvement is
expected late Sunday morning into the afternoon toward MVFR.
Another round of showers/storms will be possible just after this
TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Abundant low level moisture will
bring more rounds of morning restrictions from fog/stratus to
finish the weekend and to start the next work week. Scattered
afternoon showers and storms are possible each day into the
middle of next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
247 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-231915-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-
247 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
McDuffie, northwestern Columbia, Lincoln and McCormick Counties
through 315 PM EDT...

At 246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lincolnton, or 14 miles northeast of Washington, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McCormick, Lincolnton, Elijah Clark State Park, Mccormick County
Airport, Lake Strom Thurmond, Plum Branch, Bordeaux, Knox Scout
Reservation, Double Branches, Curry Hill, Chennault, Modoc Boat Ramp,
Bussey Point Campground, New Hope, Long Cane Creek Picnic Area,
Hickory Knob State Resort Park, Loce, Gill's Point, Hester's Ferry
Campground, and Mount Carmel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8256 3402 8259 3407 8253 3408 8248
      3406 8245 3406 8233 3397 8230 3402 8224
      3401 8224 3368 8222 3370 8233 3365 8243
      3364 8253 3366 8251 3365 8249 3382 8259
      3386 8257 3386 8261 3397 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 229DEG 23KT 3384 8253

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
300 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

SCZ020-231930-
Newberry SC-
300 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Newberry County through 330 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Newberry, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newberry, Prosperity, Newberry College, Newberry County Airport,
Little Mountain, Newberry County Detention Center, US-176 and SC-
34 Crossroads, and Mid-Carolina High School.

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 72 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 8165 3430 8168 3440 8145 3419 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 258DEG 9KT 3425 8160

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

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