Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
128 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Aviation discussion
updated for 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Thunderstorms expected each day through the weekend with
  seasonable temperatures. Drier conditions and above normal
  temperatures are expected to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms expected each day through the
weekend with seasonable temperatures. Drier conditions and above normal
 temperatures are expected to start next week.

The forecast remains on track compared to what we have been
advertising the past few days. We did have some surprise
convection this morning which has diminished across the area.
Cumulus has replaced stratus from earlier, and within a warming
and very moist atmosphere, expecting scattered to numerous
showers and storms to develop this afternoon. Troughing to our
west should help be a weak forcing mechanism, and >2" PWs should
yield heavy, efficient rainfall in the strongest storms. Not
really expecting severe weather today as DCAPE and TEI values
are unimpressive in a very moisture rich atmosphere. Will be
relying primarily on moisture loading for any severe storms. The
persistent trough is forecast to hang around through about
Saturday, with a deep plume of moisture atop the area on Friday
and Saturday still. As a result, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected both days across the forecast
area. High PWs can and should result in continued heavy
rainfall across the area, which has result in parts of the area
being included in a Marginal and Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall through Saturday. Flash flooding likely won't be a
widespread issue but storms should be efficient enough at
producing rainfall to make any training or slow movers capable
of flash flooding.

As we get later into the weekend and early next week, confidence
continues to increase in anomalous upper level ridging building
overhead and persisting. This 500 hPa ridge should yield above
normal temperatures beginning Monday and persisting through the
end of the forecast period. It is unlikely that we will see
widespread precipitation to help keep temps down during this
period as upper level subsidence beneath the ridge center should
hold convection mostly at bay. Given this, the potential for
anomalous heat is rising. Highs in the mid to upper 90s appear
possible, as signaled by a pretty robust EFI signal at this
timeframe. Given consistent dewpoints in the 70s, dangerous heat
index values are again forecast to return to the forecast area
during this period, especially Tuesday through Thursday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase this
afternoon, becoming numerous in coverage into this evening
across the area. TAFs continue to indicate vicinity
thunderstorms through 02Z, with either a PROB30 or TEMPO group
for thunderstorms with some flight restrictions through the
afternoon/early evening. Isolated showers are possible once
again overnight, but confidence is not great enough to include
mention in the TAFs at this time. Another round of ceiling
restrictions and possibly some visibility restrictions will be
possible again later tonight due to the moist low level airmass
and nearby stalled front, so have a period of IFR conditions at
all terminals from about 09-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions possible from showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon through this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...JAQ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
201 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

SCZ027-028-031-037-271830-
Lexington SC-Calhoun SC-Richland SC-Sumter SC-
201 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Calhoun,
southeastern Lexington, west central Sumter and southeastern Richland
Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 201 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Congaree National Park, or 8 miles southwest of McEntire Air Base,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
McEntire Air Base, Eastover, Congaree National Park, Gadsden,
Hopkins, and Fort Motte.

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 132 and 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3370 8092 3387 8099 3401 8068 3375 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 250DEG 15KT 3381 8088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JAQ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
210 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-025-271845-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-Edgefield SC-
210 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
McDuffie, northern Columbia, Lincoln, west central Edgefield and
southeastern McCormick Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lincolnton, or 15 miles east of Washington, moving east at 20 mph.

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McCormick, Lincolnton, Appling, Clarks Hill Recreation Area, J. Strom
Thurmond Dam, Elijah Clark State Park, Riverwood, Mistletoe State
Park, Hamilton Branch State Park, Parksville, Plum Branch, Winfield,
Modoc, Scott's Landing, Knox Scout Reservation, Double Branches,
Curry Hill, Wildwood Park, Columbia County Jail, and Modoc Boat Ramp.

This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 174 and
177.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 8257 3392 8219 3380 8214 3376 8217
      3374 8216 3372 8218 3369 8217 3363 8210
      3360 8211 3359 8210 3349 8247 3364 8254
      3364 8252 3366 8251 3365 8249 3383 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 265DEG 18KT 3376 8247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG