Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
205 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Diurnal shower and thunderstorm coverage appears isolated over
the next few days. However there is a chance for more organized
convection and severe weather to enter the northern FA late
today and Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Storms with strong downburst winds possible through Thu

- 2. Above normal temperatures likely, Heat Advisory possible,
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
- 1. Storms with strong downburst winds possible through Thu

Upper level ridging to our west will allow several disturbances
to dig into the Carolinas today through early Thursday. In
addition to typical diurnally driven storms, there is some
potential for organized convection from decaying MCSs upstream.
Mid-level dry air will allow for DCAPE values in excess of 1000
J/kg today and Wednesday so any diurnally driven pulse-
convection will pose a threat of isolated downburst winds.

In terms of a more widespread wind threat, MCSs are expected to
develop in the Midwest and dig into the Mid Atlantic States by
the late evening time frame. In this setup, we typically see a
decaying MCSs digging into the northern FA well after peak
heating. However, there are times when convection persists
longer than models anticipate leading to a cold pool driven line
of storms causing scattered power outages and wind damage.
These lines of storms will be possible this evening and again
Wednesday morning or mid-day.

- 2. Above normal temperatures likely, Heat Advisory possible,
  through early next week.

Northwest, downslope flow and rising heights favor above normal
temperatures through much of the 7 day forecast period. If
convection does not hamper heating, we will likely have highs in
the mid 90s to upper 90s. The NBM may be too warm given its
verification through the spring/summer season however highs of
around 100 degrees can't be ruled out late this week and early
next week as ridging builds overhead. Heat Index values should
range from 100 to 105 through Friday with values in the 105 to
110 range possible Thursday and Friday. That said with
convection possible both days confidence in reaching Heat
Advisory is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively high confidence in VFR conditions through much of the
TAF forecast period.

Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop in portions of
GA at the time of this update. Confidence has increased that
this activity could affect AGS, DNL, and/or AIK this afternoon.
Expect gusty and erratic winds and typical restrictions should a
storm affect these terminals. The probability of CAE, CUB, and
OGB being affected by showers and storms this afternoon and
evening remains low at this time. There is some guidance
suggesting additional activity overnight, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAFs at this time. Outside of shower and
thunderstorm activity, generally west winds 5 to 10 kts can be
expected this afternoon and after about 15z tomorrow, with
lighter winds overnight. Additionally, VFR conditions are also
anticipated through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A hot and drier weather pattern
develops through the week. Convective coverage will likely be
low and restrictions likely minimal as highs push into the upper
90s.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
341 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-035-112030-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-
341 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Burke,
southeastern Richmond, southwestern Barnwell and southwestern Aiken
Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jackson, or 12 miles southeast of Augusta, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Barnwell, Savannah River Site, Plant Vogtle, Jackson, McBean,
Snelling, Audubon's Silver Bluff Sanctuary, Savannah River Site Badge
Office, Savannah River Site H Canyon, Bennock Mill, Savannah River
Site K Complex, Shell Bluff Landing, and Barnwell County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 8201 3339 8186 3327 8133 3313 8144
      3316 8154 3310 8162 3307 8159 3306 8156
      3304 8156 3305 8154 3302 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 290DEG 21KT 3332 8186

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-035-112145-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Burke,
southeastern Richmond, southwestern Barnwell and southwestern Aiken
Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Savannah River Site, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Savannah River Site, Plant Vogtle, Jackson, Snelling, Shell Bluff
Landing, Audubon's Silver Bluff Sanctuary, Savannah River Site Badge
Office, Savannah River Site H Canyon, Bennock Mill, and Savannah
River Site K Complex.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3324 8199 3340 8181 3329 8140 3306 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 300DEG 10KT 3324 8177

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
702 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

SCZ115-116-112345-
Northern Lancaster SC-Southern Lancaster SC-
702 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Lancaster County through 745 PM EDT...

At 701 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Central Charlotte, or near Uptown Charlotte, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Indian Land, Waxhaw, Andrew Jackson State Park, Van Wyck, Carolina
Commons Shopping Center, and Community of Almond Glen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8078 3483 8080 3483 8089 3484 8087
      3486 8088 3490 8088 3493 8086 3496 8087
      3501 8091 3503 8090 3505 8091 3507 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 340DEG 22KT 3519 8093

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>