Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
644 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Isolated diurnal storms possible each day this week, with
  diminishing chances midweek. A strong storm cannot be ruled
  out.

- 2. Increasing heat and humidity is expected this week,
  especially by the mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
- 1. Isolated diurnal storms possible each day this week, with
  diminishing chances midweek. A strong storm cannot be ruled
  out.

There has been minimal change with this forecast package in
terms of rain/storm chances through the week. Maintenance of
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s amidst robust heating each day
is expected to yield seasonable to strong instability during the
afternoon through the weekend. A weak embedded perturbation may
aid in bringing isolated to scattered coverage this afternoon
before coverage is a bit more spotty to isolated during the mid
to late week as forcing from multiple shortwaves remains just
north of FA. Global models generally indicate rising mid level
heights late this week into the weekend as ridging strengthens
over the central CONUS with a shortwave ridge moving into the
Great Lakes, but there continues to be the potential for weak
troughing moving in this weekend. There is also the possibility
for a diffuse frontal boundary to near FA by this weekend as
well. Considerable uncertainty remains in this however, as seen
in the generous spread across the LREF's four clusters. Overall,
the potential for increased rain chances exists by this
weekend, but confidence in realizing this is low at the moment.
As is typical with our diurnal pulse convection, a strong storm
or two cannot be ruled out with the risk of strong downburst
winds, but widespread severe weather remains unlikely.

- 2. Increasing heat and humidity is expected this week,
  especially by the mid to late week.

Strengthening ridging just to our west through the week should
aid in bringing a warming trend with 500mb heights peaking at
the NAEFS 97.5th percentile late in the week. Temperatures
likely reach the mid to upper 90s each day Tuesday through at
least Friday. Persistent southwesterly flow on the periphery of
a Bermuda high should also aid in keeping PWAT's near 2" and
surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. With the expected lower
coverage of diurnal convection each day, confidence is high in
heat indices above 100F during this period. The potential for
heat indices above 105F and possibly nearing Advisory criteria
(108F) increase during the mid to late week with LREF
probabilities for indices above 105F between 30- 50% on Thursday
before increasing to 50-65% Friday and Saturday. This signal is
also supported in the latest EC EFI where values of 0.80-0.90
are seen Friday and Saturday. It is worth noting the uncertainty
in the synoptic pattern and thus rain chances this weekend
brings large NBM IQR spreads Saturday and Sunday (8-10 degrees).
Either way, hot/humid conditions are likely most of this week
with increasing confidence in heat indices exceeding 105F by the
mid to late week. With the persistence of heat this week, be
sure to take heat safety precautions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with some spotty
stratus-fog possible around sunrise this morning.

Debris clouds have generally limited fog and stratus formation this
morning, but there are a few spots it has developed where more
clearing is present. Lingering stratus should improve after 13z. SFC
winds start the day light and increase out of the S/SW at 6-8 kts
after 15z. Isolated afternoon convection possible again this
afternoon, with model guidance favoring a late afternoon into the
evening time frame. For now, covering this potential with VCSH which
can be refined with later forecasts. Any -SHRA/-TSRA diminish this
evening with mainly high and mid level clouds tonight as winds
decrease to light and variable again.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A seasonal pattern of early
morning restrictions and diurnal thunderstorms is likely through
much of the extended.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1216 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

SCZ028-037-101645-
Calhoun SC-Richland SC-
1216 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Calhoun and
southeastern Richland Counties through 1245 PM EDT...

At 1215 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Congaree National Park, or 9 miles southwest of McEntire Air Base,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
St. Matthews, Congaree National Park, Gadsden, and Fort Motte.

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 131 and 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 8061 3374 8063 3372 8062 3358 8071
      3373 8097 3376 8093 3378 8096 3390 8090
      3383 8062 3382 8062 3381 8060 3379 8060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 295DEG 14KT 3379 8087

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CJR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1250 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ018-025-030-101730-
Richmond GA-McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-Aiken SC-McCormick SC-
Edgefield SC-
1250 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of McDuffie, Columbia,
southern Lincoln, central Richmond, southwestern Edgefield, west
central Aiken and southern McCormick Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 1249 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Belvedere to near Appling to near
Wrightsboro. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, North Augusta, Grovetown, Evans, Thomson, Fort Gordon,
Augusta, Clearwater, Martinez, Aiken Mall, Belvedere, Harlem, New
Ellenton, Glendale, South Augusta, Summerville, Wrightsboro, Augusta
Mall, Daniel Field, and Village Plaza Shopping Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 166 and 201.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 0 and 12.
 Interstate 520 in Georgia between mile markers 1 and 15.
 Interstate 520 in South Carolina between mile markers 16 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8263 3364 8261 3363 8258 3365 8258
      3364 8256 3365 8252 3364 8248 3365 8248
      3364 8235 3365 8190 3342 8147 3334 8251
      3336 8255 3341 8255 3346 8259 3360 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 284DEG 12KT 3359 8197 3352 8228 3356 8264

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
102 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

SCZ027-028-031-037-038-135-101745-
Lexington SC-Calhoun SC-Clarendon SC-Richland SC-Sumter SC-
Northwestern Orangeburg SC-
102 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Calhoun, west
central Clarendon, southeastern Lexington, southwestern Sumter,
northwestern Orangeburg and southeastern Richland Counties through
145 PM EDT...

At 101 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Poinsett State Park to 7 miles southwest
of Sandy Run. Movement was east at 20 mph.

...Boaters on Lake Marion Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
St. Matthews, Poinsett State Park, Swansea, Pinewood, Paxville, Fort
Motte, Brogdon, Privateer, and Lakewood.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 127 and 138.
 Interstate 95 between mile markers 126 and 128.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 8005 3362 8077 3373 8120 3387 8063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 276DEG 17KT 3380 8058 3372 8104

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BC