Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Warnings in 2026
Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm warning at Jan 14, 2026, 12:49 PM EST for 13 counties in New York. It was in force for 47 hr. 60 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 14, 2026, 12:49 PM EST (17:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 16, 2026, 11:53 AM EST
- In force
- 47 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 11:59 PM EST | SNOW 3 | 1 Wnw Niagara Falls, NY | Cocorahs station NY-NG-11 Niagara Falls 0.7 WNW. |
| Jan 15, 12:30 AM EST | SNOW 9.9 | 4 Ne Angola, NY | Derby. |
| Jan 15, 12:50 AM EST | SNOW 4.5 | Buffalo Airport, NY | Storm total snowfall so far. |
| Jan 15, 12:50 AM EST | SNOW 4.5 | Rochester Airport, NY | Storm total snowfall so far. |
| Jan 15, 5:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.7 | 1 Wnw Fredonia, NY | Cocorahs station NY-CQ-22 Fredonia 0.8 WNW. |
| Jan 15, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 1.6 | 1 S Oswego, NY | Cocorahs station NY-OS-46 Oswego 1.3 S. |
| Jan 15, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 2 | 4 N Brantingham, NY | CO-OP Observer station GFDN6 Chases Lake. |
| Jan 15, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.6 | 5 W Constableville, NY | CO-OP Observer station HGHN6 Highmarket 2W. |
| Jan 15, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 3 | 1 Nw Constableville, NY | Cocorahs station NY-LW-3 Constableville 1.2 NW. |
| Jan 15, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.7 | 5 Nw Varysburg, NY | CO-OP Observer station ATAN6 Attica 7SW. |
| Jan 15, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 4.2 | 1 Sse Dewittville, NY | Cocorahs station NY-CQ-42 Dewittville 1.0 SSE. |
| Jan 15, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 4.6 | 1 W Newfane, NY | CO-OP Observer station NWFN6 Newfane 1W. |
| Jan 15, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 4.8 | 3 Ne Holland, NY | |
| Jan 15, 6:30 AM EST | SNOW 3.2 | Kenmore, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-59 Kenmore 0.3 ESE. |
| Jan 15, 6:30 AM EST | SNOW 5.3 | Clarence Center, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-151 Clarence Center 0.2 ESE. |
| Jan 15, 6:30 AM EST | SNOW 5.4 | Sardinia, NY | |
| Jan 15, 6:35 AM EST | SNOW 7.1 | 4 Ne Angola, NY | Derby. |
| Jan 15, 6:50 AM EST | SNOW 1.7 | Rochester Airport, NY | 24 hour snowfall so far. |
| Jan 15, 6:50 AM EST | SNOW 3.9 | Buffalo Airport, NY | 24 hour snowfall total. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 1 | 2 Nne Richland, NY | Cocorahs station NY-OS-1 Lacona 3.6 SSE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 1.5 | 5 Ssw Salamanca, NY | CO-OP Observer station RHAN6 Allegany State Park. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 1.5 | 6 N Hinsdale, NY | Cocorahs station NY-CT-25 Ischua 0.4 SSE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 1.8 | 3 Wnw Alexander, NY | Cocorahs station NY-GN-28 Alexander 2.7 WNW. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 1.9 | 1 Ne Penfield, NY | Cocorahs station NY-MR-90 Penfield 1.8 ENE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 2 | 2 Sw Mexico, NY | CO-OP Observer station MXON6 Mexico 2SW. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.2 | 1 Ssw Watertown, NY | Cocorahs station NY-JF-47 Watertown 0.9 SSW. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.2 | 2 Ese Falconer, NY | CO-OP Observer station JSTN6 Jamestown 4ENE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.5 | 1 E East Aurora, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-66 East Aurora 1.0 ESE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.7 | 2 Ne Stafford, NY | Cocorahs station NY-GN-6 Stafford 1.8 NE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.7 | 2 Wnw Hilton, NY | |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.8 | 1 Sse Brockport, NY | Cocorahs station NY-MR-108 Brockport 1.4 SSE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3 | 1 Ne Lowville, NY | CO-OP Observer station LOWN6 Lowville. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3 | 1 S Dunkirk, NY | CO-OP Observer station DKKN6 Dunkirk 1S. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3 | 1 Wsw Little Valley, NY | CO-OP Observer station LTVN6 Little Valley. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.8 | 2 E Niagara Falls, NY | CO-OP Observer station IAGN6 Niagara Falls. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 4 | 2 Wnw Cattaraugus, NY | CO-OP Observer station CTGN6 Cattaraugus 3W. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 4.6 | Hamburg, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-39 Hamburg 0.4 WSW. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5 | 1 Wsw Snyder, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-203 Snyder 0.6 SW. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5 | Mayville, NY | Cocorahs station NY-CQ-41 Mayville 0.2 ESE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5 | Perrysburg, NY | |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.2 | 2 Se Elma Center, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-261 Elma Center 1.8 SE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.3 | Cassadaga, NY | CO-OP Observer station CSGN6 Cassadaga. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.6 | 1 Ne Lockport, NY | Cocorahs station NY-NG-12 Lockport 0.8 NE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.8 | 3 W Warsaw, NY | CO-OP Observer station WSWN6 Warsaw 4W. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 6 | 2 Sse North Tonawanda, NY | CO-OP Observer station NTON6 North Tonawanda. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 6 | 2 W Cambria Center, NY | Cocorahs station NY-NG-47 Sanborn 3.0 NNE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 6.1 | 1 Se Cambria Center, NY | CO-OP Observer station SBNN6 Sanborn 4NE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 6.1 | 2 Ese Lockport, NY | CO-OP Observer station LPTN6 Lockport. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 6.1 | 2 Nw South Wales, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-158 East Aurora 2.7 SSE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 6.7 | 5 Nw Gainesville, NY | CO-OP Observer station WRSN6 Warsaw 6SW. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 8 | 1 Se Glenwood, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-194 Glenwood 1.0 SE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 8.5 | 1 Wnw Colden, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-166 Boston 2.5 NE. |
| Jan 15, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 10.1 | 1 Sse Eden, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-150 Eden 1.4 SSE. |
| Jan 15, 7:25 AM EST | SNOW 2 | 2 E Stafford, NY | |
| Jan 15, 7:26 AM EST | SNOW 2.4 | 1 Sw Franklinville, NY | CO-OP Observer station FRKN6 Franklinville. |
| Jan 15, 7:30 AM EST | SNOW 1 | 1 Sw Olean, NY | CO-OP Observer station OLNN6 Olean. |
| Jan 15, 7:30 AM EST | SNOW 2 | 1 W East Randolph, NY | Cocorahs station NY-CT-2 Randolph 1.1 ENE. |
| Jan 15, 7:30 AM EST | SNOW 4.5 | 1 Se North Tonawanda, NY | |
| Jan 15, 7:55 AM EST | SNOW 2.4 | 2 Ne Honeoye Falls, NY | Cocorahs station NY-MR-55 Honeoye Falls 1.7 NE. |
| Jan 15, 7:57 AM EST | SNOW 3.5 | 2 N Hamburg, NY | Cocorahs station NY-ER-189 Hamburg 2.0 N. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 617 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 65 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
113 WWUS41 KBUF 141749 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 NYZ006-150600- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260116T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.260114T1749Z-260116T1800Z/ Oswego- Including the cities of Oswego 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. Snow will begin on the Tug Hill Plateau this evening, while lower elevations will be rain. Snow will become widespread across the region tonight, then transition to localized lake effect snow Thursday through Friday morning. The greatest accumulations will be on the Tug Hill Plateau and the western half of the county. Wind chills below zero are expected Thursday through Friday morning. * WHERE...Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-150600- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260116T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.260114T1749Z-260116T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total Snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches. Snow will begin on the Tug Hill Plateau this evening. The greatest accumulations will be on the Tug Hill Plateau. Wind chills below zero are expected Thursday through Friday morning. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-150600- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260116T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.260114T1749Z-260116T0600Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. The highest amounts will be across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. Wind chills below zero are expected Thursday and Thursday night. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ001-002-010-011-150600- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.260114T2100Z-260115T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.260114T2100Z-260116T0000Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and Batavia 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches. The greatest accumulation will be across northern Niagara and Orleans counties. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ003-150600- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.260115T0000Z-260115T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.260115T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Monroe- Including the cities of Rochester 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches. The greatest accumulation will be across far northern Monroe county. * WHERE...Monroe County. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-150600- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.260115T0000Z-260116T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.260115T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches. The greatest accumulation will be across northern Wayne and Cayuga counties. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ021-150600- /O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.260115T0000Z-260115T1800Z/ Allegany- Including the cities of Wellsville 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Allegany County. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ013-014-150600- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.260115T0000Z-260115T1800Z/ Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua 1249 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations 3 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Livingston and Ontario Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ HSK
7 follow-up statements
001 WWUS41 KBUF 150608 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 108 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 NYZ001-002-010-011-151815- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0000Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and Batavia 108 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 9 inches. The greatest accumulation will be across northern Niagara and Orleans counties. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the today's morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills around zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ003>005-151815- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven 108 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. The greatest accumulation will be across northern parts of Monroe, Wayne and Cayuga counties. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the today's morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills around zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-151815- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Oswego- Including the cities of Oswego 108 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. Widespread snow this morning will transition to localized lake effect snow this afternoon through Friday morning. The greatest accumulations will be on the Tug Hill Plateau and the western half of the county. Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. * WHERE...Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact today's morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-151815- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 108 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total Snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches. The greatest accumulations will be on the Tug Hill Plateau. Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact today's morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-151815- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0600Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 108 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. The highest amounts will be across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact today's morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ013-014-021-151800- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260115T1800Z/ Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- Including the cities of Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville 108 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the commute this morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ TMA
329 WWUS41 KBUF 150943 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 443 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 NYZ001-002-010-011-151900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0000Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and Batavia 443 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 8 inches. The greatest accumulation will be across northern Niagara and Orleans counties. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the today's morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills around zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ003>005-151900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven 443 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. The greatest accumulation will be across northern parts of Monroe, Wayne and Cayuga counties. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the today's morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills around zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-151900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Oswego- Including the cities of Oswego 443 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. Widespread snow this morning will transition to localized lake effect snow this afternoon through Friday morning. The greatest accumulations will be on the Tug Hill Plateau and the western half of the county. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact today's morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-151900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 443 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total Snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches. The greatest accumulations will be on the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact today's morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-151900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0600Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 443 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. The highest amounts will be across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact today's morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ013-014-021-151800- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260115T1800Z/ Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- Including the cities of Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville 443 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the commute this morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ TMA
992 WWUS41 KBUF 151751 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1251 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 NYZ013-014-021-151900- /O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260115T1800Z/ Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- Including the cities of Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville 1251 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... The threat for widespread accumulating snow has exited the area, therefore the Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire. However, light snow showers are expected this afternoon. $$ NYZ001-002-010-011-160000- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0000Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and Batavia 1251 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills around zero are expected through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ003>005-160900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven 1251 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 8 inches. The greatest accumulation will be across northern parts of Monroe, Wayne and Cayuga counties. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills around zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-160900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Oswego- Including the cities of Oswego 1251 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations 4 to 7 inches. Snow showers will transition to localized lake effect snow this afternoon through Friday morning. The greatest accumulations will be on the Tug Hill Plateau and the western half of the county. * WHERE...Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-160900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 1251 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total Snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches. The greatest accumulations will be on the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-160600- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0600Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 1251 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches. The highest amounts will be across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected today through Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ HSK
147 WWUS41 KBUF 152356 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 656 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 NYZ001-002-010-011-160300- /O.EXT.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and Batavia 656 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Moderate snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ003>005-160300- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven 656 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent bands well east of Rochester, 1 to 2 inches elsewhere. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga Counties. The greatest additional accumulations will be across eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-160300- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Oswego- Including the cities of Oswego 656 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-160300- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 656 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Moderate snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-160300- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0600Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 656 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock
799 WWUS41 KBUF 160258 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 958 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 NYZ003-160400- /O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Monroe- Including the cities of Rochester 958 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... Snow has tapered off, with any additional accumulations an inch or less overnight. $$ NYZ007-008-160400- /O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 958 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... Light snow will continue overnight, but any additional accumulations will be an inch or less. $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-160400- /O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0600Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 958 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... Light snow will continue overnight, but any additional accumulations will be an inch or less. $$ NYZ001-002-010-011-160400- /O.EXP.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T0300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and Batavia 958 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... Areas of light snow will continue overnight, but any additional accumulations will be an inch or less. $$ NYZ004-005-161000- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 958 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Locally heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches in persistent bands. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties. The greatest accumulations will be across eastern Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with reduced visibility in narrow bands. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-161000- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Oswego- Including the cities of Oswego 958 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent bands. * WHERE...Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock
861 WWUS41 KBUF 160825 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 325 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 NYZ004-005-161800- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 325 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Locally heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches in persistent bands. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties. The greatest accumulations will be across eastern Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with reduced visibility in narrow bands. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills around zero are expected today this morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-161800- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Oswego- Including the cities of Oswego 325 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent bands. * WHERE...Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills below zero are expected this morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ TMA
705 WWUS41 KBUF 161653 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1153 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 NYZ004>006-161800- /O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260116T1800Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 1153 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... Snow has diminished and significant accumulations are no longer expected, therefore the Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled. $$ HSK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Jan 14, 3:27 AM EST, 9 hours 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Rain transitions over to snow this evening and tonight, with light to moderate accumulations expected through Thursday morning. 2) Morning widespread snow to start the day on Thursday will transition to lake effect snow through the day. 3) Well below normal temperatures expected through Thursday night 4) Active and and cold weather returns starting late Friday and this weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 14, 3:27 AM EST, 9 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
327 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all remaining
counties of western and north-central New York, for the
potential of 3-6" of snow. Rain will transition over to snow
this evening and tonight with light to moderate accumulations
expected through Thursday morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain transitions over to snow this evening and tonight, with
light to moderate accumulations expected through Thursday
morning.
2) Morning widespread snow to start the day on Thursday will
transition to lake effect snow through the day.
3) Well below normal temperatures expected through Thursday
night
4) Active and and cold weather returns starting late Friday and
this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)...Rain transitions over to snow this evening and
tonight, with light to moderate accumulations expected through
Thursday morning.
Relatively mild conditions with a very brief period of quiet weather
will exist this morning ahead of the next impactful system.
A complex scenario will unfold this afternoon-evening/tonight
as a potent shortwave drops southeast across the upper Great
Lakes, and then begins to interact with another shortwave diving
through the base of the broader trough. As these two feature
begin to phase...a surface low pressure will form and begin to
deepen across central Pennsylvania along a tightening
(frontogenesis) thermal gradient. That said...the 'position' of
the thermal gradient and subsequent 'track' of the surface low
will determine overall synoptic snowfall amounts across our
region. As it stands...surface temperatures across much of
western New York will be suspect initially which will 'likely'
support p-type in the liquid form. That said...as the lower
column of the atmosphere dynamically cools we should gradually
see a transition over to snow sometime this evening. An even
tricker forecast will unfold east of Rochester into the North
Country tonight. The surface low is advertised to pass just to
the east of the forecast area across central New York. With H850
T's only -3C to -5C...this would suggest p-type will likely be
in the liquid form or a mix of rain-snow at lower elevations.
We might 'not' see the transition over to snow for lower
elevation east of Rochester until the later portion of tonight.
So don't be surprised if it's just plain rain for all of this
evening for lower elevations. As the low begins to pass, SLR
will ramp up to 15:1 to 18:1 and the snow will become less
dense. We even could see a decent band of snow work from west to
east with the Arctic front overnight. It is at this point we
will see a transition to all snow as the low passes and pulls in
a much colder airmass. Given latest guidance...have enough
confidence (moderate) to issue Winter Weather Advisories for all
remaining counties despite some lingering uncertainties. Look
for general snowfall amounts of 3-6" but keep in mind the higher
end of this amount will all depend on the transition from rain
to snow.
KEY MESSAGE 2)... Morning widespread snow to start the day on
Thursday will transition to lake effect snow through the day.
Widespread snow associated with a passing sfc low will push
northeast behind the departing sfc low through the morning on
Thursday. In the systems wake, with a trough/midlevel low over the
region and temperatures aloft cooling to sub -15C, lake enhanced and
then lake effect snow will develop east to southeast of the lakes.
Lake effect snow will linger the longest southeast of Lake Ontario
into Friday morning. Some uncertainty still remains with the lake
bands off of Lake Erie and the upstream connections with the
northwest flow. Guidance keeps some of the higher snowfall amounts
south of Chautauqua County into NW PA, but any shift in current
thinking could push higher snow amounts farther north where there is
a high end Winter Weather Advisory in place. Snowfall off of Lake
Erie for Thursday is expected to be in the 2 to 5 inch range, with
some higher amounts over the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge.
Snowfall off of Lake Ontario is expected to be in the 4 to 7 inch
range for Thursday into Thursday night with the greatest amounts
expected from Wayne to Oswego County. Outside of the lake effect
snowfall, a general 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible for most
areas with the widespread snowfall that will linger into the morning
on Thursday.
Winter Weather Advisories are in place for ALL of western and north
central New York through at least Thursday morning, with some
advisories lasting into Friday morning for lake effect snow. Details
on these can be seen below in the WWA section.
KEY MESSAGE 3)...Well below normal temperatures expected
through Thursday night
Behind an arctic front that pushes through the region late Wednesday
and early Thursday, temperatures will drop to well below normal
through Thursday night. Temperatures in the teens to near 20 are
expected for Thursday afternoon and single digits to low teens are
expected for overnight lows. Wind chill values in the single digits
to as low as around -10F will be possible into Friday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 4)...Active and cold weather returns starting late
Friday and this weekend.
An active period of snowy and colder weather will return starting
late Friday and this weekend. Large scale troughing along with
passing shortwave troughs and sfc lows is expected to continue into
the middle of next week, resulting in periods of snow along with
cold temperatures. Periods of widespread synoptic snow from passing
systems will be followed by lake effect snow. Most of the widespread
snow should be generally limited to half a day at a time as most of
the sfc lows look to be more of the quick moving clipper variety.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will be found at area terminals early this
morning. A developing low pressure system will bring deteriorating
flight conditions today, with cigs lowering to MVFR then widespread
IFR this evening.
Low pressure will pass by the region with rain transitioning to snow
tonight. Expect widespread IFR condition across area terminals.
Outlook...
Thursday...IFR with widespread light snow in the morning, then
MVFR/IFR with localized lake effect east and southeast of the lakes.
Friday through Sunday...MVFR/IFR with snow showers at times.
&&
.MARINE...
A low pressure system will pass by the Lower Lakes tonight pulling a
strong cold front through the region. Winds may diminish a bit
today, before increasing again this evening-tonight out of the west-
northwest. Small Craft conditions will remain on the lakes through
the rest of the week and even well through the weekend.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Thursday for NYZ001-002-010-011-021.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Thursday for NYZ003-013-014.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Friday for NYZ004-005.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Friday for NYZ006>008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
Friday for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-
041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for
LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LOZ044-045.
&&
DISCUSSION...AR/SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...ARHazardous weather outlook, Jan 14, 1:16 AM EST, 11 hours 33 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 NYZ012-019-020-085-150630- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-150630- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004-005-150630- Wayne-Northern Cayuga- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-150630- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042>045-062>065-150630- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-150630- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-150630- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001-002-010-011-021-150630- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Allegany- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003-013-014-150630- Monroe-Livingston-Ontario- 116 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Reynolds
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2026Every winter storm warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.