Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Buffalo, NY

035 
FZUS71 KBUF 162010
MWSBUF

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
410 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

LOZ043-044-063-064-162045-
/O.CON.KBUF.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260516T2045Z/
410 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

For the following areas...
  Lake Ontario from Irondequoit Bay to Oswego...

At 410 PM EDT, gusty showers were located along a line extending 
from 21 nm west of Stony Point to 6 nm southwest of Fair Haven, 
moving northeast at 40 knots.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and 
         suddenly higher waves.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Sodus Bay, Irondequoit Bay, Ontario On The Lake, and Fair
Haven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are
expected.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 7757 4363 7759 4363 7680 4379 7667
      4344 7647 4338 7660 4328 7668 4329 7676
      4323 7700 4325 7711 4325 7729
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 234DEG 39KT 4378 7680 4325 7681 

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

HSK

177 
FZUS71 KBUF 162038
MWSBUF

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
438 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

LOZ043-044-063-064-162046-
/O.EXP.KBUF.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260516T2045Z/
438 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM EDT...

The affected areas were... 
  Lake Ontario from Irondequoit Bay to Oswego...

The showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to 
boaters. These weakened rain showers will remain for the next hour 
or so within the warned area. 

&&

LAT...LON 4320 7757 4363 7759 4363 7680 4379 7667
      4344 7647 4338 7660 4328 7668 4329 7676
      4323 7700 4325 7711 4325 7729
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 267DEG 33KT 4379 7649 4326 7650 

$$

Thomas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
121 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased POPS and QPF for this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and a few gusty thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening.

2) Summer-like heat Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few gusty thunderstorms this afternoon
and early evening.

A mid level shortwave and associated surface trough will cross the
eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening. Moisture
transport into the area and convergence along the boundary will be
enhanced on the nose of a 40 knot low level jet propagating across
the eastern Great Lakes late this afternoon and evening. Expect a
broken band of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to cross the
region from west to east from mid afternoon through early evening.
The fast movement will limit rainfall, with 0.10" to 0.25" on
average. A few locations may see somewhat higher amounts where
thunderstorms occur.

Surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s along with poor
low/mid level lapse rates will keep instability very limited. Even
with the modest instability, 40 knots of flow in the boundary layer
and evaporative cooling supporting quick downdraft development will
likely allow for gusty winds in any thunderstorms or heavier
showers. While gusty winds are likely, the chance of any severe
criteria gusts is very low given the lack of instability.

The showers and embedded thunder will rapidly end from west to east
this evening as the trough moves into eastern NY. This will leave a
mainly dry overnight, although a few spotty showers cannot be ruled
out as warm advection increases.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summer-like heat Monday and Tuesday.

Summer-like heat will build Monday behind a passing warm front
Sunday night. Speaking of which..it is quite possible we could even
see a shower or isolated thunderstorm with the passing of this warm
front. Have added very low end PoPs Sunday evening and night.

Building heights aloft across the eastern 1/3 of the U.S in concert
with 850 hPa T's rising to +14 to +17 will support summer-like heat
on Monday across the Lower Lakes. In terms of temperatures, expect
80s across much of western and north-central New York, with a few
lowers 90s possible for some of our normally warmest spots. With
building afternoon instability it will possibly lend to a few
showers or an isolated thunderstorm, especially along lake breeze
boundaries. While it will be warm, closer to the lakes it will be
cooler given area water temperatures are still not all that warm and
in the 40s to lower 50s. Take precautions if you plan to visit any
area waterways next week.

Heat continues Tuesday but we may be a few degrees cooler due in
large part to some clouds moving in as the trough begins to near the
region. That said...as the trough nears we may begin to see some
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon-evening. At this
point...it appears that the cold front will potentially hold off
passing through the eastern Great Lakes until late Tuesday night or
even early Wednesday. This will continue the threat for showers and
thunderstorms. After the cold front clears the area we will see it
turn cooler and drier, which will last through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level shortwave and surface trough will move east across the
eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening, producing a
broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms. This area of rain
will move quickly eastward, only lasting for a few hours at any one
location. Limited instability will keep coverage of thunder widely
scattered. A few storms may contain brief, heavy downpours and gusty
winds. Flight conditions will remain VFR most of the time this
afternoon, although some brief MVFR CIGS/VSBY is possible in the
more organized showers.

A 40 knot low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great
Lakes this afternoon and evening. Partial mixing will produce 15 to
25 knot wind gusts through early evening areawide, and possibly up
to 30 knots northeast of Lake Erie. There may be a brief window of
low level wind shear this evening across Western NY if surface winds
drop off prior to the exit of the low level jet.

Tonight through Sunday morning, a steep low level inversion will
develop behind the departing trough. Low level moisture trapped
beneath the inversion will bring the likelihood of some low stratus
and fog with local MVFR/IFR conditions developing. The most likely
areas for restrictions will be across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier, and also over and just east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario with higher dewpoints over the cold lakes increasing the
chance of marine layer stratus and fog.

The fog and low stratus will mostly dissipate by mid morning Sunday,
although some marine layer stratus and fog may persist over Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario through the day. It will be mostly dry,
although a spotty shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with
persistent warm advection aloft.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday..Mainly VFR. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
later in the afternoon.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms likely, ending later Wednesday.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds in the 12-17 knot range will continue to produce
choppy conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario at times through
this evening, but winds and waves are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

Winds will be light Sunday with flat wave action as the pressure
gradient relaxes across the lower Great Lakes. Relatively light
winds will continue through Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
124 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-171730-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
124 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-171730-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
124 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock