Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Buffalo, NY

087 
WHUS71 KBUF 160238
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1038 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

LOZ045-160345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-260916T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1038 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
313 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances for late this evening through early Wednesday have
been increased a bit across portions of the area. There remains
uncertainty regarding the placement of a frontal boundary and
axis of greater rain potential Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Occasional chances for showers and perhaps a few storms
tonight through Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected,
but locally heavy rain is possible where repeated rounds occur.

2) A brief period of drier, cooler conditions is expected
Thursday night through Friday night.

3) A potentially unsettled pattern with chances for occasional
showers and storms arrives Saturday through Monday, but with low
confidence on if the axis if greatest rain potential affects the
local area or remains farther southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will push in from the northwest late tonight into
Wednesday morning, stall/waiver over or just south of the area
through Thursday, before finally getting flushed out well to
the south Thursday night. The main forecast challenges through
Thursday will be determining the timing/placement of various
rain chances, along with if locally heavy rainfall can occur
with repeated rounds of showers/storms.

A shortwave will zip across southern Ontario/northern NY this
evening, bringing an initial uptick in shower potential,
particularly across the northern portions of the area (including
Rochester/Watertown/the Tug Hill). Another uptick in showers,
with potential for a bit of thunder, is expected into the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late tonight/pre-dawn
Wednesday amid continued warm air/moisture advection ahead of
the approaching cold front.

The cold front will push across portions of the area through the
day Wednesday before stalling closer to the PA boarder.
Locations north of the front should be dry on Wednesday, with
potential for scattered showers/an isolated storm continuing
along and south of the front. These rain chances should become
largely confined to the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes by
Wednesday afternoon.

A couple of weak shortwaves are expected to cross the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, each bringing an increase in
shower/storm chances with their passages. The front will likely
stall by Wednesday night, lift back north slightly into Thursday,
before finally sweeping southeast by Thursday night. Rain
chances will focus near and just south of the front. Deep-layer
flow will largely parallel to the front, which can support
training and/or repeated rounds of rain/storms as the front.
What becomes concerning is precipitable water values climbing to
2.00-2.25" along/south of the front Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, which is near or above record values for this
late in the year per KBUF sounding climatology. All of this to
say that we will need to monitor potential for heavy rain
Wednesday night into Thursday where repeated rounds or training
rain/storms occur, most likely along and just south of the
front. There is disagreement regarding whether the front will
remain closer to the PA border Wednesday night and Thursday, or
if it will be able to lift to closer to I-90. Weak instability
is expected to limit or preclude any severe wx potential.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected over the next
couple of days. Dew points will climb well into the 60s and
perhaps to near 70 at times for Wednesday and Thursday,
especially south of the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Strong high pressure briefly slides from Ontario/Quebec into New
England on Friday, bringing a brief spell of much cooler and
drier weather to the local area. Friday night will be the
coolest night, with much of the area (outside of urban centers
and the lakeshores) likely to dip into the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The active frontal boundary is expected to lift northeast back
towards southern NY this weekend into early next week. There is
quite a bit of disagreement regarding the placement of high
pressure over New England and this front. Some guidance suggests
stronger high pressure remains, keeping the front farther
southwest and suggesting a drier local forecast. Other guidance
depicts weaker high pressure, which would allow the front and
occasional rain potential to lift farther northeast and
potentially into Upstate NY this weekend into early next week.
The forecast is rather generic with several periods with chance
to likely PoPs for rain Saturday through Tuesday, with the
expectations that we'll be able to better refine that period
over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are occurring this afternoon and will
continue into the evening. A frontal boundary will enter from
the northwest late tonight and slowly sag across western NY on
Wednesday. Shower potential increases later this evening and
through the night ahead of the front. Thunder is not ruled out
around JHW early Wednesday, though confidence is too low for
inclusion in the TAF. Showers can bring brief vsby restrictions
this evening into early Wednesday. A period of MVFR ceilings is
also possible along and just behind the front Wednesday morning,
especially across western NY (including BUF, IAG, and ROC).
Potential for scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm
continue south of the front on Wednesday, with drier weather
north of it. Winds will remain south-southwest at 5-10kt (with
a few gusts to 20kt this afternoon) ahead of the front through
tonight, shifting northwest behind the front into Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely at
times along with a chance of a few thunderstorms.

Friday...MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday...VFR to start, with a chance for non-VFR in rain late
Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday...Non-VFR possible in rain, especially farther south.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow continues ahead of a cold front that will cross
the lakes Wednesday morning. This flow is in the 10-15kt range
over Lake Erie and 10-20kt over our eastern Great Lake. The
wind/wave forecast will likely necessitate a short-duration
Small Craft Advisory from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River.
Winds shift more north-northwest and subside to under 10kt
behind the cold front on Wednesday. Winds will generally vary
between the northwest and northeast at 10kt or less late
Wednesday through Thursday afternoon. North-northeast winds may
briefly elevate to 10-15kt late Thursday into Friday as we get a
stronger push of cool air. Risks for marine headlines are low
after tonight's small craft.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-160700-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-160700-
Jefferson-Lewis-
257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-160700-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-160700-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-160700-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf