Small Craft Advisory 64, NWS Buffalo, NY

902 
WHUS71 KBUF 230740
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
340 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

LOZ045-232000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260826T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
340 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-232000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.260823T1200Z-260825T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
340 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-232000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.260823T1200Z-260826T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
340 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

519 
WHUS71 KBUF 231401
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1001 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

LEZ040-041-240000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1001 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-240000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260826T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1001 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

349 
WHUS71 KBUF 231941
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

LEZ040-041-240345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
341 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-240345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260826T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
341 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

025 
WHUS71 KBUF 240406
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1206 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

LEZ040-041-242000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1206 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-242000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260826T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1206 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

682 
WHUS71 KBUF 242005
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
405 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

LEZ040-041-250400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
405 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-250400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
405 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-250400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
405 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

314 
WHUS71 KBUF 250356
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1156 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

LEZ040-041-250500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1156 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LOZ043>045-251200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1156 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-250900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1156 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

668 
WHUS71 KBUF 250740
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
340 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

LOZ042-250845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
340 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LOZ045-250845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
340 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...



$$

LOZ043-044-251400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T1400Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
340 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

523 
WHUS71 KBUF 251350
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
950 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

LOZ043-044-251500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-260825T1400Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
950 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Marine conditions are continuing to improve and are no longer
hazardous to small craft operators.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
304 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM EDT this
evening for Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, Allegany Counties and
farther west in WNY. Damaging straight-line wind gusts are
expected to be the main hazard with any severe storm. Only minor
changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some
severe, are expected through tonight.

2.) Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday
is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some
severe, are expected into tonight.

Cyclonic S'erly to SW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
troughs impact our region through tonight as a deepening
mid/upper-level low wobbles SSE'ward from northern ON to the
northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a consolidating and
deepening low should wobble E'ward from the northern Great Lakes
toward southeastern ON amidst mid/upper-level divergence and
MSLP falls downstream of the low aloft. This low track should
allow a warm front to continue drifting NE'ward through the
Finger Lakes and the Eastern Lake Ontario Region through this
evening and usher- in a moister air mass at the surface and
aloft, while a cold front will continue sweeping E'ward from
Lower MI and should reach far- western NY by daybreak Sunday.
Intervals of sunshine and low- level WAA ahead of and behind the
surface warm front will allow highs to reach mainly the mid
70's to lower 80's late this afternoon. Lows tonight should
reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially late this afternoon through tonight as weak to
moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE is released by the
following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough
axes, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front,
and downshear gust fronts interacting favorably with ambient
low-level vertical wind shear in the warm sector. Note: the
warm front passage will likely continue to be accompanied by
dry weather as pockets of dry air at the surface and especially
aloft precede the surface warm front. Deep-layer bulk shear is
expected to remain moderate and diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer is expected to yield steep low-level lapse rates
and moderate DCAPE through this early evening, west of roughly
the Genesee Valley. Thus, severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging straight-line wind gusts are a concern in and
especially west of the Genesee Valley. Steepening mid-level
lapse rates associated with mid/upper-level cooling associated
with the deepening low/trough aloft and resulting increase in
MUCAPE in the hail growth zone may allow a severe storm or two
to produce damaging hail the size of quarters. The severe storm
threat should end by late evening, following the onset of
boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling. Note: lake-
effect rain showers and thunderstorms are possible east and
especially southeast of Lake Erie toward and especially by
daybreak, as 850 mb temperatures cool to near 10C over the ~24C
lake amidst rich (i.e abundant/deep) synoptic-scale low-level
moisture, sizable lake-induced CAPE/lake-induced EL's as high
as 15kft to 25kft above lake level develop, and W'erly mean low-
level flow veers quickly to NW'erly behind the cold front.

Key Message 2...Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday.
Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week.

Cyclonic flow aloft, mainly SW'erly on Sunday, should become
W'erly to NW'erly Sunday night through Tuesday as the
aforementioned mid/upper-level low wobbles E'ward from the
northern Great Lakes toward southern QC through Monday and then
NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Tuesday. At the
surface, the aforementioned low will weaken gradually as it
wobbles NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence and becomes
vertically-stacked with the low aloft. The cold front should
sweep E'ward through the rest of our CWA by early evening.
Behind the front, a lake-aggregate surface trough should linger
over/near the eastern Great Lakes through Monday before a
surface ridge begins to build from the western Great Lakes by
Tuesday. This weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft
will allow a cooler air mass to overspread our region behind the
cold front and then linger through Tuesday. Daytime highs
should reach mainly the mid 60's to mid 70's on Sunday. The
coolest highs are expected in the higher terrain of Western NY.
Daytime highs should reach only the 60's to lower 70's on
Monday, when the core of the cooler air mass is expected to
reside over our region. Slightly warmer highs, mainly in the mid
60's to mid 70's, are expected on Tuesday. Overnight lows should
reach mainly the upper 40's to mid 50's Sunday night and Monday
night.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of Sunday's cold front. A few of these storms
may become severe roughly along and east of the Genesee Valley,
where peeks of sunshine and daytime warming may yield weak to
moderate boundary layer CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and
moderate DCAPE amidst moderate deep-layer bulk shear in the warm
sector. Behind the cold front, periods of lake-effect rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected primarily east and
southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario on Sunday through Tuesday as
a sufficiently-cold/moist low-level air mass crosses the ~23C
to ~24C lakes and sizable lake-induced CAPE continues to develop
through Monday, but then begins to wane on Tuesday as a
lowering/stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanies the
building surface ridge. Shortwave trough passages preceded by
SW'erly mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect
showers/thunderstorms to impact locations generally northeast of
the lakes, especially Lake Ontario, at times on Sunday and
Monday, behind the cold front. Outside lake-effect showers and
thunderstorms, additional rain showers are expected on Sunday
through Tuesday as shortwave trough passages and attendant surface
trough axes coincide with at least weak potential instability
in the lowest ~1 km AGL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface low pressure overhead of the central Great Lakes this
afternoon will slide east into the eastern Great Lakes, pushing a
pair of fronts across the region this evening and overnight. These
surface features are what are driving the line of scattered
convection across the Ohio Valley and the center of Lake Erie as of
17Z. This line is expected to progress eastward this afternoon (18Z
to 00Z), spreading convection inland. With the better instability
across far WNY, a few of the thunderstorms may become severe,
producing gusty winds in excess of 50kts. Overall flight conditions
will remain VFR, with the exception of the aforementioned
thunderstorms where conditions may drop down to brief and localized
MVFR/IFR from ceilings and visibility.

With the cold frontal passage this evening (after 00Z/Sun),
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass east across
the area, causing ceilings to drop to widespread MVFR with a swath
of IFR conditions across the western Southern Tier (impacting KJHW)
and the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario.

Wrap around moisture and cooler temperatures aloft in the wake of
the front Sunday morning will support lake enhanced showers east of
Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday, which will maintain widespread low
end VFR ceilings with MVFR ceilings within any lake effect showers
and clouds east of the Lakes.

Outlook...

Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
with associated MVFR/IFR, with mainly VFR expected outside of any
precipitation.

Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east
and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing
off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest
southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today.
A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes
will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday)
across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each
frontal boundary.

Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early
taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently
strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes.
While initial southerly flow Sunday should bring Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest
flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday
night, and then westerly flow Tuesday, will likely continue the
choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely.

In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for
waterspouts with the development of sizable lake-induced
instability combined with the cool air associated with cyclonic
flow around the upper-level low over the warm lakes. Initial
waterspout development will be as early as tonight over Lake
Erie and Sunday over Lake Ontario. This threat should continue
through Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
227 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

NYZ003>008-013-014-232000-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-
Ontario-
227 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging wind
gusts are possible through this evening, especially in and near the
Genesee Valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging
wind gusts are possible on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-232000-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
227 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging
wind gusts are possible on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-232000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
227 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Waterspouts are possible on Lake Erie through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging
wind gusts are possible on Sunday.

Waterspouts are possible on Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday through
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-232000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
227 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts
are possible on Sunday.

Waterspouts are possible on Lake Ontario Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-232000-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
227 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts
are possible on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf