Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Buffalo, NY

961 
WHUS71 KBUF 152249
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
649 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

LOZ042-160000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-260815T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
649 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
634 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Mainly dry weather continues through tonight.

2.) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday
into Sunday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible this Monday.

3.) Dry weather is expected this Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Mainly dry weather continues through tonight.

NW'erly flow aloft and stabilizing subsidence affect our region
today as a surface high pressure ridge affects the eastern
Great Lakes and vicinity, while the ridge aloft builds from the
Upper Midwest and vicinity. As a result, dry weather is expected
in all of Western and Central NY. Clear to partly cloudy sky
and weak or calm surface winds will contribute to lows reaching
the mid 40's to near 60F in the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and
mainly the 50's to lower 60's elsewhere in our CWA around
daybreak this morning. The coolest lows are expected in Lewis
County, especially the Black River Valley, where efficient
radiational cooling should be complemented by cool air drainage
from adjacent higher terrain. Sufficient nocturnal cooling and
low-level moisture will result in patchy radiation fog and
steam fog in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern
Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region through
shortly after daybreak. High temperatures late this afternoon
are expected to reach the 70's in the Eastern Lake Ontario
Region and the mid 70's to mid 80's elsewhere.

The ridge at the surface and aloft begins to exit E'ward tonight
as a shortwave trough approaches from the central Great Lakes
and a surface warm front approaches from the OH Valley and
vicinity. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough
axis and along the upper-reaches of the warm front should
release weak, yet sufficient elevated CAPE to allow isolated
showers and thunderstorms to impact the Western Southern Tier
during the predawn hours of Sunday morning. Fair weather is
expected to persist elsewhere in our CWA. Lows should reach the
mid 40's to lower 60's in the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and
mainly the lower to mid 60's elsewhere. Readings should begin to
moderate toward daybreak, especially in Western NY and the
Finger Lakes, as low-level WAA strengthens ahead of the warm
front.

Key Message 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected Sunday into Sunday night. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible this Monday.

Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
troughs will impact Western and Central NY on Sunday through
Monday. At the surface, a low should wobble SE'ward from the
northern Great Lakes to near southern New England and Long
Island. This low track should allow the surface warm front to
drift NE'ward through our CWA Sunday morning through evening,
which will usher-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating
over the Gulf, and be followed by the E'ward passage of a
surface cold front Sunday evening through Monday morning. Behind
the cold front, a surface ridge attempts to build from the
Upper Midwest and vicinity.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy
rainfall are expected along and ahead of the surface warm and
cold fronts as weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, including elevated
CAPE, amidst moderate to perhaps strong deep-layer bulk shear,
is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the
upper-reaches of the warm front, low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the surface warm and cold fronts, and as downshear
gust fronts interact favorably with low-level vertical wind
shear. Severe storms still appear possible Sunday afternoon into
the evening, but their occurrence will be contingent on
multiple factors, including the degree of diurnal
destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer.
Sufficient diurnal destabilization for severe storm occurrence
remains questionable given the expectation of abundant cloud
cover on Sunday. Behind the cold front, isolated rain showers
should occur Sunday night into Monday since subtle shortwave
troughs and attendant surface trough axes will traverse Western
and Central NY generally from west to east. Low-level convergence
and moist ascent along the surface trough axes should release
at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. A
few thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening,
before sunset, when the same lifting mechanisms may release weak
boundary layer CAPE stemming from daytime warming. Compared to
24-hours ago, the potential for lake-effect rain showers over
and generally southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight
Sunday night into Monday appears to be marginal since post-cold
front low-level CAA may be slightly weaker than projected by
previous cycles of NWP models. We will continue to monitor the
potential for lake-effect rain.

High temperatures are forecast to reach the 70's to lower 80's
Sunday afternoon. Lows should reach mainly the upper 50's to
mid 60's around daybreak Monday. Late afternoon highs should
reach the 70's to lower 80's on Monday, behind the weak cold
front.

Key Message 3...Dry weather is expected this Monday night
through Tuesday.

The above-mentioned high pressure ridge at the surface and
aloft should build from the western Great Lakes and vicinity
Monday night through Tuesday. Stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the ridge is expected to promote dry weather.
Considerable clearing and weak or calm surface winds
accompanying the ridge should contribute to lows reaching the
50's to lower 60's around daybreak Tuesday. Steam fog should
form in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier,
Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region during the
predawn hours of Tuesday morning and then dissipate via the
onset of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer shortly
after daybreak. Highs are forecast to reach the 70's to lower
80's late Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the surface, a high pressure ridge over/near the eastern
Great Lakes today begins to exit E'ward tonight as a warm front
approaches from the OH Valley and vicinity. Predominantly NE'erly
to SE'erly regional surface winds around 5 to 10 knots are
expected through 12Z/Sun. Mainly dry weather and VFR are
expected through the TAF period. However, there are two
exceptions:

1.) Patchy mist/fog and associated MVFR to LIFR are expected
before ~13Z/Sat, especially in and near the river and lake
valleys of the Western Southern Tier, including KJHW, Finger
Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region, perhaps including KART.

2.) Isolated showers and thunderstorms associated with the
upper-reaches of the warm front may impact the Western Southern
Tier, including KJHW, between ~06Z/Sun and ~12Z/Sun. Brief MVFR
to LIFR are possible with showers and especially storms.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night...Periodic showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or worse conditions expected.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance for isolated rain showers.

Monday Night through Tuesday...Dry weather with mainly VFR.
Late night/early morning fog with localized MVFR to LIFR
expected in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern
Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or worse conditions are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are
expected through the middle of the upcoming week. A high
pressure ridge over eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today
begins to exit E'ward tonight. Primarily NE'erly to E'erly winds
today veer to SE'erly tonight. On Sunday through Monday, a low
should wobble SE'ward from near the northern Great Lakes to near
southern New England. This low track should allow a warm front
to drift NE'ward across eastern Lake Erie on Sunday and across
Lake Ontario Sunday evening. The warm front passage will cause
SE'erly winds to veer to SW'erly. A cold front then sweeps
eastward across eastern Lake Erie Sunday evening and across Lake
Ontario Sunday evening through Sunday night and causes SW'erly
winds to veer to NW'erly.

Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over the lakes on
Monday before a high pressure ridge builds from the Upper
Midwest and vicinity Monday night. Winds are expected to vary
between W'erly and N'erly. Note: periodic showers and
thunderstorms should impact Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight
tonight and especially on Sunday through Monday. Showers and
especially storms may produce localized/brief strong winds and
larger waves.

On Tuesday, the ridge axis should move E'ward across eastern
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and cause winds to back to SW'erly.
S'erly to SW'erly winds are then expected Tuesday night through
Wednesday as the ridge exits slowly E'ward and a cold front
approaches from the northwest.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
212 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-160615-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
212 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-160615-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
212 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-160615-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
212 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf