Small Craft Advisory 62, NWS Buffalo, NY

076 
WHUS71 KBUF 101015
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

LEZ040-041-102000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0062.260810T1500Z-260811T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
615 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

865 
WHUS71 KBUF 101814
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

LEZ040-041-110300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0062.000000T0000Z-260811T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
214 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

703 
WHUS71 KBUF 110124
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
924 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

LEZ040-041-110230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0062.000000T0000Z-260811T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
924 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds continue to diminish this evening with waves subsiding. 
Therefore, conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft 
operators. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
257 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC Marginal Risk for severe weather (Level 1 of 5) was expanded
northward and now includes all areas south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active weather today through tonight, followed by periodic
chances for showers and storms through midweek, although plenty of
dry time can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Active weather today through tonight, followed by
periodic chances for showers and storms through midweek, although
plenty of dry time can be expected.

Active weather will return for today and tonight as high pressure
exits to our east. This will initially allow a warm frontal segment
to drift northeast across the region this morning in response to a
mid/upper shortwave dropping into the western Great Lakes. This will
bring the next chance for showers and isolated storms into western
New York early this morning, possibly impacting the morning commute.
This initial batch of showers and isolated storms will then shift
east across the remainder of the area through midday/early afternoon.

Overall environment does a look a bit more favorable for a few
stronger storms across areas south of Lake Ontario this afternoon
and evening. Moderate shear and deep moisture (PWAT values in the
1.5"-1.75" range) will already be in place, so as the atmosphere
destabilizes this afternoon, this will bring the better chance for
some more robust scattered convection. The main focus for storms
from mid afternoon into this evening will be along lake breeze
convergence boundaries south of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Erie.

A cold front will then push south across western and north-central
New York late this evening through the early overnight. Moderate
shear and a moist airmass will remain in place within the warm
sector ahead of the boundary, however loss of daytime heating will
result in less instability. That said, as lake breezes flip to land
breezes and move back out over the warm lake waters, can't rule out
a couple stronger storms possibly forming along and just ahead of
the surface cold front as it interacts with any lingering
boundaries, especially over the lakes.

As mentioned above, the threat for a few severe storms has been
expanded northward with the latest update from SPC, with the main
threat continuing to be strong winds. Thus, a Marginal Risk of
Severe Weather (Level 1 of 5) now includes all areas south of Lake
Ontario for mid afternoon through the early overnight. Potential for
localized heavy rainfall remains in place within the moist airmass,
for which WPC continues with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
(Level 1 of 4) for the entire area.

The cold front will stall just to our south tonight, then remain
nearly stationary through midweek. Drier air will reside to the
north of the boundary, with the main threat of showers and a few
storms toward the western Southern Tier Tuesday through Wednesday
closer to the frontal boundary, and mainly dry weather elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFs, a stalled frontal boundary to the south with
ongoing convection will lift northward today as a warm front with
several waves of showers and thunderstorms upon it. Tough to time
each element along the warm front, thus will have a prolonged period
with PROB30s. Any thunderstorm will bring brief periods of IFR
flight conditions in heavier downpours, while MVFR ceiling heights
in lingering cloud debris may remain for a few hours. While
convection will likely remain garden variety, a few strong storms
are possible as wind fields increase late this afternoon into this
evening.

Cold front will drop across the region between 06Z and 12Z Tuesday,
ending the threat for storms. Areas of IFR ceilings are likely
across the Southern Tier (KJHW), as well as east of Lake Ontario,
possibly impacting the KART airfield.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of periodic showers
and thunderstorms with localized MVFR or worse conditions possible.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
West to southwest flow will increase today as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front, with winds expected to
be around 15 knots or so. This will bring choppy conditions on both
Lakes, although waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria. The
cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes region tonight with winds
veering more west to northwest and diminishing to 10 knots or less,
although 12-15 knot northwesterlies will continue across eastern
Lake Ontario through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible on both Lakes today into tonight, with a few stronger
storms possible this afternoon and evening that will be capable of
producing strong winds and locally higher waves.

Winds of 10 knots or less are then expected for Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
307 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-110715-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
307 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.
There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for locally heavy rainfall
today through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-110715-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
307 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening with strong winds and locally higher
waves the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-110715-
Jefferson-Lewis-
307 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for locally heavy rainfall
today through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-110715-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
307 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf