Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2026

Small Craft Advisory 49, NWS Buffalo, NY

May 29, 2026

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at May 29, 2026, 3:45 AM EDT. It took effect at May 29, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 25 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 29, 2026, 3:45 AM EDT (07:45 UTC)
In effect from
May 29, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
Expired
May 30, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
In force
25 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted.

542 
WHUS71 KBUF 290745
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
345 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

LOZ042-292100-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1700Z-260530T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
345 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-292100-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1900Z-260530T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
345 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-292100-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1500Z-260530T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
345 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR
5 follow-up statements
493 
WHUS71 KBUF 291324
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
924 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

LEZ040-041-292130-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1700Z-260530T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
924 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-292130-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1700Z-260530T0200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
924 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-292130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1700Z-260530T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
924 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-292130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1900Z-260530T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
924 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-292130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1500Z-260530T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
924 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
593 
WHUS71 KBUF 291720
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

LOZ042-300130-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots this afternoon becoming
  north tonight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-300130-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Northeast winds 15 to 20
  knots overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-300130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.260529T1900Z-260530T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-300130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-300130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T0200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
307 
WHUS71 KBUF 300129
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
929 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

LEZ020-300230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T0200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
929 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LOZ042-300800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
929 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-301000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
929 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-301000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
929 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-301000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
929 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
029 
WHUS71 KBUF 300744
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
344 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

LOZ042-300845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
344 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels and will
continue to subside this morning...therefore the advisory has been
cancelled.

$$

LOZ043-044-301600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
344 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-301200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
344 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-301200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
344 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR
265 
WHUS71 KBUF 301154
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
754 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

LOZ045-301500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
754 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-301500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
754 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-301600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-260530T1600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
754 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at May 29, 2:34 AM EDT, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • 1) Another cold front will cross the area late today and tonight with a few showers, followed by notably below normal temperatures Saturday. 2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the first half of next week, with a few showers possible at times east of Lake Ontario.
Area forecast discussion, May 29, 2:34 AM EDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
234 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have only made some minor adjustments to the forecast with this
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another cold front will cross the area late today and tonight
with a few showers, followed by notably below normal temperatures
Saturday.

2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the first half
of next week, with a few showers possible at times east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another cold front will cross the area late today
and tonight with a few showers, followed by notably below normal
temperatures Saturday.

A compact but vigorous closed low will quickly dive southeast across
Quebec today...with this feature reaching the Upper Saint Lawrence
Valley by early this evening before making its way further
southeastward across New England tonight...then out to sea on
Saturday. While the deepest moisture and best forcing attendant to
this system will pass by to our northeast...our region will still be
subject to the passage of an associated trailing cold front later
this afternoon and evening.

As it has looked for the past several days...the best potential for
showers in our area will lie across the North Country...which will
be closest to the track of the low and consequently where the best
combination of moisture and forcing in our area will be realized.
Expect a few showers to develop there during the early to mid
afternoon hours...become a bit more numerous late today into this
evening with the passage of the cold front...and then diminish
overnight as the system departs off to our southeast. Meanwhile
further to the west...both forcing and moisture along the front will
diminish with increasing westward extent...and should thus yield
only a few short-lived scattered to widely scattered showers across
the remainder of the area late this afternoon and evening.

Any leftover showers east of Lake Ontario should come to an end
early Saturday morning...with dry weather otherwise expected on
Saturday as expansive Canadian high pressure and drier air/
subsidence builds southeastward across the Great Lakes. With a much
cooler airmass in place (850 mb temps of around 0C to +3C Saturday
morning, then warming only slightly in the afternoon)...high temps
on Saturday will be notably below normal...with readings largely
peaking in the lower 60s across the lower elevations...and only in
the upper 50s across the higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below normal temperatures through
the first half of next week, with a few showers possible at times
east of Lake Ontario.

During the first half of next week a large...high-amplitude trough
draped from New England/the Canadian Maritimes southward across the
western Atlantic will gradually evolve into a closed low somewhere
off the mid-Atlantic coastline...while a pronounced Omega Block over
central Canada weakens and devolves into broader/flatter ridging
over the western/central Great Lakes. During this time our region
will remain embedded within the broad northerly flow in between
these two features...with the latter resulting in an extended period
of near to slightly below (but quite comfortable) temperatures. At
the same time...periodic shortwave impulses dropping through the
backside of the larger-scale mean trough will bring the potential
for a few showers to the North Country and perhaps the Finger Lakes
at times...with mainly dry weather favored further west across far
western New York. Later on in the week the closed low should slowly
eject northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes while the broad/flat
ridge to our west builds eastward...with the latter likely resulting
in a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A closed low will quickly dive southeastward across Quebec today...
with this feature reaching the Upper Saint Lawrence Valley by early
this evening...then pushing further southeast across New England
tonight. In the process this system will push its trailing cold
front across the area later this afternoon and this evening while
generating scattered to numerous showers east of Lake Ontario...and
progressively more widely scattered showers with increasing westward
extent across the rest of the area. While flight conditions will be
predominantly VFR...some MVFR ceilings will become increasingly
likely east of Lake Ontario (including at KART) this evening. Out
ahead of the front...increasing west-southwesterly flow will result
in surface winds increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to near 30
knots northeast of the lakes today...with winds then veering sharply
to northerly and diminishing some following the frontal passage this
evening.

Following the passage of the cold front...expect lingering areas of
MVFR/patchy IFR ceilings and diminishing showers east of Lake
Ontario overnight...with dry/mainly VFR conditions prevailing
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Saturday...Lingering MVFR ceilings across the interior Southern
Tier/Finger Lakes/North Country early...otherwise VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers across the North
Country late.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR...with a chance of showers/MVFR
east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
West to west-southwesterly winds will increase out ahead of another
cold front today...leading to the development of Small Craft
Advisory conditions across much of Lake Ontario...and to near-SCA
conditions across eastern Lake Erie.

Following the frontal passage this evening...winds will then quickly
veer to northerly on Lake Ontario...with advisory-worthy conditions
there gradually diminishing from west to east from late this evening
through Saturday morning. Meanwhile on Lake Erie...winds will veer
to north-northeasterly in the wake of the front and lead to another
round of choppy conditions southwest of Dunkirk this evening...with
winds and wave action then diminishing overnight and Saturday
morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
Hazardous weather outlook, May 29, 1:11 AM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
111 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-300515-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
111 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-300515-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
111 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JJR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 3:44 AM EDTBeach Hazards StatementBUFCayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Jefferson, Monroe, Orleans and 2 more32 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2026Every small craft advisory in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.