Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Buffalo, NY

799 
WHUS71 KBUF 130746
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
346 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

LEZ040-041-131900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.260513T1500Z-260514T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
346 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-131900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.260513T0900Z-260513T1900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
346 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

382 
WHUS71 KBUF 131803
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
203 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

LOZ043-044-140215-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
203 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140215-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
203 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-140000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
203 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
203 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

367 
WHUS71 KBUF 132354
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
754 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

LEZ040-041-140100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
754 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

$$

LOZ045-140100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
754 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

$$

LOZ043-044-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
754 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet..

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
754 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet..

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

348 
WHUS71 KBUF 140250
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1050 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

LOZ043-044-140400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1050 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

$$

LOZ042-140500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1050 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves up to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

833 
WHUS71 KBUF 140451
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1251 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

LOZ042-140600-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-260514T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1251 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Return to wet and cool conditions for the middle to late portion
of the week.

2) A notable warming trend later this week will push temperatures
well above average into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Return to wet and cool conditions for the middle to
late portion of the week.

A sfc low and potent shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes
today will slowly track southeast to SE Ontario by Wednesday
morning. The warm front associated with the system will start to
push rain showers into the region this evening and into tonight.
Strong forcing from the front and increased moisture will bring the
potential for moderate to heavy showers at times tonight, especially
near and east of Lake Ontario, closer to the triple point for the
system. Showers will expand east through the first half of the night
as the warm front crosses the area. Showers will linger across the
entire area for the rest of the night.

Wednesday, the sfc low will start to become vertically stacked with
its mid and upper level lows through the day on Wednesday,
developing an occluded front in the process. With the warm front
generally found from west to east across Lake Ontario, the most
persistent showers will continue over and east of Lake Ontario.
Showers south of Lake Ontario will scatter out during the morning to
some extent, but a pre-frontal trough, followed by the systems cold
front will track across the area from mid morning through the
afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms will also be possible during
the day on Wednesday, but instability ahead of the trough and
frontal passage will be limited. Showers along the trough and cold
front will have the potential to become heavy at times. Showers will
taper off from west to east during the late afternoon into the
evening on Wednesday. Guidance stalls the passing cold front just
east of the BUF forecast area, so showers for the Eastern Lake
Ontario area will linger the longest, into Thursday morning.

For Thursday, depending on where the cold front stalls, the chance
for showers will continue through the day east of Lake Ontario.
South of Lake Ontario, less organized showers will be possible for
most of the day as the mid/upper level low remains over the area and
as daytime heating increases instability with a cool airmass aloft.
Favorable upsloping areas will also have increased potential for
showers. Showers will taper off Thursday night, but a few showers
can't be ruled out for Friday east of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures behind the passing cold front will cool once again for
later Wednesday through Thursday night. Afternoon highs will
approach 15 degrees below normal for Thursday, with values only
reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s. Areas to the east will be
slightly warmer, depending on where the cold front stalls.
Temperatures will start to warm on Friday, with continued warming
into the weekend, more on that below.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A notable warming trend later this week will push
temperatures well above average into next week.

The closed low aloft across the Northeast will eventually get pushed
out to sea by a flattening upper level ridge late this week. In its
wake, broad sfc-700mb ridging will expand across the Southeast which
will support a Bermuda High type pattern into next week. Resultant
deep S/SW flow across the East will advect a considerably warmer
airmass into the Great Lakes with 850mb temps near 0C Thursday
increasing to the teens by Saturday. This will translate to
seasonable to slightly cool surface temps Friday, then hedging
several degrees above average over the weekend with highs in the 70s
for most areas.

Moving into next week, a powerful southwesterly LLJ ahead of an
approaching cold front will cause the warmth to surge with models
largely suggesting 850mb temps peaking the upper teens across the
Great Lakes between Monday and Tuesday. If verified this would
likely cause afternoon surface temps into the 80s for most areas, at
least those south of Lake Ontario. Confidence is low in whether or
not this warmth will last into Tuesday due to uncertainty in the
timing of the cold front, as evidenced by very large NBM high temp
75th-25th percentile spread Tuesday of 15-20F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are present this afternoon under mostly clear skies
as high pressure slides eastward to the New England coast. An
occluded frontal system will approach from the west tonight, leading
to the development of rain showers across WNY, and eventually MVFR
conditions as rain becomes steadier overnight and into tomorrow
morning. There is some potential for IFR across the southern tier
tomorrow morning during the peak of the rain for a few hours, but
will hold off on indicating this in the TAF for now. Elsewhere
ceilings should bottom out around 1200-1800 ft, and begin to
slightly lift/scatter by early tomorrow afternoon, but remain MVFR.

A 40-50 knot low level jet will cross the eastern Great Lakes early
tomorrow morning, which has the potential to result in low level
wind shear across Western NY, and then surface gusts 20-30 kts later
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Areas of MVFR with showers likely
at times.

Friday...A chance of showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario. Areas of
MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move into the central Great Lakes tonight,
reaching the lower Great Lakes by tomorrow morning. Southeast winds
will ramp up ahead of this system later tonight through tomorrow,
likely bringing a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the
east end of Lake Ontario. Winds will become more southwesterly with
time later tomorrow, with a moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Lighter winds will return Thursday and Friday with a
weakening pressure gradient across the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...PP/SW
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SGK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
226 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-131830-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
226 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-131830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
226 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf