Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Buffalo, NY

331 
WHUS71 KBUF 292000
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
400 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

LOZ043-044-300400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.260430T1600Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
400 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 2 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-300400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.260430T1800Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
400 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

391 
WHUS71 KBUF 292359
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

LOZ043-044-300800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.260430T1600Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-300800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.260430T1800Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

209 
WHUS71 KBUF 300823
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
423 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

LOZ043-044-302000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.260430T1600Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
423 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From noon today to 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-302000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.260430T1800Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
423 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

465 
WHUS71 KBUF 301956
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

LOZ043-044-010600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-010600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

335 
WHUS71 KBUF 010139
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
939 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

LOZ043>045-010245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-260501T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
939 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A widespread soaking rain this afternoon and tonight.

2) Cool temperatures and continued potential for showers for late
in the week into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A widespread soaking rain this afternoon and tonight.

Upper-level troughing sprawled across Ontario Province will
gradually deepen as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes
today and tonight. As it does so...increasing height falls/DCVA on
its eastern flank will spur the development of a secondary surface
low across the Ohio Valley early this morning...with this low then
deepening and lifting northeastward to the vicinity of Watertown by
early this evening...before lifting out across southern Quebec
tonight.

As the low approaches and makes its way across our region today...
increasing moisture will result in PWATs rising to the vicinity of 1
inch. At the same time...developing strong/deep-layer forcing driven
by the advancing upper trough...favorable upper level jet dynamics/
diffluence aloft...and the tightening low level thermal gradient
will all act to lift this moisture...resulting in a period of
widespread soaking rain overspreading our region from southwest to
northeast this afternoon. With some very weak instability (100-200
J/kg of MUCAPE) in place there could also be a few embedded rumbles
of thunder...with the best chances for such extending from the
southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes and North
Country.

The rain will then diminish from west to east tonight as surface low
and better large-scale forcing slide off to our northeast...with the
latest guidance suite supporting a somewhat faster overall departure
to the rain. This should result in most areas south of Lake Ontario
seeing a return to dry weather by sunrise on Thursday...though some
showers are likely to linger into early Thursday morning east of
Lake Ontario.

Basin-average rainfall amounts from this system still look be on the
order of 0.75" to 1.25" for the majority of the area...though the
axis of the heaviest rainfall has flopped a little further back to
the west in the latest suite of guidance...with a multimodel
consensus currently suggesting this will lie from the Genesee Valley
eastward across the Finger Lakes and North Country. Provided the
heavier rainfall does not jog a little further westward...extreme
far WNY may see somewhat lower rainfall totals on the order of a
half to three quarters of an inch. While such amounts should not be
enough to result in any notable flood concerns...these will still
lead to ponding of water in poor drainage and low-lying areas given
the antecedent wet ground conditions...as well as within-bank rises
on area waterways.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool temperatures and continued potential for
showers for late in the week into the start of next week.

A developing mid/upper level closed low will be located near the
Central Great Lakes and Central Ontario Thursday morning. This low
will start to wrap moisture into itself from todays passing sfc low
bringing rain to the region. As this closed low slowly tracks
across SE Canada through the weekend, it will bring a cyclonic
pattern and cool temperatures to the region. This will result in
periods of showers through at least the weekend and into early next
week. Showers will be generally light, but will have more coverage
with passing shortwave troughs within the larger scale trough and
closed low. As these shortwave troughs cross the area and increase
forcing, some response off of both Lake Erie & Ontario, as well as
upsloping, areas of surface convergence and daytime heating with
cooler temperatures aloft (steeper lapse rates) will all contribute
to the potential for showers at different times through the weekend
and into early next week. Depending on time of day/night and
elevation, snow will mix in at times, but no accumulations are
expected. With the cold temperatures aloft to around -5C at times
and at times strong daytime heating for late April/early May daytime
instability showers will be possible with graupel/small hail.

Temperatures will average some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for
most locations, with most areas only in the upper 40s to low 50s
through the weekend. With the cooler than normal temperatures
expected at night as well, areas where clearing skies and weak winds
setup will have the potential for frost. The growing season starts
on May 1st for most of the counties in the BUF CWA, except for
Allegany, Cattaraugus, Lewis and Jefferson counties. For counties
where the growing season starts on May 1st, appropriate frost/freeze
headlines will be issued if necessary.

Temperatures will start to warmup at least briefly as this deeper
and cooler closed low finally shifts northeast away from the area,
but precipitation wise the active pattern will continue through much
of next week as well with large scale troughing patterns expected to
remain over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With low-level moisture increasing in the vicinity of a stalled-out
frontal zone draped across the area...we can expect MVFR ceilings to
continue developing across the majority of the area through
sunrise...with IFR/LIFR conditions in lower ceilings/fog expanding
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

Developing surface low pressure over the Ohio Valley early this
morning will then deepen and lift northeastward along the stalled-
out boundary today...with the low reaching the vicinity of KART by
early this evening. This will result in a widespread soaking rain
overspreading the area from southwest to northeast this afternoon
and continuing into early this evening...with the rain driving
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR...and ceilings down into the IFR/LIFR
range areawide as the low levels saturate.

As the low and associated stronger forcing departs across southern
Quebec tonight the steadier rain will diminish across the region
from west to east...with areas south of Lake Ontario seeing a return
to dry weather by late tonight. Lingering low-level moisture behind
the departing system will result in ceilings being somewhat slower
to improve however...with widespread IFR/LIFR at the start of this
evening giving way to largely MVFR conditions south of Lake Ontario
by later tonight...while IFR ceilings linger across the North
Country.

Outlook...

Thursday...IFR/MVFR with lingering showers across the North Country
and MVFR/VFR elsewhere in the morning...then VFR/MVFR with scattered
showers across western New York in the afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with periodic scattered rain
showers...with some wet snowflakes possibly mixing in across the
higher terrain at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley early this morning will
deepen and track northeastward to the vicinity of Watertown by early
this evening...before lifting out across southern Quebec tonight.
Out ahead of this system a north to northeasterly flow will develop
and slowly increase today...though winds should generally remain at
or under 15 knots. Winds will then back to westerly and increase
further on Lake Ontario tonight in the wake of the departing low...
with a moderately brisk westerly flow then continuing across the
lake through Thursday. This will likely result in a period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions on central and eastern portions of Lake
Ontario from the second half of tonight through Thursday and into
Thursday evening. Depending upon how much the pressure gradient
tightens across the region on Thursday...a brief period of SCA
conditions is also possible on Lake Erie from Thursday afternoon
into early Thursday evening...though confidence in this is notably
lower.

Looking further out through the end of the week...a continued
unseasonably cool airmass and moderate pressure gradient may support
additional periods of SCA conditions at times...particularly across
Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJR/SW
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-300645-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
244 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-300645-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
244 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JJR