Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2026

Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Buffalo, NY

April 12, 2026

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Apr 12, 2026, 9:46 AM EDT. It took effect at Apr 12, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 27 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 12, 2026, 9:46 AM EDT (13:46 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 12, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT
Expired
Apr 13, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT
In force
27 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted.

081 
WHUS71 KBUF 121346
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
946 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

LOZ044-045-122200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.260413T0000Z-260414T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
946 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
199 
WHUS71 KBUF 121945
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
345 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

LEZ040-041-130800-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.260413T0400Z-260413T2000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
345 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-130800-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.260413T0600Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
345 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-130800-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.260413T0600Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
345 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-130800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.260413T0000Z-260414T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
345 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds becoming southwest winds 15 to 25 knots 
  and waves 3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
152 
WHUS71 KBUF 130745
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
345 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

LEZ020-LOZ030-132000-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.260413T1100Z-260413T2300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
345 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-132000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260413T2300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
345 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-132000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
345 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-132000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
345 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-132000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
345 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
396 
WHUS71 KBUF 131942
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

LOZ044-045-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-132300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260413T2300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-132300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260413T2300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
672 
WHUS71 KBUF 132246
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

LEZ020-LOZ030-140000-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260413T2300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
646 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...


$$

LEZ040-041-140000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
646 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
646 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
646 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
646 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
580 
WHUS71 KBUF 132353
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
753 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

LEZ040-041-140100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
753 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Southwest winds will continue to diminish through the evening
hours. 

$$

LOZ042-140100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
753 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...


$$

LOZ043-140100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
753 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...


$$

LOZ044-045-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-260414T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
753 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 12, 6:51 AM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • 1) Dry weather through the bulk of this morning, with increasing shower chances this afternoon, especially north of I-90. 2) Much warmer but unsettled weather through much of the week.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 12, 6:51 AM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather through the bulk of this morning, with increasing
shower chances this afternoon, especially north of I-90.

2) Much warmer but unsettled weather through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather through the bulk of this morning, with
increasing shower chances this afternoon, especially north of I-90.

Most, if not all of the area looks to remain rain-free through
midday (mid to late morning far western NY) as high pressure drifts
east into New England today, then off the coast this evening. Shower
chances will ramp up this afternoon into the evening as a warm front
crosses the region. The best shower chances will be north of I-90,
and especially further north toward the North Country and SL Valley
where the better forcing and moisture will lie along and ahead of
the warm front. Low chances for a shower toward the NY/PA line, with
many areas there quite possibly remaining dry through the entire
day. A tightening pressure gradient will bring a noticeable uptick
in a southerly breeze during the afternoon hours.

Warm front moves just north of the area later this evening where it
will remain through the overnight with the bulk of the area rain-
free during this timeframe, although will linger close enough to the
North Country to keep the threat for a few scattered light showers
going there through the overnight. A cold front will then approach
late tonight bringing renewed chances for rain showers by early
Monday morning. Southerly flow will continue to strengthen through
the overnight with 25-35 mph S/SSWerly gusts possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much warmer but unsettled weather through much of
the week.

A pair of strong Pacific troughs will move into the western CONUS
through the first half of the week, supporting gradual height rises
and building warmth over the eastern US through much of the week.
The westerlies and an east-west oriented frontal zone will remain
draped from the Great Lakes to New England for much of the week,
supporting frequent rain chances.

Looking at the details, a low amplitude mid level shortwave and weak
cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday, supporting a
period of showers moving from west to east across the region. A
strong 50+ knot low level jet will also cross the eastern Great
Lakes in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Low level lapse
rates will be poor in the warm sector, but partial mixing will still
support wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range in most areas, and 40+ mph
across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester.

A few more rounds of showers are likely Tuesday through Wednesday as
a series of weak mid level shortwaves move east across the Great
Lakes and the frontal zone remains nearby. The timing of the better
rain chances becomes more uncertain with time, but at least some
rain is likely each day. Building warmth and higher dewpoints will
support at least some modest instability with a chance of a few
thunderstorms as well.

A Pacific shortwave will move east late in the week, supporting a
surface low moving across the upper Great Lakes to Quebec Wednesday
night through Thursday night. The trailing cold front is forecast to
cross the eastern Great Lakes later Thursday or Thursday night,
supporting ongoing chances of rain and a few thunderstorms. A weak
ridge of high pressure may build into the region behind this system
by Friday, finally bringing a mainly dry day.

Warmth will continue to build through the week. Highs Monday will be
in the 65-70 degree range in most areas, only held back by the early
arrival of clouds and showers. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will
be well into the 70s for most areas away from the influence of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario, with a few near 80 degree readings possible
in the typical warmer spots in the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes.
Humidity will also creep upward, with surface dewpoints around 60F
by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over central NY will keep widespread VFR flight
conditions intact through at least midday, with mid level decks
thickening and lowering from west to east through the morning hours
ahead of an approaching warm front. Shower chances will ramp up this
afternoon into the evening as a warm front crosses the region. The
best shower chances will be north of I-90, and especially further
north toward the North Country (KART) and SL Valley where brief
periods of MVFR VSBY will be possible in any heavier showers. CIGS
are expected to remain VFR, although a period of low-VFR CIGS will
possible across the terminals north of I-90.

Warm front moves north of the area later this evening and remains
there through the overnight with mainly rain-free and VFR flight
conditions expected in the wake of the frontal passage. A strong 50-
55 knot LLJ will move overhead behind the warm front. Poor lapse
rates will limit the extent of mixing of these winds to the surface,
however typical localized spots north of terrain barriers may see
some higher gusts, though most areas will see S/SSWerly gusts in the
20-25 knot range. The possibility of limited mixing of these
stronger winds down to the surface will also lead to the potential
for LLWS starting this evening and lasting through the overnight.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR/MVFR (IFR at times) with a few
showers likely at times, along with a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift east of the area with an offshore wind
component developing and gradually strengthening through the day.
There will be a more noticeable uptick in the winds by early
evening, with a fresh S to SSW breeze developing on the lakes
tonight and Monday, with a period of strong southerly breezes
possible across the eastern third of Lake Ontario tonight. Small
craft headlines will likely be needed during this timeframe before
winds and waves subside below advisory criteria Monday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 12, 2:46 AM EDT, 7 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
246 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-130700-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
246 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-130700-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
246 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2026Every small craft advisory in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.