Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2026
Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 AM EDT. It was in force for 22 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 AM EDT (12:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 18, 2026, 6:24 AM EDT
- In force
- 22 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted.
648 WHUS71 KBUF 171203 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 803 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 LEZ040-041-172015- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.260317T1203Z-260318T0200Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 803 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-062-171500- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T1500Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 803 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ043>045-063>065-172015- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T2300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 803 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-172000- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-260317T2000Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 803 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ Hitchcock
6 follow-up statements
106 WHUS71 KBUF 171501 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1101 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 LOZ042-172315- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T1500Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 1101 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ062-171615- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T1500Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 1101 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... $$ LOZ043>045-063>065-172300- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T2300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1101 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West gales to 35 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-172315- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T0200Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 1101 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-172000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-260317T2000Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 1101 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots. * WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
820 WHUS71 KBUF 171955 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 355 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 LEZ020-LOZ030-172100- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-260317T2000Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 355 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... $$ LOZ043>045-063>065-172300- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T2300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 355 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-180200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T0200Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 355 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-180400- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 355 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
950 WHUS71 KBUF 172255 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 655 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 LOZ043>045-180700- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.260317T2300Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 655 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ063>065-180000- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260317T2300Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 655 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... $$ LEZ040-041-180600- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T0600Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 655 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-180700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 655 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
345 WHUS71 KBUF 180521 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 121 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 LEZ040-041-180630- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T0600Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 121 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels and will continue to subside overnight...therefore the advisory has been cancelled. $$ LOZ042-181100- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 121 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ043>045-181100- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 121 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ JJR
375 WHUS71 KBUF 180742 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 342 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 LOZ042-180845- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 342 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels and will continue to subside this morning...therefore the advisory has been cancelled. $$ LOZ043>045-181100- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 342 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ JJR
724 WHUS71 KBUF 181024 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 624 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 LOZ043>045-181130- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260318T1100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 624 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels and will continue to subside this morning...therefore the advisory has been cancelled. $$ JJR
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Mar 17, 5:45 AM EDT, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Gusty winds will continue this morning. 2) Winter-like conditions will continue through tonight, bringing cold air and lake effect snow showers to the area. 3) A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow later this week and weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 5:45 AM EDT, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
545 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this issuance.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds will continue this morning.
2) Winter-like conditions will continue through tonight, bringing
cold air and lake effect snow showers to the area.
3) A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow
later this week and weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds will continue this morning.
An upper level trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes
region today. A broad area of 40-50 knots within a well-mixed
boundary layer will support gusty winds across the region this
morning. Wind gusts of 40-50 knots will peak across the region
through daybreak. The highest gusts will be northeast of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario as well as along the lakeshores. Winds aloft will
weaken through today and wind gusts will drop off by this evening. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area through 11AM
this morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Winter-like conditions will continue through
tonight, bringing cold air and lake effect snow showers to the area.
A strong area of low pressure continues to move northeast across
Quebec this morning. Cold air continues to wrap around the
backside of the low and moist, westerly flow with 850mb
temperatures falling through the minus teens this morning will
support convective snow showers across the region today, and
lake effect snow continuing through tonight.
Temperatures will only rebound into the low to mid 20s, with
wind chills around zero today. Low temperatures will fall to the
single digits to low teens tonight. Fresh snow and good radiational
cooling may result in low temperatures near zero or below
across the northern Tug Hill region tonight.
High temperatures will reach the low to mid 20s today, with lows
Off Lake Ontario...
A southwesterly flow in the boundary layer and lake induced
equilibrium levels rising to 7-9k feet will support a band of
lake effect snow across the Saint Lawrence Valley through mid-
morning. The flow will veer through the day and the band will
settle across the Tug Hill region before reaching northern
Cayuga and southern Oswego county by evening. Snowfall rates may
reach 2+ inches per hour at times. The high March sun angle may
disrupt band organization during the midday through early
evening hours as strong diurnal mixing interferes with the
convergence structures supporting the band.
The lake band is expected to intensify across northern Cayuga and
southern Oswego county tonight, before weakening towards Wednesday
morning. Snowfall rates may again reach 2+ inches per hour in the
most intense band.
Additional snow accumulations of 6-10" across the Tug Hill Plateau
and also across central/southern Oswego County and far northern
Cayuga County through tonight. The rest of the area east of Lake
Ontario will see 2-5" from a combination of synoptic snow early this
morning and then lake effect snow thereafter. A Lake Effect Snow
Warning remains in effect.
Off Lake Erie...
A westerly flow will focus lake effect snow across the western
Southern Tier this morning. Surface high pressure across the Gulf
Coast states will nose northward into the Ohio Valley and snow will
become weak and diminish by this evening. Additional snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is expected today, with the highest
amounts across southwest Chautauqua County. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect through 8PM today.
Winds will remain gusty today, with blowing and drifting snow in
lake effect areas.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A few systems will bring periodic chances for some
rain/snow later this week and weekend.
Later this week and during the upcoming weekend a broad...but
gradually flattening upper level ridge will remain in place over the
Desert Southwest...while a broad/low amplitude upper level trough
will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Between Thursday
and Saturday a few weak/progressive shortwave disturbances and
associated surface lows will ripple through the base of the larger-
scale mean trough and bring periodic chances for some light
precipitation to our region. With respect to ptype...marginal
thermal profiles should support more of a a rain/snow mix
initially...with snow more common at night/across the higher
terrain and rain more common by day/across the lower elevations.
By later in the weekend a somewhat stronger surface low may enter
our region. Depending upon its eventual track and strength (both of
which remain in question at this vantage point)...this could bring
either a rain/snow mix or predominantly rain on its front side...
followed by a return to seasonably colder air and a few snow showers
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A moist, cyclonic flow will support convective snow showers
through tonight. A mix of flight conditions is expected in snow
showers this morning. Coverage will eventually become focused
east of the Lakes, mainly across the western southern Tier east
of Lake Erie and across the eastern Lake Ontario region.
Diurnal mixing and instability will support an uptick in convective
showers and possibly bands from upstream connections today.
Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected, however IFR or below is
expected in snow showers.
Lake effect snow showers will weaken east of Lake Erie tonight,
however MVFR ceilings will likely persist at KJHW. A lake effect
band will be focused southeast of Lake Ontario tonight, and should
be between KROC and KART tonight. VFR conditions are expected
outside of lake effect clouds and snow showers.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with a few rain or snow showers.
Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong southwest-west wind will continue on the Lakes this
morning. Gale force is expected to continue through this morning,
with gale force lingering through this afternoon across the eastern
end of Lake Ontario.
Winds will diminish through mid-week bringing a period of light
winds and small waves. Ice on Lake Erie has retracted to now just
along the Erie county shoreline.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>008-
010>014-019>021-085.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ005-
006.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ007-008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ019-
020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ020.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042-062.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043>045-
063>065.
&&
DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSKHazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 3:49 AM EDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 NYZ007-008-180800- Jefferson-Lewis- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>004-010>014-021-085-180800- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-Southern Erie- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ005-006-180800- Northern Cayuga-Oswego- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ019-020-180800- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042-062-180800- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ043>045-063>065-180800- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-180800- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-180800- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-180800- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 17, 5:52 AM EDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
552 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 AM Snow 3 SW Elma 42.81N 78.68W
03/17/2026 M4.0 Inch Erie NY Cocorahs
&&Local storm report, Mar 17, 6:50 AM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0641 AM Snow Sardinia 42.54N 78.50W
03/17/2026 M5.8 Inch Erie NY Trained Spotter
&&Special weather statement, Mar 17, 7:13 AM EDT, 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 713 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-171430- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson- Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 713 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...ICY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING... The combination of several inches of snow and rapidly falling temperatures overnight has resulted in widespread hardpack and icy conditions on roads, even on major interstate routes. The icy and very slippery conditions will persist through the morning commute. Slow down and allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination. The high March sun angle should allow for improving conditions by midday as pavement temperatures warm. Hitchcock
Local storm report, Mar 17, 7:36 AM EDT, 27 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
736 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM Snow Cassadaga 42.34N 79.32W
03/17/2026 M8.0 Inch Chautauqua NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station CSGN6 Cassadaga.
0540 AM Snow 2 W Houghton 42.43N 78.19W
03/17/2026 M7.3 Inch Allegany NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station RUHN6 Rushford.
0600 AM Snow 3 NE Holland 42.67N 78.51W
03/17/2026 M5.8 Inch Erie NY Trained Spotter
0700 AM Snow 2 SE East Aurora 42.74N 78.59W
03/17/2026 M5.2 Inch Erie NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station WLSN6 Wales.
0721 AM Snow 1 SW Franklinville 42.33N 78.46W
03/17/2026 M5.1 Inch Cattaraugus NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station FRKN6 Franklinville.
0700 AM Snow 5 NW Gainesville 42.69N 78.22W
03/17/2026 M5.0 Inch Wyoming NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station WRSN6 Warsaw 6SW.
0600 AM Snow 1 NW Constableville 43.58N 75.45W
03/17/2026 M4.5 Inch Lewis NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-LW-3 Constableville 1.2
NW.
0500 AM Snow 1 WNW Fredonia 42.44N 79.35W
03/17/2026 M4.5 Inch Chautauqua NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-CQ-22 Fredonia 0.8 WNW.
0700 AM Snow 2 SE Elma Center 42.81N 78.61W
03/17/2026 M4.0 Inch Erie NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-ER-261 Elma Center 1.8
SE.
0700 AM Snow 2 WNW Hilton 43.30N 77.82W
03/17/2026 M3.7 Inch Monroe NY Trained Spotter
0600 AM Snow 2 NE Stafford 43.00N 78.05W
03/17/2026 M3.6 Inch Genesee NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-GN-6 Stafford 1.8 NE.
0600 AM Snow 5 W Constableville 43.58N 75.52W
03/17/2026 M3.3 Inch Lewis NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station HGHN6 Highmarket 2W.
0700 AM Snow 2 ESE Lockport 43.15N 78.65W
03/17/2026 M3.2 Inch Niagara NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station LPTN6 Lockport.
0700 AM Snow Hamburg 42.72N 78.84W
03/17/2026 M3.1 Inch Erie NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-ER-39 Hamburg 0.4 WSW.
0630 AM Snow 1 W Fairport 43.10N 77.46W
03/17/2026 M3.0 Inch Monroe NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-MR-84 Fairport 0.9 W.
0700 AM Snow 1 S Dunkirk 42.47N 79.33W
03/17/2026 M3.0 Inch Chautauqua NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station DKKN6 Dunkirk 1S.
0700 AM Snow 1 SSW Watertown 43.96N 75.92W
03/17/2026 M2.8 Inch Jefferson NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-JF-47 Watertown 0.9 SSW.
0700 AM Snow 2 E Pavillion 42.87N 77.99W
03/17/2026 M2.8 Inch Genesee NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station PVLN6 Pavilion 2.
0500 AM Snow Wellsville 42.12N 77.95W
03/17/2026 M2.7 Inch Allegany NY CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station WELN6 Wellsville.
0700 AM Snow 3 S Canandaigua 42.85N 77.29W
03/17/2026 M2.5 Inch Ontario NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-ON-27 Canandaigua 2.6 S.
0515 AM Snow 3 SE North Tonawanda 43.01N 78.83W
03/17/2026 M2.3 Inch Erie NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-ER-72 Tonawanda 3.1 NE.
0630 AM Snow Kenmore 42.96N 78.87W
03/17/2026 M2.3 Inch Erie NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-ER-59 Kenmore 0.3 ESE.
0700 AM Snow 2 W Cambria Center 43.18N 78.86W
03/17/2026 M1.8 Inch Niagara NY Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NY-NG-47 Sanborn 3.0 NNE.
&&
HitchcockNearby
Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2026Every small craft advisory in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.