Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

526 
WHUS71 KBUF 081953
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

LOZ043>045-090400-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.260109T0600Z-260110T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
253 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots
  late Friday and Friday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-090400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.260109T0300Z-260110T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
253 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25
  knots Friday and Friday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

233 
WHUS71 KBUF 090206
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
906 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

LEZ040-041-091015-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.260109T0300Z-260109T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
906 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots and
  waves 3 to 6 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds
  to 35 knots and waves 8 to 12 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST Friday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-091015-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.260109T0600Z-260109T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T2100Z-260110T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
906 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots and
  waves 4 to 7 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds
  to 35 knots and waves 7 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 1 AM to 4 PM EST 
  Friday. For the Gale Watch, from Friday afternoon through 
  Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-091015-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T1900Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
906 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 9 to 13 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-091015-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T2100Z-260110T0500Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
906 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

472 
WHUS71 KBUF 090612
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
112 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

LEZ040-041-092000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260109T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
112 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots and
  waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale Warning, southwest gales to 40
  knots and waves 8 to 12 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM this afternoon to 
  10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-092000-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260109T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T1900Z-260110T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
112 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 knots
  and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Warning, southwest gales to
  40 knots and waves 8 to 12 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM this afternoon to 
  10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-092000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260109T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T2100Z-260110T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
112 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots and
  waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Warning, southwest gales to 40
  knots and waves 7 to 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM this afternoon to 
  10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-092000-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T1900Z-260110T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
112 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest gales to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-092000-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0001.260109T2100Z-260110T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
112 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest gales to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-092000-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.260109T0900Z-260110T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
112 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

912 
WHUS71 KBUF 091751
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1251 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

LEZ040-041-100300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260109T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1251 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-100300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260109T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1251 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-100300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.260109T1800Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1251 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-100300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260110T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1251 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

038 
WHUS71 KBUF 100234
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
934 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

LEZ040-041-100600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260110T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.260110T0234Z-260110T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
934 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-100900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260110T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.260110T0234Z-260110T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
934 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-101045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260110T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.260110T0234Z-260110T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
934 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-100345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260110T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
934 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-100345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260110T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
934 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
120 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Began the stronger downslope wind gusts off the Chautauqua Ridge and
Tug Hill a bit earlier tonight. Otherwise no significant chances
made to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing multiple chances for stronger wind gusts, with
southeast downslope flow tonight off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug
Hill Plateau, then regionwide Friday on a south to southwest flow,
and again Sunday region-wide.

2) Warm airmass leading to snowpack ablation through this weekend,
with increased runoff from snowmelt and rain, though with low
chances for any river/creek flooding and continued very low chance
for any ice jam flooding.

3) Return briefly to seasonal temperatures Sunday night and into
Monday, with lake effect snow downwind of the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A series of storm systems will pass across the Great Lakes region
through this weekend. Initial southeast winds tonight could
downslope off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill to advisory level
speeds. Though there will be veering winds to southwest up through
the core of the 60 to 70 knot LLJ, the still 50 to 60 knots of flow
at the top of the inversion will be capable of surface southeast
winds downsloping to the lee of the mountains, during favorable
timing for these occurrences of downslope winds, potentially to
headline worthy gusts.

This LLJ will linger across the region Friday, with now south-
southwest winds that may also reach to advisory levels. NBM gives
highest chances to 70% probability of 40 mph gusts across the higher
terrain of WNY Friday, with an additional opportunity for winds
gusting to near advisory levels just behind a cold front passage.
Regardless, Friday will be a breezy day regionwide.

Behind a second cold front Sunday, a weaker jet of 50 knots, but
with favorable mixing within a cold air advection scheme will also
bring a windy day, with gusts into the 40 mph range downwind of both
eastern Great Lakes...and across the Lake Plain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As a southern branch of the jet stream becomes active over our
region through the weekend, with multiple systems...rainfall
combined with air temperatures in the 40s and 50s will bring
snowpack melting. The warmest day will likely be Friday where
favorable downslope areas on a south to southwest wind flow,
combined with 850 hPa temperaturewise reaching into the upper single
digits Celsius behind a warm front will promote highs well into the
50s and possibly even 60F for the Lake Plain...with temperatures
possibly reaching near 50F for the lower elevations east of Lake
Ontario.

The first system Friday will likely bring a quarter or so of
rainfall, while the second system Saturday into Saturday night will
likely bring a half inch or so of rainfall to the region. A strong
area of high pressure over Canada funneling colder air southward may
allow for freezing rain Saturday into Saturday night east of Lake
Ontario, especially the Saint Lawrence Valley with light icing
possible.

MMEFS continues to highlight river and creek rises, with the Buffalo
area creeks likely to rise to near or into action stage. The risk
for reaching minor flooding remains low as overall QPF for both
systems combined may remain under an inch which will likely not be
enough for flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind a cold front Sunday, cold air advection will return 850 hPa
temperatures to around -13C to -14C, with the coldest air forecasted
to lie across Lake Erie. Wrap around moisture behind a departing
shortwave trough will bring a brief period of lake effect snow on a
west to northwest wind flow. Saturation through the snow DGZ looks
to be around a 12 hour period with favorable lake effect snow
parameters...enough to yield several inches of snow, to potentially
headline worthy, Sunday night into Monday morning off both eastern
Great Lakes. Quick onset of drier air, and shortwave ridge of high
pressure, in a progressive flow will end the lake snows early
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of this writing our area remains shrouded under a swath of
widespread low stratus and areas of fog...in between departing low
pressure off the New England coastline and high pressure ridging
northeastward from the Upper Ohio Valley. The low clouds and fog are
courtesy of copious amounts of lingering synoptic low level moisture
and milder temperatures over the cold ground/residual snowpack...and
should largely persist as is through about 09z. The worst overall
conditions will be found across far western New York and east of
Lake Ontario...where fog will lead to visibilities occasionally
dropping to the one quarter to one half mile range...though
confidence in the timing and areal coverage of this remains low.
After 09z...some gradual improvement in ceilings/visibilities is
expected to begin across far western New York.

As we move into the daylight hours...the surface ridge axis will
slide off to our east...with increasing southerly flow and
associated low level drying spreading across our region from west to
east. This will help to scour out the lower clouds and fog in a
similar manner...with this taking place first across western New
York this morning...and this afternoon east of Lake Ontario. This
will result in flight conditions improving to VFR.

Tonight the surface high will drift east to the Atlantic
coastline...while low pressure makes its way from Iowa to the
Michigan Straits. Continued warm air advection out ahead of the low
will spread thickening/lowering high and mid-level clouds across the
area from west to east...with a few rain showers becoming possible
by late tonight...particularly across far western New York. All this
being said...flight conditions are expected to remain predominantly
VFR. Of greater concern to aviation interests will be the presence
of an increasing 55-65 knot low level jet...which will lead to low
level wind shear developing from west to east during the second half
of the night. Late in the night some of stronger winds aloft will
begin to partially mix down to the surface along the Lake Erie
shoreline and along the north slopes of the higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario...which will alleviate the LLWS in these areas but also
lead to southerly surface wind gusts potentially reaching to as high
as 40-45 knots.

Outlook...

Friday...Deterioration to IFR/MVFR in rain showers and developing
lower ceilings...and lingering LLWS Friday morning giving way to
south to southwest winds gusting to 30-40kts.

Friday night...IFR/MVFR early improving to mainly VFR/MVFR with
diminishing winds and shower chances.

Saturday...Mainly VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR in rain later in the
day.

Sunday...MVFR/local IFR in snow showers, especially east of the
lakes. Windy with southwesterly/westerly gusts to 40 knots possible.

Monday...A couple leftover snow showers possible east of the
lakes...otherwise mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A series of passing low pressure systems will bring elevated winds
and waves to the eastern Great Lakes the end of this week and
through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Southeast winds late tonight and into Friday over Lake Erie, and
later the eastern end of Lake Ontario, may reach small craft
thresholds...though the higher waves will remain over Canadian
waters.

South to southwesterly flow Friday will bring these higher waves to
the northeast ends of the Lakes.

There will be a brief lull Friday night into Saturday before winds
increase with a second storm system for the remainder of the
weekend. Elevated southwest to westerly flow Monday will maintain
small craft conditions on the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...JJR/PP
MARINE...Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

NYZ001>006-010>012-020-090630-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

South to southwest winds Friday will become gusty, potentially to
over 40 mph, especially across the lower terrain through the day, and
then behind a cold front Friday afternoon.

A strong cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday
night. Wind gusts may exceed 40 mph late Saturday night through
Sunday as colder air pours back into the eastern Great Lakes behind
the cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-090630-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

South to southeast downslope winds will develop later tonight and
continue through early Friday morning. Gusts may reach or exceed 40
mph, especially along the Lake Erie shore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

South to southwest winds Friday will become gusty, potentially to
over 40 mph, especially across the lower terrain through the day, and
then behind a cold front Friday afternoon.

A strong cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday
night. Wind gusts may exceed 40 mph late Saturday night through
Sunday as colder air pours back into the eastern Great Lakes behind
the cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-021-090630-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-090630-
Jefferson-Lewis-
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

South to southeast downslope winds will develop late tonight and
continue through early Friday morning. Gusts may reach or exceed 40
mph, especially on the northwest face of the Tug Hill.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

South to southwest winds Friday will become gusty, potentially to
over 40 mph, especially across the lower terrain through the day, and
then behind a cold front Friday afternoon.

A strong cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday
night. Wind gusts may exceed 40 mph late Saturday night through
Sunday as colder air pours back into the eastern Great Lakes behind
the cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-090630-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gale force winds are possible late Saturday night through Sunday
along and behind a strong cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-090630-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-090630-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gale force winds are possible late Saturday night through Sunday
along and behind a strong cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-090630-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
118 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf