Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Buffalo, NY

589 
WWUS51 KBUF 271847
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NYC075-271915-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-260827T1915Z/
Oswego NY-
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTY...

At 246 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bridgeport, or
13 miles northwest of Oneida, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles and boats is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland and Lakeport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Oneida Lake, get away from the water and move indoors 
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles 
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close 
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not 
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4315 7588 4316 7592 4317 7593 4317 7595
      4318 7596 4318 7598 4332 7587 4331 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 222DEG 29KT 4316 7589 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Brothers

612 
WWUS51 KBUF 271858
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
258 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NYC075-271907-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-260827T1915Z/
Oswego NY-
258 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4315 7588 4316 7592 4317 7593 4317 7595
      4318 7596 4318 7598 4332 7587 4331 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 223DEG 34KT 4324 7579 

$$

Brothers

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
619 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added some slight chance to low chance POPS for tonight through
Friday morning to account for a weak secondary front and modest lake
enhancement.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will cross the region today, producing several
rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms with uneven coverage.

2) A weak secondary cold front may produce a few scattered light
showers overnight through Friday morning.

3) Dry weather will return Friday afternoon and last through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A cold front will cross the region today, producing
several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms with uneven
coverage.

A broad mid/upper level trough will remain in place across eastern
Canada and the adjacent US portion of the Great Lakes today. A mid
level shortwave and associated pre-frontal surface trough will cross
Western NY this morning before reaching the eastern Lake Ontario
region midday into the afternoon. Large scale ascent and moisture
convergence associated with these features will provide focus for an
area of showers and a few scattered thunderstorms crossing Western
NY through mid morning before reaching the eastern Lake Ontario
region midday into the afternoon.

Coverage of thunder will be sparse this morning across Western NY
given the lack of instability. Expect coverage and intensity of
thunder to increase midday through the afternoon east of Lake
Ontario as the pre-frontal trough encounters increasing diurnal
instability. Surface temperatures in the lower 80s and dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of around 1000J/kg
this afternoon across Central NY, although forecast soundings
suggest a rather tall/skinny CAPE profile. Modest to borderline
moderate shear profiles will support the potential for a few
multicell clusters and short bowing segments across the eastern Lake
Ontario region from midday into the afternoon with a low end risk of
a few severe thunderstorms. The main risk will be isolated strong
wind gusts and brief heavy downpours.

A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon behind the pre-frontal trough across Western NY along lake
breeze boundaries, mainly from the Southern Tier into the Finger
Lakes and in a narrow strip from the Niagara River to Orleans
County. Meanwhile, increasing southwest flow will allow a stable
lake shadow to expand from Buffalo ENE to Rochester this afternoon,
reducing the chance of additional convection along that corridor.

Any remaining scattered showers and thunderstorms will quickly end
early this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes and forcing
moves east of the area.

Key Message 2...A weak secondary cold front may produce a few
scattered light showers overnight through Friday morning.

A weak secondary cold front will move southeast across the eastern
Great Lakes overnight through early Friday morning. Gradually
cooling temperatures aloft will allow some modest lake enhancement
to develop briefly along and just behind the cold front, which may
support a few scattered light showers southeast of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario overnight through Friday morning. Post-frontal low
level moisture will support widespread stratus Friday morning before
gradual clearing from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon.

Key Message 3...Dry weather will return Friday afternoon and last
through the weekend.

Surface high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Friday
afternoon through Saturday before drifting off the New England coast
Sunday. This feature will support a dry and very pleasant final
weekend of August. Slightly below average temperatures Friday
through Friday night will give way to a warming trend over the
weekend, with above average temperatures arriving by Sunday.

A tightening thermal gradient and moisture convergence may support a
few showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon from the upper Great
Lakes to eastern Ontario, but most model and ensemble guidance
suggests this rain will stay mainly north of our region until Sunday
night or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough will advance east across the Great Lakes today
and combine with the passage of a pre-frontal trough at the surface
to support a few rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. The
pre-frontal trough will focus the most concentrated area of showers
and a few thunderstorms, crossing Western NY this morning before
reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region midday through the
afternoon. Coverage of thunder will remain spare this morning across
Western NY given the lack of instability, but should increase midday
through afternoon east of Lake Ontario as the pre-frontal trough
encounters increasing diurnal instability.

A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon across Western NY along lake breeze boundaries, mostly
from the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes, and also in a narrow
band from near KIAG to just northwest of KROC. Any of the heavier
showers or thunderstorms today will bring brief/local VSBY and CIG
restrictions, otherwise VFR will prevail between the showers.

The last of the scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit the
eastern Lake Ontario region early this evening. Overnight, a
secondary cold front will move southeast across the area and combine
with modest lake enhancement to support a few widely scattered light
showers late tonight through early Friday morning. Post-frontal low
level moisture will bring widespread MVFR CIGS with higher terrain
IFR late tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Scattered light showers in the morning. Widespread MVFR
CIGS with higher terrain IFR in the morning, gradually improving to
VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday through Sunday...Dry and mainly VFR. River valley fog with
local IFR possible each late night and morning across the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Brief, localized flight restrictions possible within any heavier
shower or storm.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds in the 14-18 knot range early this morning will
gradually veer to the southwest and west today through this evening
with the passage of a pre-frontal trough. This will result in very
choppy conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today, but winds and
waves will stay just below Small Craft Advisory criteria most of the
time.

Winds will veer further to the northwest tonight through Friday
following the passage of the cold front, with a light to moderate
chop. A few scattered light showers may develop overnight through
Friday morning along the secondary cold front as the airmass becomes
just cold enough to support some lake enhancement. Forecast
soundings and the ICWR waterspout forecast suggest some potential
for a few waterspouts overnight through Friday morning over Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
158 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NYZ001>003-010>013-019-020-085-281800-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
158 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-006-008-281800-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-
158 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-007-014-021-281800-
Wayne-Jefferson-Ontario-Allegany-
158 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and a few scattered thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon. A few storms may contain gusty winds and brief, heavy
downpours with localized damaging wind gusts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-281800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
158 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance of a few waterspouts tonight on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of a few waterspouts early Friday morning on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-064-065-281800-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
158 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance of a few waterspouts tonight on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of a few waterspouts early Friday morning on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-281800-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
158 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf