Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Buffalo, NY

939 
WWUS51 KBUF 041934
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

NYC055-041944-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-260704T2000Z/
Monroe NY-
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONROE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4296 7748 4303 7748 4304 7737 4305 7737
      4332 7738 4329 7694 4282 7703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 285DEG 27KT 4310 7728 

$$

NYC069-117-042000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-260704T2000Z/
Wayne NY-Ontario NY-
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO COUNTIES...

At 334 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Palmyra, or 8
miles east of Fairport, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Canandaigua, Ontario, Newark, Williamson, Marion, Lyons, Palmyra,
Victor, Clifton Springs, and Phelps.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 43 and 45.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4296 7748 4303 7748 4304 7737 4305 7737
      4332 7738 4329 7694 4282 7703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 285DEG 27KT 4310 7728 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SGK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers likely at times this afternoon, along with scattered
thunderstorms. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

2) Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through Monday with
occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across
southern portions of the area.

3) Temperatures and humidity will continue to trend downward this
weekend following the heat wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers likely at times this afternoon, along with
scattered thunderstorms. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible
across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Scattered showers and isolated thunder will persist this afternoon
as a series of weak, convectively modulated shortwave troughs pass
overtop the weak east-west orientated frontal zone lying overhead
the northern shore of Lake Ontario, which is currently depicted on
visible satellite imagery by the cloud cover across northern New
York as well as the rain showers across Lake Ontario on radar.
Coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase this
afternoon due to diurnal destabilization, along with the approach
of additional mid-level height falls and shortwaves. The synoptic
scale forcing, combined with any mesoscale effects (i.e lake
boundaries) will support coverage of showers to develop this
afternoon. This being said, peak coverage of showers and thunder
will be this afternoon, before dropping off this evening due to the
loss of daytime heating and as the frontal boundary continues to
drop southward across the region towards the NY/PA state line. Most
of the thunder should end by sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes.

The one caveat to any shower and storm development along the
mesoscale boundaries this afternoon with be the abound of
destabilization to occur to to the blanket of clouds overhead.
However, the breaks in cloud cover (currently across the western
Southern Tier will allow the very warm and soupy airmass to
destabilize enough to support a low end risk of severe thunderstorms
this afternoon. Effective shear will be quite weak, but a few
isolated strong to severe storms are possible in the afternoon with
peak heating. The main risk will be localized strong wind gusts from
precipitation loading and collapsing cores, mainly across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The limited severe risk will quickly
diminish early this evening with the loss of diurnal instability.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through
Monday with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
across southern portions of the area.

A weak mid-level trough will gradually sharpen across the Great
Lakes Sunday into early Monday, before passing across the eastern
Great Lakes late Monday and Monday night. Meanwhile at the surface,
a weak area of low pressure will develop over Ohio Sunday, and drift
east towards the Mid-Atlantic region Monday. As such a plume of
moisture will remain across Ohio and Pennsylvania and reach up into
the Southern Tier. A much drier air mass will lie just north of the
region across Ontario and Quebec, resulting in a sharp northern edge
of clouds and rain chances.

Occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms will continue
Sunday night through Monday across the Southern Tier in close
proximity to more favorable moisture and forcing. Rain chances will
be lower north of the NY Thruway, although there is still some
uncertainty with respect to the northern edge of the rain with this
system. The North Country will be deeper into the dry air associated
with high pressure over Quebec, and have the lowest chance of rain
through the period.

As the mid-level trough lingers across the Northeast Tuesday, it
will continue to support a few scattered showers or isolated
thunderstorms mainly inland from the lakes. Mainly dry weather will
return by Wednesday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures and humidity will continue to trend
downward this weekend following the heat wave.

As the strong mid to upper level ridge flattens and drifts off the
southeast CONUS this weekend, the heat wave can be put behind us.
Despite a muggy airmass to remain overhead today, as seen by surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s, cloud cover will keep our
daytime highs today at bay and only support the lower 80s for highs.
This being said, the heat indices will peak in the mid to upper 80s.

Temperatures will return to typical mid summer values Sunday through
early next week, with dewpoints also pulling back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An east-west orientated frontal boundary across Lake Ontario into
the North Country this afternoon, will support another afternoon of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Due to the cloud cover, the best
chances for thunderstorms will lie across the Southern Tier this
afternoon, though timing of more organized shower and thunderstorms
continues to remain uncertain. A few storms may contain gusty winds,
especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. VFR/high end
MVFR (for areas close to the frontal boundary and associated
showers) will prevail most of the time, but any of the heavier
showers and storms will produce brief/local MVFR to IFR conditions.

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening, although a few scattered showers may continue overnight
especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Late tonight,
chances of low stratus and associated MVFR CIGS will increase south
of Lake Ontario as northeast flow develops behind the weak cold front
sagging south of the area. Patchy IFR may develop across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with occasional showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Greatest coverage of rain over the southern
half of the area. Brief/local IFR in thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly inland from the lakes.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with chances for showers and thunderstorms
increasing due to an approaching cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds will remain across much of the lakes through this
afternoon, resulting in minimal wave action. In the wake of a weak
frontal boundary this afternoon, winds will become northwesterly on
Lake Ontario, and then as surface high pressure builds southward
Sunday winds will predominately become northeasterly on both lakes.
Winds to close out the holiday weekend and into Monday will remain
15 knots or lower, leaving minimal waves on the Lakes, though waves
may reach 2 feet on the western waters of Lake Ontario with a longer
fetch to the northeast wind

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected from this
afternoon into the early evening hours today. Some storms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
151 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-051800-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
151 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop again today, with
the best coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon. There is chance
of
a few isolated severe thunderstorms, with locally strong wind gusts
the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>008-010-011-051800-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
151 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-051800-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
151 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop again today, with
the best coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon. There is chance
of
a few isolated strong thunderstorms, with locally strong wind gusts
and higher waves the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-051800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
151 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf