Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Buffalo, NY

346 
WWUS51 KBUF 302006
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
406 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

NYC011-117-302016-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-260630T2015Z/
Wayne NY-Cayuga NY-
406 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND CAYUGA
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central and western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4311 7649 4310 7650 4303 7650 4303 7671
      4301 7697 4308 7705 4322 7648 4315 7647
      4314 7649 4311 7647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 299DEG 19KT 4295 7666 

$$

TMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have adjusted PoPs and weather to include the threat of
thunderstorms, similar to this afternoon's set up for Wednesday
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then slowly lessening
heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then
slowly lessening heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

Building upper level ridging across, with a core of the ridge
strengthening to around 600 dm across the eastern CONUS will
continue through Thursday with the core of the ridge drifting
further east for the weekend. In its wake, a series of shortwave
troughs will dig southeastward across eastern Canada and help
flatten the ridge Friday through the holiday weekend. This being
said, 850 mb temperatures will topple out at +20C this afternoon,
and remain slightly above +20C through Thursday and possibly into
Friday. Then temperatures at 850mb will pull back into the mid to
upper teens this weekend.

In the wake of the warm frontal passage of the warm front,
temperatures this morning and early this afternoon, have warmed up
into the upper 80s and low 90s, except for the North Country where a
current bowing thunderstorm segment if passing across keeping
temperatures at bay and in the upper 70s. These temperatures coupled
with the dewpoints surging into the lower 70s, heat indices will
surge well into the mid 90s and even towards the low 100s range this
afternoon. As such, Heat Advisories remain in effect areawide this
afternoon.

Heat and humidity will continue Wednesday before reaching its peak
on Thursday, supporting daytime highs away from any lake influences
and higher terrain to surge into the lower to mid 90s for many
areas, while the climatologically warmer spots will warm up into the
upper 90s. Meanwhile, dewpoint temperatures will also climb up into
the lower to mid 70s Wednesday and linger through Thursday,
supporting dangerous and oppressive heat indices in the low to mid
100s across Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Wayne,
Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties, supporting Extreme Heat
Warnings, and upper 90s to low 100s elsewhere, continuing the Heat
Advisories elsewhere.

Gradually relief to the heat and humidity will begin Friday and
continue through the holiday weekend as the strong upper level ridge
slowly flattens and retreats southeastward. This will not only
allow for multiple shortwave troughs to ripple along the northern
periphery of the ridge, but also bring corresponding cooler
temperatures aloft. While there will be some relief to heat indices
on Friday, the 4 days of consistent heat will support Extreme Heat
Warnings to continue into Friday. While cooler temperatures will
grace the area this weekend, should note that the humidity will also
linger.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible today and Wednesday.

An MCS is in the midst of crossing southeast across the North
Country this afternoon bringing widespread damaging winds, large
hail and possibly a tornado. This bowing line segment will soon
exit the area within the next hour.

Similar to this afternoon, another cluster of storms may develop
over Canada and dive southeastward across areas southeastward of
Lake Ontario (from Niagara County to the Genesee Valley through the
North Country) Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strong instability
will again support a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms capable
of producing damaging winds and hail. This being a said, a Slight
Risk for Severe Thunderstorms exists across much of the Niagara
Frontier and east and southeastward across the Genesee Valley and
into the North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A fast moving MCV dropping NW out of Canada will track across KART
between 17Z-19Z this afternoon. Expect reductions to IFR or lower
within this complex of storms...which could also produce locally
strong wind gusts and large hail. Elsewhere...outside of the
convection mainly VFR conditions will continue across termials this
afternoon.

Tonight mainly dry weather and VFR flight conditions should tend to
prevail...though some additional showers/storms and associated
restrictions cannot be completely ruled out across the North
Country. Late tonight...some patchy MVFR stratus could form across
the interior of the Southern Tier and North Country.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Possible MVFR ceilings across the Southern Tier and
North Country early...otherwise mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday and Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
In the wake of a warm frontal passage today, modest to moderate
southwesterlies will linger through the remainder of the week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening
may produce locally higher winds and waves. The risk will be
greatest across Lake Ontario.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity are expected across western and
north central NY this week. Here are the record maximum and high
minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown.

                    6/30        7/1         7/2         7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          94(1963)    93(1963)    94(1966)    94(1949)
High Low          73(1941)    75(1901)    75(1931)    74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          96(1964)    96(1901)    99(1931)    100(1911)
High Low          72(2014)    76(1931)    76(1931*)   75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          89(1977)    92(1967)    92(1966)    91(1966)
High Low          73(2014*)   74(2014)    73(2002)    74(1973)

Average Temperatures for June 30-July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           62

Watertown
Max           78
Min           57

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NYZ001>006-013-014.
     Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ007-008-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...EAJ
CLIMATE...WFO BUF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

NYZ012-019>021-085-011730-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through Friday. Maximum
heat index values will likely reach the mid 90s to near 100 each
afternoon. Very warm and muggy nights will offer little relief from
the heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-011730-
Niagara-Orleans-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-011730-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-011730-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-013-014-011730-
Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-011730-
Oswego-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on
Wednesday, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-011730-
Jefferson-Lewis-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through Friday. Maximum
heat index values will likely reach the mid 90s to near 100 each
afternoon. Very warm and muggy nights will offer little relief from
the heat.

There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on
Wednesday, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-011730-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-011730-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-011730-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Cape Vincent            44.13N 76.34W
06/30/2026                   Jefferson          NY   Emergency Mngr

            Widespread trees and power lines down in the
            Cape Vincent area.

&&

SGK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Clayton                 44.24N 76.09W
06/30/2026                   Jefferson          NY   Emergency Mngr

            Widespread trees and power lines down in the
            Clayton area.

&&

SGK