Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Buffalo, NY

483 
WWUS51 KBUF 111738
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
138 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

NYC013-111747-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-260611T1815Z/
Chautauqua NY-
138 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 7906 4254 7906 4255 7909 4268 7878
      4245 7863 4240 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 245DEG 17KT 4246 7913 

$$

NYC009-029-111815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-260611T1815Z/
Cattaraugus NY-Erie NY-
138 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTIES...

At 137 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of 
Dunkirk and moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Springville, Gowanda, North Collins, North Boston, Concord, Collins,
Dayton, Perrysburg, Versailles, and Langford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 7906 4254 7906 4255 7909 4268 7878
      4245 7863 4240 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 245DEG 17KT 4246 7913 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Reynolds

428 
WWUS51 KBUF 111749
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
149 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

NYC009-029-111758-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-260611T1815Z/
Cattaraugus NY-Erie NY-
149 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS AND
SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 7906 4254 7906 4255 7909 4268 7878
      4245 7863 4240 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 245DEG 17KT 4248 7906 

$$

Reynolds

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
256 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe weather risk lowered today for much of western and north
central New York and across western New York Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and high humidity today and Friday.
Warmest heat index values reaching the mid 90s and allowing for
an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and high humidity today
and Friday. Warmest heat index values reaching the mid 90s and
allowing for an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

A mid level ridge will amplify over the lower Great Lakes and
Northeast through Friday. This will increase heat and humidity
across the region. 850 mb temperatures will climb to near +18/+19C
and the combination of heat and humidity will support heat index
values in the lower to mid 90s. Heat Advisories remain in place
today for portions of the Finger Lakes and the counties lining the
south shore of Lake Ontario, where confidence remains the highest
of heat indices reaching the mid 90s.

Similar conditions will be possible Friday, with heat headlines once
again a possibility for some areas. Confidence is a bit lower
as a faster arrival of a cold front may keep areas cooler.

Cooler and more comfortable weather are expected across the region
behind a cold front this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Friday evening.

A very moist airmass will remain in place today. Scattered
convection expected during the morning, with heavy downpours as the
primary impact. Impressive instability developing by afternoon will
lead to additional convection, mainly on lake breeze or convergence
boundaries inland from the lakes. However, amplifying ridging aloft
building in from the west maintaining relatively weak shear
profiles this afternoon, limiting severe potential.

A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region Friday. A very
warm, moist airmass will be in place ahead of an approaching cold
front. The combination of an increasing wind fields and a
unstable airmass will support the potential for strong/severe
thunderstorms with the primary risks being damaging winds and
large hail. Latest models have sped up timing of the arrival of
the cold front shifting the axis of greatest instability and
severe weather potential to the east. The faster arrival of the
front will greatly limit the severe threat across western New
York, with the higher risk of severe weather east of the Genesee
Valley during the afternoon and evening. Potential exists for
locally heavy rainfall, as PWAT values are expected to exceed
1.5", which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Drier air is expected to move into the region for the start of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very moist airmass will linger through the TAF period, with
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as well as lower
ceiling heights and or fog formation within the very moist
boundary layer. Fog formation is possible through 12Z. There
is low confidence that IFR or lower conditions develop at KBUF
and KART within a light southwest flow over the cool lake
waters.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning, will
increase in coverage through peak heating today. Given the very
moist atmosphere any shower or thunderstorm may contain heavy
downpours, lowering visibility for a brief time to IFR or lower.

Outlook...

Tonight through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms. Also, lower CIGS possible tonight across the
higher terrain.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance for a few
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest to west flow will remain through tonight. Wind speeds
likely remaining 15 knots or less with only the expectation of a
light chop with waves 2 feet or less.

The passage of several waves of low pressure will generate a few
thunderstorms with localized strong winds over the lakes at times
through Friday.

The passage of a cold front Friday could bring a brief uptick to
winds, but headlines are not anticipated. Drier air behind the cold
front will end the thunderstorm threat.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ001>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

NYZ007-020-120715-
Jefferson-Cattaraugus-
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-013-014-120715-
Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot and humid conditions are also possible Friday. Heat index values
may reach the mid 90s.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-120715-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-120715-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010>012-019-085-120715-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-064-065-SLZ022-024-120715-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Strong to severe wind
gusts could produce locally dangerous high waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-008-021-120715-
Oswego-Lewis-Allegany-
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-120715-
Northern Cayuga-
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
845 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Flash Flood      4 NNW Port Byron        43.09N 76.65W
06/10/2026                   Cayuga             NY   911 Call Center

            Multiple reports of flooded roads and
            rainfall reports of 2 to 3 inches.

&&

AR