Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Buffalo, NY

347 
WWUS51 KBUF 131905
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
305 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

NYC051-131914-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260513T1945Z/
Livingston NY-
305 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area.Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7757 4294 7758 4294 7763 4301 7768
      4316 7735 4299 7698 4287 7755
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 246DEG 29KT 4295 7754 

$$

NYC055-069-117-131945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260513T1945Z/
Wayne NY-Monroe NY-Ontario NY-
305 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
COUNTIES...

At 304 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Honeoye Falls,
or 11 miles southwest of Fairport, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
East Rochester, Fairport, Newark, Palmyra, Victor, Honeoye Falls,
Clifton Springs, Bloomfield, Farmington, and Mendon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 near exit 11.
 Interstate 90 between exits 43 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7757 4294 7758 4294 7763 4301 7768
      4316 7735 4299 7698 4287 7755
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 246DEG 29KT 4295 7754 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SGK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
706 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds this afternoon from
the interior Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and southern Tug Hill
regions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool weather and periods of showers will continue
today and tonight, with a line of showers and thunderstorms forming
along and just ahead of a cold front as it crosses the region this
afternoon.

2) Unsettled and very cool weather will continue Thursday through
Thursday night.

3) A notable warming trend will start Friday, then gain momentum
over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool weather and periods of showers will continue
today and tonight, with a line of showers and thunderstorms forming
along and just ahead of a cold front as it crosses the region this
afternoon.

Deepening mid and upper level trough will continue to dig from the
central Great Lakes into the lower Great Lakes region today into
tonight. In the process, the mid level circulation will close off as
the system becomes vertically stacked. This will act to slow the
systems' progression as it drifts slowly southeastward, eventually
right over NYS later tonight. The associated surface low will drift
slowly east, just to the north of Lake Ontario today, then southward
across NYS later tonight.

Showers will continue through mid to late morning ahead of a warm
front and pre-frontal trough pushing through western and
northcentral NY. Expect a brief lull in the more widespread shower
activity around midday in the wake of the the two aforementioned
features, before a line of showers and thunderstorms ignite along
and ahead of a surface cold front crossing the region this
afternoon. Expect the line of showers and storms to initially
develop early this afternoon from around the Chautauqua Ridge/Boston
Hills area extending northeast into Wyoming and Genesee counties,
then progress east through the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region,
and lastly into the eastern Lake Ontario region by the mid to late
afternoon hours. Most of these areas will just experience general
thunderstorms accompanied by brief downpours. PWAT values remain
fairly modest, peaking at around 0.75" mitigating the threat of
excessive rainfall/flood threat. That said, there will be a brief
window for a few stronger storms this afternoon from the interior
Southern Tier northeast into the Finger Lakes and southern Tug Hill
regions. Some breaks in the clouds this afternoon will aid
diurnal heating, helping to boost instability/steepen low level
lapse rates with CAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range. This
combined with 30-40 knots of bulk shear may yield a few more
robust storms capable of producing isolated strong to severe
wind gusts. SPC continues with a Marginal Risk for these
aforementioned areas. Otherwise, expect a west to east drying
trend in the wake of the cold front through the afternoon into
this evening for much of the area. However, the cold front is
expected to stall out just east of the area tonight, keeping the
potential for a few shower going east of Lake Ontario through
much of the overnight. Meanwhile, as the mid level and
associated surface low slowly pivot southeast across NYS, cool
moist W to NW flow on the back side of the system will combine
with some limited lake enhancement to bring chances for showers
back in across far western NY late tonight, especially across
favored upslope areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled and very cool weather will continue
Thursday through Thursday night.

A mid level closed low will gradually move southeast across NY/PA on
Thursday. The associated surface low just north of Lake Ontario in
the morning will dissipate, giving way to secondary coastal
cyclogenesis near the New York Bight by Thursday afternoon. The
conveyor of deep moisture with this system will be well east of the
area over eastern NY and New England Thursday, leaving more shallow
wrap around moisture over the eastern Great Lakes. Cool air aloft,
steepening lapse rates, and increasing northwest upslope flow will
support a few showers at times, with the best coverage likely found
across the western Southern Tier and Lewis County.

A few showers will continue Thursday night, with the best coverage
east of Lake Ontario in closer proximity to Atlantic moisture
advecting westward around the northern periphery of the vertically
stacked low off the southern New England coast. Additional rainfall
amounts Thursday through Thursday night will be light.

The next mid level shortwave will move into northwest Ontario
province Friday, forcing the closed low off the New England coast to
accelerate eastward and out to sea. Rain chances will end from west
to east for most of the area early in the morning, although a few
showers may linger through the day east of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will be unseasonably cool Thursday, with highs only in
the low to mid 50s for lower elevations and upper 40s for higher
terrain, close to 15 degrees below average. Lows Thursday night will
drop back into the low to mid 40s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A notable warming trend will start Friday, then gain
momentum over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next week.

The very cool temperatures Thursday will give way to the start of a
warming trend by Friday as the mid level low moves away, with some
sunshine and weak warm advection beginning. Highs will recover into
the 60s and close to average by Friday afternoon.

A notable pattern change will begin across the CONUS this weekend
and mature early next week as a trough digs into the Rockies,
forcing a downstream ridge to build eastward across the central and
eastern CONUS. Persistent warm advection will bring an extended
period of above average warmth starting Saturday and lasting through
at least Tuesday. Highs over the weekend will be in the 70s, with
80s for Monday and Tuesday away from lake influences. Some of the
normally warmer locations may reach the upper 80s to lower 90s
Monday and Tuesday.

In addition to the building warmth, it will be relatively dry
through the period with just a low chance of a few spotty showers
from Saturday through Monday from passing weak shortwaves. A better
chance of showers and thunderstorms may arrive by late Tuesday or
Tuesday night as a cold front moves through the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions with areas of light showers across the
region to open the 06Z TAF period. Strong low level jet overhead
will bring the possibility for LLWS across the western NY TAF sites
through 12Z-13Z before the stronger winds off the deck depart east
and diurnal mixing commences. A warm front and pre-frontal trough
associated with a slow-moving low pressure system over the central
Great Lakes will continue to produce areas of showers through mid to
late morning, with pockets of MVFR VSBY with any heavier showers.
CIGS are expected to lower into the low VFR range through around
daybreak, before further deteriorating to MVFR for much of the day.
However, behind the warm front and pre-frontal trough, a period of
drying and subsidence may allow for some improvement in CIGS to low-
end VFR/scattering out during the midday/early afternoon hours.
Following the brief lull in the showers around midday, a line of
showers and thunderstorms develops along and ahead of the systems'
cold front as it presses east across the area this afternoon. The
main threat for thunderstorms is expected to remain south and east
of our western NY TAF sites, however a storm or two will possible
east of Lake Ontario (KART) later this afternoon. A few stronger
storms with the capability of producing isolated stronger wind gusts
will be possible from the interior Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes
region. Otherwise, a west to east drying trend is expected in the
wake of cold frontal passage through the afternoon into this
evening.

Although mainly dry weather is expected for the bulk of the
area tonight (exceptions east of Lake Ontario and southwestern
NYS late tonight), an increasingly cool/moist NW flow will
bring deteriorating flight conditions with IFR/LIFR CIGS
expected to develop across the higher terrain by late this
evening into the early overnight. IFR CIGS are then expected to
expand across all of areas west of the Genesee Valley by late
tonight, with MVFR CIGS expected across the remainder of the
area.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Areas of IFR/MVFR with
showers likely at times.

Friday...A chance of showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario. Areas of
MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over the central Great Lakes this morning will
drift slowly east to just north of Lake Ontario by late today.
Southeast winds will ramp up ahead of this system through the
morning, bringing a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to
the east end of Lake Ontario through mid afternoon.

Winds will veer southwesterly and increase later this morning
through this afternoon, bringing period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions on Lake Erie, and a moderate chop across the western
and central portions of Lake Ontario. Pressure gradient will
weaken over the lower Great Lakes Thursday and Friday, with
winds expected to be 10 knots or less with no more than some
light chop at times.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ045.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

NYZ004>006-013-014-020-021-141830-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
218 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will continue as it
pushes east across the region this afternoon. A few storms will have
the potential to produce isolated strong to possibly severe wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-007-008-010>012-019-085-141830-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
218 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-141830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
218 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf