Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Buffalo, NY

090 
WWUS51 KBUF 092358
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
758 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

NYC003-029-037-063-073-121-100007-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-260510T0000Z/
Wyoming NY-Erie NY-Niagara NY-Orleans NY-Allegany NY-Genesee NY-
758 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN ERIE...
EASTERN NIAGARA...ORLEANS...NORTH CENTRAL ALLEGANY AND GENESEE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM EDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
western New York.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
eastern Wyoming and Genesee counties until 845 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 7881 4340 7848 4339 7781 4329 7750
      4323 7755 4331 7775 4331 7776 4332 7771
      4334 7776 4336 7799 4335 7799 4314 7800
      4313 7791 4304 7795 4300 7791 4267 7795
      4258 7805 4253 7804 4252 7785 4249 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 275DEG 32KT 4333 7843 4271 7870 

$$

JJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal Risk for Severe Weather expanded eastward into the Finger
Lakes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers return this afternoon and evening with a few storms that
may be capable of producing gusty winds and hail.

2) Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with frost
potential Sunday and Monday night.

3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week with periods
of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers return this afternoon and evening with a few
storms that may be capable of producing gusty winds and hail.

A surface low centered over the UP, will continue to progress
northeast into Ontario this afternoon, dragging its attendant cold
front across Michigan and eventually into New York State tonight.
Ahead of the cold front, there is a line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms currently crossing Michigan State, where this line of
activity will spread across New York State this afternoon.

While it has taken most of the morning to begin to clear out across
western New York, from the initial passing shortwave trough and low
clouds cover, the few hours of clear skies during peak diurnal
heating will allow for mid-level lapse rates to steepen enough to
support a fair amount of instability (SBCAPE values of around 500
J/kg). This combined with around 30 knots of bulk shear should
support any strong storms to become severe, and produce gusty winds
and some hail. As this line of storms enters the Finger Lakes region
and encounters a less favorable environment, due to the limited time
of sunshine today from the abundance of cloud cover the line of
storms will quickly weaken. This all being said, SPC has expanded
the Marginal Risk for Severe Weather eastward into the Finger Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through
Tuesday with frost potential Monday night.

A longwave troughing pattern will remain overhead across the Great
Lakes and into New England Sunday through Tuesday supporting a cool
airmass to linger across the region, resulting in daily high
temperatures to average around 10 degrees below average through the
start of the week. Clear skies and light winds each night (Sunday
and Monday) will support radiational cooling and result in
temperatures to plummet into the 30s supporting the threat for frost
and freeze conditions. Frost will likely form away from the
lakeshores, with freeze conditions possible in the colder Southern
Tier valleys and across Lewis County. Please note the remainder of
the forecast area enters their growing seasons on May 11th.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week
with periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

A potent shortwave trough will dive and rotate through the longwave
trough by Wednesday, likely evolving into a mid-level closed low
settling in across the Great Lakes by the middle of the week. This
being said, chances for rain will increase from west to east late
Tuesday night through Wednesday as this system nears. Chances for
precipitation will continue into the end of the week as the trough
and closed low slowly departs east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet conditions begin the 18Z TAF period, but a cold front with
storms upon it will be bearing down on our region.

Instability is marginal, though will include thunder within a PROB30
for a 3 to 4 hour period for the western 4 TAF sites as several
broken line segments of convection are expected to reach far WNY
around 23Z, and propagate eastward. Flight conditions are expected
to lower to IFR/MVFR in heavier convection. A later arrival and
limited instability, will likely taper off any thunder by time the
line of convection reaches KART.

Any thunderstorm may bring locally higher wind gusts to the
airfields this evening.

Behind the line of storms, and with a shortwave passage, light
showers, generally with VFR visibilities, but MVFR ceiling heights
will pass across our region through the mid-overnight hours. All
together these showers will exit east of KART by 12Z.

Behind the cold front winds will veer to west to northwest late
tonight...though within a light surface pressure gradient field lake
breeze circulations will develop late in the period with SW winds
northeast of the Lakes.

By the final hours of the TAF cycle a fairly substantial amount of
cumulus clouds are expected to be bubbling up...with skies SCT -
BKN...but VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with showers ending
through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest flow will continue to strengthen this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in choppy conditions
on the lakes this evening. Additionally, with the passing of the
cold front, expect a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms to
start to cross the lakes at 21Z into the evening hours. The cold
front will work from west to east tonight supporting continued
choppy conditions through Sunday, with potential for low end small
craft advisory levels on the east end of Lake Ontario Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
544 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

NYZ005>008-102145-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
544 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-102145-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
544 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ030-043>045-063>065-SLZ022-024-102145-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
544 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ042-062-102145-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
544 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-014-021-102145-
Wayne-Ontario-Allegany-
544 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>013-019-020-085-102145-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
544 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf