Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Buffalo, NY

238 
WWUS51 KBUF 141555
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1155 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

NYC045-049-141605-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-260414T1600Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-
1155 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND
CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 7576 4394 7570 4411 7519 4410 7517
      4369 7512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1555Z 258DEG 43KT 4387 7497 

$$

Welch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
514 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the
week.

2) Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy
rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through much of the week.

Surface low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes this
morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley by early this evening. A period
of warm advection and moisture transport will cross the eastern
Great Lakes this morning ahead of the low, enhanced on the nose of a
40-50 knot low level jet in the warm sector of the passing low.
Isentropic upglide and convergence near the nose of the low level
jet will likely support an area of showers and scattered
thunderstorms moving northeast across the area this morning.

A second line of convection may develop along the weak cold front
trailing the low, which will cross the eastern Great Lakes from late
morning through late afternoon. Convergence from the passing weak
front may combine with convergence along the southern edge of
enhanced flow off Lake Erie from the Southern Tier into the Finger
Lakes and Central NY, where convection is most likely this
afternoon. A gusty southwest wind off the cold Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario waters will likely reduce the chance of afternoon storms on
the lake plains.

Most of the showers and scattered thunderstorms will end early this
evening with the exit of the weak cold front and loss of diurnal
instability. This will leave mainly dry conditions through the first
half of the night. Late tonight, a convectively augmented shortwave
will move out of lower Michigan and across southern Ontario,
approaching Western NY before daybreak with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms from west to east during the pre-dawn
hours. This cluster of thunderstorms, and the potential for
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, will continue
through Wednesday across the region.

Additional showers and sub-severe thunderstorms are likely to
continue crossing into WNY and over to the North Country through the
remainder of Wednesday night. A deeper, positively tilted mid-level
shortwave moving into the Great Lakes from the Midwest will then
cause the stalled boundary to briefly lift north of the region with
a drying trend south of Lake Ontario as temps remain warm. The
surface low attendant to the shortwave will then push a cold front
through the forecast area sometime between Thursday and Thursday
night with yet another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms.
Some mid to long range guidance suggests a secondary sfc wave
developing along the boundary which could slow its progression.
Uncertainty in this solution leads to PoPs >30% being maintained
through Friday, though temps should still cool several degrees
compared to the midweek timeframe.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms and
locally heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday.

Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross the eastern
Great Lakes today through Wednesday, with a few of these rounds
potentially bringing a risk of isolated strong wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall.

The first round of convection in the warm advection regime this
morning is not likely to become severe, with an initially stable
boundary layer keeping instability rooted above the surface and
keeping most of the stronger winds aloft. Thunderstorms will produce
brief heavy downpours today through tonight with PWAT values
reaching or exceeding 1.25", but strong flow and fast storm motions
will limit the flood risk unless training convection occurs.

A weak cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes from late
morning through the afternoon today. Surface temperatures climbing
into the 70s and surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 50s
will support weak to moderate surface based instability by early
afternoon. Strong flow in the 2K to 10K foot layer with largely
unidirectional shear profiles will support the risk of isolated
strong wind gusts in any stronger storms. Thunderstorms are most
probable from late morning through the afternoon from the Southern
Tier into the Finger Lakes and Central NY along the southern edge of
enhanced flow over and northeast of the lakes. Stable lake shadows
will expand northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in the
afternoon, reducing chances for convection over the lake plains.

Any convection that develops this afternoon will end by early
evening as the weak cold front exits and the boundary layer
stabilizes. A convectively augmented shortwave will move across
lower Michigan and southern Ontario overnight, approaching Western
NY towards daybreak Wednesday. Forcing and persistent convergence
along and east-west frontal zone may allow a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms to persist overnight, with these storms moving into
Western NY during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. A few of these
storms may also bring a risk of locally strong wind gusts,
particularly if bowing segments are able to persist through the
overnight hours.

Wednesday, a decaying MCS in the vicinity of the Finger Lakes or
North Country around daybreak will likely shuffle east and out of
the forecast area by mid-morning. In its wake, the eastern Great
Lakes will remain within the warm sector of a nearby stalled frontal
boundary, with a short break in the shower activity expected. This
should allow the environment to recover to some extent, especially
if a few breaks in the cloud cover emerge. Signals from the short to
mid-range guidance on convective evolution remain messy with the 18z
REFS advertising a 30-65% chance for SBCAPE values >1000J/kg south
of I-90 and west of the Finger Lakes, highest across southwestern
NY. Steepening lapse rates and strong 0-6km bulk shear values around
45kts overtop the stalled boundary may cause a few strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop as the next convective wave tracks into WNY
from southern Michigan in the afternoon and evening. At this
juncture the primary threat appears to be damaging wind gusts and
small to marginally severe hail, though given potentially strong
(>20kts) 0-1km shear profiles, cannot completely rule out an
isolated tornado. The severe risk appears generally lower north of
I-90 and in the North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Areas of fog and low stratus will continue early this morning
east of Lake Ontario with IFR/LIFR conditions.

Surface low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes this
morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley by this evening. An area of
showers and a few thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes
from southwest to northeast this morning, with the greatest coverage
likely to be across the northern portion of the area. A few more
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
early evening with daytime heating, mainly from the Southern Tier to
the Finger Lakes, Central NY, and Tug Hill region. Any of the
showers and storms today will produce brief VSBY/CIG restrictions.
Southwest winds off the cold lake waters will reduce the chance of
afternoon and evening convection northeast of Lake Erie.

A variety of CIGS will continue today through tonight. MVFR/IFR CIGS
will occur at times over and downwind of the lakes with high
dewpoints over the cold water supporting a marine layer. Lower CIGS
will also be found in areas of organized showers and across higher
terrain at times.

A strong low level jet will remain in place today. This will
initially support some low level wind shear early this morning, then
gusty winds from mid morning through the afternoon. Expect gusts in
the 20-30 knot range in most areas, and up to 35 knots northeast of
Lake Erie including KBUF, KIAG, and KROC.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR at
times. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers later in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase again today as a weak cold front
crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The cold lake waters will tend
to stabilize the boundary layer over the lakes, with stronger
winds focusing on land. The most likely areas to see a period of
Small Craft Advisory worthy winds today will be the Niagara
River and the western end of Lake Ontario.

Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross the
lower Great Lakes today through Thursday. A few storms may
produce locally higher winds and waves along with lightning
strikes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM
         EDT this evening for LOZ030-042.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-150630-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
today through tonight. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds,
with a few isolated severe thunderstorms possible. The best chance of
a few severe thunderstorms will be late morning through late
afternoon, and again late tonight. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1
out of 5) with the primary risk being localized damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross
the region Wednesday through Thursday. Some of these storms may
produce gusty winds, with a few isolated severe thunderstorms
possible. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe
thunderstorms Wednesday, mainly across the Southern Tier.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-150630-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
today through tonight. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds
and locally higher waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday through Thursday. Some of these storms may produce gusty
winds and locally higher waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock