Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Buffalo, NY

820 
WWUS51 KBUF 131745
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
145 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

NYC029-037-063-073-131815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-260913T1815Z/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-Orleans NY-Genesee NY-
145 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE...SOUTHERN NIAGARA...SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS AND
NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 145 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oakfield, or 
near Medina, moving east at 35 mph. Other severe storms were located 
near North Tonawanda and Lockport, also moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
North Tonawanda, Lockport, Batavia, Tonawanda, Amherst, Medina,
Albion, Grand Island, Pendleton, and Pembroke.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 48 and 48A.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4313 7894 4321 7870 4327 7813 4297 7811
      4299 7901 4300 7901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 269DEG 29KT 4313 7835 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Jaszka

227 
WWUS51 KBUF 131756
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

NYC029-063-131806-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-260913T1815Z/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-
156 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN
NIAGARA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has 
weakened. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 7841 4321 7841 4324 7813 4305 7812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 269DEG 28KT 4313 7824 

$$

NYC037-073-131815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-260913T1815Z/
Orleans NY-Genesee NY-
156 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS AND NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 156 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oakfield, or 8
miles south of Albion, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Oakfield, Shelby, Alabama, Elba, Barre Center, and Millville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 7841 4321 7841 4324 7813 4305 7812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 269DEG 28KT 4313 7824 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Jaszka

592 
WWUS51 KBUF 131809
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
209 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

NYC037-073-131819-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-260913T1815Z/
Orleans NY-Genesee NY-
209 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS AND
NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM EDT...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has 
weakened. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 7841 4321 7841 4324 7813 4305 7812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 260DEG 43KT 4315 7806 

$$

Jaszka

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and humid conditions will continue today, with showers
and scattered thunderstorms through this evening.

2) Brief cooldown Monday through early Tuesday morning, then
trending warmer and unsettled through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and humid conditions will continue today,
with showers and scattered thunderstorms through this evening.

GOES water vapor imagery shows a southern stream shortwave trough
across Pennsylvania early this morning. An axis of PWATS over 1.5
inches within a region of strong moisture transport has moved
east and so has the steady showers. A very moist airmass will
remain across the forecast area, with dewpoints remain in the
mid to upper 60s. Patchy fog and stratus are expected through
daybreak.

A surface trough is expected to move across the region this morning,
and a few showers can't be ruled out due to weak low-level
convergence. A strong northern stream trough will move into the
Great Lakes region today with an associated cold front approaching
the forecast area before passing through this evening. Instability
will develop across most of the region today. A southwest wind will
likely shadow areas downwind of the Lakes, keeping conditions mostly
dry there. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and inland from lakebreeze. Forecast soundings
suggest increasing mid-level winds and steepening mid-level lapse
rates ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards.
The main area of concern is the inland areas of the western Southern
Tier extending to the Finger Lakes region. Most showers and
thunderstorms will be progressive, though brief heavy downpours
are possible. Some HREF members show a line of heavy showers
and thunderstorms developing across the Niagara Pennsiula to the
Niagara Frontier this afternoon. A narrow region of localized
heavy rain and an isolated severe thunderstorm are possible.

The cold front and the leading edge of the trough will move across
the region this evening. A ribbon of mid-level moisture will
maintain chances for showers. Cold air advection and drier air will
filter into the region tonight, with 850mb temperatures tumbling
through Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Brief cooldown Monday through early Tuesday morning,
then trending warmer and unsettled through the middle of the week.

Drier and much cooler weather will settle across the region Monday
through Monday night. Northwest flow and 850mb temperatures
bottoming out to as low as +3C will result in below normal
temperatures. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper
60s, to the lower 60s across the higher terrain. Surface high
pressure will move across the region Monday night. Temperatures will
fall into the 40s, with the potential for locations across the
Southern Tier valleys and Tug Hill region to reach the upper 30s.
Patchy frost can't be ruled out across portions of Lewis county
Monday night.

An upper level ridge will build briefly across the Great Lakes
region Monday night through Tuesday before settling south of the
region through mid-week. Warmer weather will return to the region as
a frontal boundary with increasing moisture stalls near the forecast
area. This may bring periods of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread low clouds will continue this morning with ceilings
varying between MVFR/IFR across the lower elevations to IFR/LIFR
across the higher terrain this morning.

A warm and humid airmass will remain across the region today.
Lower ceilings will linger through the morning, before improving
to VFR this afternoon. Another round of showers and scattered
thunderstorms is expected along and inland from lakebreezes this
afternoon through this evening. Mostly dry conditions are
expected at KBUF, however upstream convection may move into the
terminal this evening. Brief downpours and MVFR to LIFR are
possible within the showers and especially thunderstorms.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from the
inland areas of the western Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes
region this afternoon. A brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to
30 to 50 knots can't be ruled out.

A cold front will move across the region tonight. MVFR/IFR
ceilings are expected as northwest flow builds into the region.
Showers are possible in the evening, with dry conditions late
tonight through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...Dry weather expected. Areas of
MVFR CIGS with lake-effect clouds Monday morning, then
improving to VFR.

Tuesday...Dry weather expected. Localized MVFR to LIFR in early
morning valley fog across the Western Southern Tier. Otherwise
VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move slowly east from Hudson Bay east across
Quebec today, with a trailing cold front crossing the lower
Great Lakes this evening. Southerly winds will gradually veer
to the southwest and west through the day.

Northwest winds will increase in the wake of the cold front late
tonight through Monday, likely bringing Small Craft Advisory
conditions to portions of the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday
         for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
         Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
         Monday for LOZ045.

&&

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

NYZ007-008-140700-
Jefferson-Lewis-
253 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-140700-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
253 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
and evening. There is a Marginal Risk that a few of these storms may
be severe, with isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. The
severe weather risk is expected to remain limited in areal coverage
and scope.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>044-062>064-140700-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
253 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ045-065-140700-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
253 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-140700-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
253 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf