Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Buffalo, NY

268 
WWUS51 KBUF 021257
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
857 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

NYC029-037-063-073-021307-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-260902T1315Z/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-Orleans NY-Genesee NY-
857 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE...
SOUTHEASTERN NIAGARA...SOUTHEASTERN ORLEANS AND GENESEE COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 7757 4328 7753 4332 7735 4332 7701
      4288 7743 4288 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 270DEG 40KT 4336 7748 4309 7754 4295 7758 

$$

NYC051-055-069-117-021315-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-260902T1315Z/
Wayne NY-Livingston NY-Monroe NY-Ontario NY-
857 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM EDT
FOR WESTERN WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO COUNTIES...

At 857 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles north of Webster to near East Rochester to
Honeoye Falls, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Irondequoit, East Rochester, Webster, Fairport, Brighton,
Ontario, Penfield, Williamson, and Marion.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 44 and 45.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 7757 4328 7753 4332 7735 4332 7701
      4288 7743 4288 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 270DEG 40KT 4336 7748 4309 7754 4295 7758 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Mitchell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
658 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes made with this forecast update as current forecast
trends remain on track with current observations and model guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday.
Some storms may be severe through tonight, with the best timing late
this afternoon into the overnight hours.

2) Quieter weather, overall, expected Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Thursday. Some storms may be severe through tonight, with
the best timing late this afternoon into the overnight hours.

A potent shortwave trough across northern Ontario, Canada this
morning will fill in as it moves further east, entering the Quebec
province. Meanwhile at the surface, a lingering synoptic from  will
continue to remain rather stationary across the region today, lying
between the southern shores of Lake Ontario and the northern shore
of Lake Erie. As the low drifts east today, expect the surface front
to gradually shift northward across Lake Ontario. Given the
placement of the front, areas south of the front are currently lying
within the warm sector of the surface low and are experiencing a
warm, soupy airmass as seen by observations at 06Z, where
temperatures range in the mid 60s to near 70, with a 2 degree spread
in temperatures and dewpoints.

A cold front is progged to cross the area late today/tonight,
however ahead of the frontal passage, the aforementioned high
humidity currently in place will play a contributing factor to the
potential for heavy rainfall today and tonight.

Isolated scattered showers/thunderstorms currently across the Hudson
Bay this morning, will continue to drop east-southeastward across
the Lake Ontario and into the Genesee Valley this morning. While the
previous evening's sounding depicted quite the elevated mixed layer,
and models are depicting a downward trend, a few stronger storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging straight line wind
gusts, will be possible around daybreak and into the morning hours.

A couple more additional rounds of organized showers and
thunderstorm are expected for the remainder of the day, with
attention drawn to the late evening into the overnight hours. Deep
layer bulk shear will remain moderate to strong with some weak to
moderate CAPE (including elevated CAPE) due to moist isentropic lift
ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough axis passage, along
with moist, low-level convergence ascent along both surface trough
axes of the warm and cold fronts will support favorable
environments for low-level vertical wind shear. The greatest
coverage for showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon
and will last towards midnight, as daytime heating in the warm and
moist sector will yield moderate to strong boundary layer CAPE. This
is also when

 The greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Wednesday afternoon through early evening, when Several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy rainfall are
expected Wednesday through Wednesday night. This is when severe
storms in the form of multicells, including bow echoes, and
supercells, appear most-likely. Damaging straight-line wind gusts
and damaging hail up to golf ball-size are expected to be the main
severe convective weather hazards due to the expectation of steep
low-level lapse rates/large DCAPE and mid-level lapse rates near
7C/km contributing to sizable MUCAPE in the hail growth zone. A
tornado or two is possible since low-level winds may veer and
strengthen significantly with height, resulting in sizable surface-
based ESRH amidst favorably-low mixed layer LCL's. Localized flash
flooding is also possible where showers and storms manage to train,
which should be the case along the warm front and any outflow
boundaries oriented roughly west-to-east, which will be largely
parallel to westerly to west-northwesterly mean mid-level flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Quieter weather, overall, expected Thursday
night into Friday.

Mainly fair weather is expected Thursday night through Friday as
a surface high pressure ridge builds from northern ON and vicinity,
behind the cold front. However, northwesterly flow aloft and
embedded shortwave troughs will continue to impact our region. Moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes and low- level
convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes attendant to the
shortwaves may release weak, yet sufficient instability, including
elevated CAPE, to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms,
especially Thursday night. Temperatures and humidity levels will
drop back down to tolerable levels with lows reaching mainly the
mid 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Friday. Highs should reach
the 70's late Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A wavy stationary boundary will remain draped across western and
north-central NY through this evening, supporting a warm and humid
airmass to reside across the region. Additionally, with the front
and warm moist air overhead, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected.

Initial broken line of showers and thunderstorms are entering
Western NY this morning as of 12Z, where they are expected to
continue their southeastward track and mainly impact KIAG, KROC and
KJHW in the next couple of hours. Eventually this line will make its
way further east to impact KART by mid morning. With the line,
expect gusty winds in excess of 35knots and localized MVFR/IFR
conditions.

Another round of organized showers and thunderstorms are expected
late this afternoon and well into the evening hours. With this
activity, expect clusters of storms where gusty winds, hail, and
heavy rainfall may produce IFR or below in thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Friday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog with local IFR each
late night and early morning across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
A wavy stationary front draped across the Lakes this morning, will
remain across the region through tonight. Southwest winds up to 10
to 15 knots are expected on Lake Erie today, producing a light to
moderate chop. Winds will be lighter and more variable on Lake
Ontario due to the wavering frontal zone. A cold front will move
southeastward through the region Thursday ahead of a ridge of high
pressure building from northern Ontario and vicinity through Friday.
West to northwest winds and a light chop are expected behind the
front. Winds, mainly northwest to northeast, and waves will remain
below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the upcoming holiday
weekend as the aforementioned high pressure ridge continues to build.

There is a chance of thunderstorms at times through midweek.
Thunderstorm chances peak late this afternoon through the first half
of tonight. Some of these storms may produce strong winds, hail, and
locally higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAL/Jaszka
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
401 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-030815-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
401 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy
rainfall are expected today through tonight. Some storms may be
severe with damaging wind gusts and hail, respectively. A tornado or
two and localized flash flooding are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-030815-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
401 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy
rainfall are expected today through tonight. Some storms may be
severe with damaging wind gusts and hail, respectively. A tornado or
two and localized flash flooding are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-030815-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
401 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy
rainfall are expected Wednesday through Wednesday night. Some storms
may be severe with damaging wind gusts and hail, respectively. A
tornado or two and localized flash flooding are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-030815-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
401 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy
rainfall are expected Wednesday through Wednesday night. Some storms
may be severe with damaging wind gusts and hail, respectively. A
tornado or two and localized flash flooding are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-030815-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
401 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy
rainfall are expected Wednesday through Wednesday night. Some storms
may be severe with damaging wind gusts and hail, respectively. A
tornado or two and localized flash flooding are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
815 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Medina                  43.22N 78.39W
09/02/2026                   Orleans            NY   911 Call Center

            Lots of trees and wires downed in Medina.
            Time estimated via radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
816 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Albion                  43.25N 78.19W
09/02/2026                   Orleans            NY   911 Call Center

            Lots of trees and wires downed in Albion.
            Time estimated via radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
818 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Medina              43.19N 78.39W
09/02/2026                   Orleans            NY   911 Call Center

            Lots of trees and wires downed in Shelby.
            Time estimated via radar.

&&