Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2026
River Flood Warning 17, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this river flood warning at Apr 2, 2026, 1:11 PM EDT for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It took effect at Apr 3, 2026, 12:48 AM EDT. It was in force for 23 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 2, 2026, 1:11 PM EDT (17:11 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 3, 2026, 12:48 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT
- In force
- 23 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Black River at Watertown (ARTN6). The gauge peaked at 10.73 ft at Apr 3, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT.
- Action stage
- 8 ft
- Minor stage
- 10 ft
- Moderate stage
- 12 ft
- Major stage
- 14 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04260500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
834
WGUS41 KBUF 021711
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
111 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
...The National Weather Service in Buffalo NY has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in New York...
Black River At Watertown affecting Lewis and Jefferson Counties.
For the Black River...including Watertown...Minor flooding is
forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued late tonight by 515 AM EDT.
&&
NYC045-049-030915-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0017.260403T0448Z-260404T1049Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.260403T0448Z.260403T1800Z.260404T0448Z.NO/
111 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Black River at Watertown.
* WHEN...From late tonight to Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in
the Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 12:30 PM EDT Thursday the stage was 9.24 feet and rising.
- Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
around 11 PM tonight to a crest of 10.6 feet early tomorrow
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Saturday
morning.
- Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
10.6 feet on 12/20/2023.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
JJR3 follow-up statements
610
WGUS81 KBUF 030839
FLSBUF
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
439 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown affecting Lewis and Jefferson Counties.
For the Black River...including Watertown...Minor flooding is
forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued this afternoon by 445 PM EDT.
&&
NYC045-049-032045-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260404T1048Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.260403T0200Z.260403T1800Z.260404T0448Z.NO/
439 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Black River at Watertown.
* WHEN...Until Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in
the Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 4:15 AM EDT Friday the stage was 10.26 feet and rising.
- Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 4:15 AM EDT Friday was 10.26 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.6
feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
early Saturday morning.
- Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
10.6 feet on 12/20/2023.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
TMA676
WGUS81 KBUF 031657
FLSBUF
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1257 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown affecting Jefferson and Lewis Counties.
For the Black River...including Watertown...Minor flooding is
forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued late tonight by 330 AM EDT.
&&
NYC045-049-040730-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260404T0730Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.260403T0200Z.260403T1630Z.260404T0130Z.NO/
1257 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Black River at Watertown.
* WHEN...Until early Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in
the Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 12:45 PM EDT Friday the stage was nearly steady at 10.41
feet.
- Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 12:45 PM EDT Friday was 10.42 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
late this evening and continue falling to 8.6 feet Monday
morning.
- Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
10.1 feet on 03/29/2021.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
SJW248
WGUS81 KBUF 040359
FLSBUF
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1159 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown affecting Jefferson and Lewis Counties.
NYC045-049-040500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260404T0359Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.260403T0200Z.260403T1630Z.260404T0120Z.NO/
1159 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Black River At Watertown.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:30 PM EDT Friday the stage was 9.9 feet and falling.
- Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 8.6 feet Monday
morning.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
TMAWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 2, 6:43 AM EDT, 6 hours 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today and Friday, but additional flooding is not expected. 2) Increasing confidence in another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 6:43 AM EDT, 6 hours 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
643 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch for southern Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario
counties and the western Southern Tier has been cancelled.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today and Friday, but
additional flooding is not expected.
2) Increasing confidence in another round of rain and embedded
thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today and
Friday, but additional flooding is not expected.
Frontal boundary to our south will lift back northward as a warm
front today. Scattered showers will develop with the approach of the
front, mainly this afternoon. Marginal instability could support a
low chance of thunderstorms across western New York.
Warm front will continue to push through tonight and Friday as a
shortwave trough approaches the region. Additional showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms are possible through the period. Basin
rainfall average generally less than a quarter inch Thursday through
Friday, with any additional creek or river flooding unlikely.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing confidence in another round of rain and
embedded thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.
Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Saturday will send a
cold front through the region Saturday night. Deep plume of Gulf
moisture working northward ahead of the front will support a period
of widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. Precipitable
water values nearing 1.5 inches suggesting the potential for heavy
rain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS light northeasterly flow is found across the
region, with MVFR stratus to the south and closer to a stalled
frontal boundary, with VFR flight conditions to the north where
surface high pressure is funneling in a drier airmass.
For today the frontal boundary to our south will begin to lift
northward as a warm front. This will return rain showers to our
region and perhaps a rumble of thunder later this morning and
through the afternoon hours. More widespread MVFR ceilings will
occur with the approach of the warm front today.
As the surface warm front lifts northward across our region, winds
will become southeasterly...with this downslope flow eventually eroding
the lower clouds for KBUF/KIAG and KROC...while higher
elevations of the Southern Tier (KJHW) and east of Lake Ontario
(KART) will likely remain with the lower clouds in IFR/MVFR
range.
Tonight a few rain showers will linger across the region with lower
flight conditions in the IFR/MVFR flight range remaining near the
Southern Tier and Tug Hill region. A LLJ will strengthen overnight,
with 50 to 60 knots of flow the second half of the night. A base of
40 to 45 knots at 2K will lead to LLWS in the TAF for tonight.
Outlook...
Periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Friday through Sunday.
Occasional thunderstorms are possible through Saturday night.
Monday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Fresh to strong east-northeast winds will continue on both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through today. This will lead to a round of small
craft advisory conditions. Following the passage of a warm front,
freshening southerlies appear likely across the eastern portion of
Lake Ontario tonight, and may require a Small Craft Advisory.
Elevated southwest winds expected Friday. Otherwise, the next period
of concern will be Saturday night into Monday, as a cold front
ushers in west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed during this time period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Several creeks and rivers will remain in flood today, including
the Tonawanda Creek which has fallen to minor flood stage at
Batavia, but is forecast to peak in moderate flood stage at
Rapids. Several additional creeks and rivers will remain in
minor flood as displayed on FLWBUF/FLSBUF statements. Some of
the slower responding creeks such as Tonawanda Creek likely to
remain in flood through Friday night.
MMEFS of the NAEFS and the GEFS ensembles showing the
additional rainfall late this week and into the weekend could
impact the Black River by early next week, possibly reaching
minor flood stage at Watertown and Boonville.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-
041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
LOZ042-043.
&&
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...TMAHazardous weather outlook, Apr 2, 2:32 AM EDT, 10 hours 39 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 232 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-030645- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 232 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-030645- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 232 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 3:42 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 30 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in New York, 2026Every river flood warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.