Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2026
Lake Effect Snow Warning 3, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Mar 16, 2026, 1:54 PM EDT for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at Mar 16, 2026, 9:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 33 hr. 28 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 16, 2026, 1:54 PM EDT (17:54 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 16, 2026, 9:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 18, 2026, 6:06 AM EDT
- In force
- 33 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 1.8 | 4 N Brantingham, NY | CO-OP Observer station GFDN6 Chases Lake. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 1.8 | 4 N Brantingham, NY | CO-OP Observer station GFDN6 Chases Lake. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 3.3 | 5 W Constableville, NY | CO-OP Observer station HGHN6 Highmarket 2W. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 3.3 | 5 W Constableville, NY | CO-OP Observer station HGHN6 Highmarket 2W. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.4 | 2 Sse Palermo, NY | Cocorahs station NY-OS-16 Phoenix 7.0 NNE. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.4 | 2 Sse Palermo, NY | Cocorahs station NY-OS-16 Phoenix 7.0 NNE. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.4 | 2 Sse Palermo, NY | CO-OP Observer station PLMN6 Palermo 2SSE. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.4 | 2 Sse Palermo, NY | CO-OP Observer station PLMN6 Palermo 2SSE. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.5 | 1 Nw Constableville, NY | Cocorahs station NY-LW-3 Constableville 1.2 NW. |
| Mar 17, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.5 | 1 Nw Constableville, NY | Cocorahs station NY-LW-3 Constableville 1.2 NW. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 1 | 1 Ne Lowville, NY | CO-OP Observer station LOWN6 Lowville. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 1 | 1 Ne Lowville, NY | CO-OP Observer station LOWN6 Lowville. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 2.8 | 1 Ssw Watertown, NY | Cocorahs station NY-JF-47 Watertown 0.9 SSW. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 2.8 | 1 Ssw Watertown, NY | Cocorahs station NY-JF-47 Watertown 0.9 SSW. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 3.6 | 2 Sw Mexico, NY | CO-OP Observer station MXON6 Mexico 2SW. |
| Mar 17, 7:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4 | 3 Ene Altmar, NY | CO-OP Observer station BENN6 Bennetts Bridge. |
| Mar 17, 7:30 AM EDT | SNOW 3.1 | 4 Nw Copenhagen, NY | Cocorahs station NY-JF-59 Copenhagen 3.7 NW. |
| Mar 17, 7:30 AM EDT | SNOW 3.1 | 4 Nw Copenhagen, NY | Cocorahs station NY-JF-59 Copenhagen 3.7 NW. |
| Mar 17, 7:30 AM EDT | SNOW 3.5 | 4 Nw Constantia, NY | Cocorahs station NY-OS-45 West Monroe 1.6 NNE. |
| Mar 17, 7:30 AM EDT | SNOW 3.5 | 4 Nw Constantia, NY | Cocorahs station NY-OS-45 West Monroe 1.6 NNE. |
| Mar 17, 8:00 AM EDT | SNOW 1.6 | 1 S Oswego, NY | Cocorahs station NY-OS-46 Oswego 1.3 S. |
| Mar 17, 8:00 AM EDT | SNOW 3.5 | 2 Nw Deferiet, NY | CO-OP Observer station GTBN6 Fort Drum. |
| Mar 17, 8:00 AM EDT | SNOW 4.5 | 2 N Richland, NY | |
| Mar 17, 9:00 AM EDT | SNOW 2.4 | West Carthage, NY | Cocorahs station NY-JF-30 West Carthage 0.3 ENE. |
| Mar 17, 4:00 PM EDT | SNOW 5.5 | 2 Wsw Oswego, NY | Snowfall since 9 pm 3/16...2 inches in the last 3 hours. |
| Mar 18, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 2 | 1 Nw Constableville, NY | Cocorahs station NY-LW-3 Constableville 1.2 NW. |
| Mar 18, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 2.6 | 5 W Constableville, NY | CO-OP Observer station HGHN6 Highmarket 2W. |
| Mar 18, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 9.2 | 2 Sse Palermo, NY | CO-OP Observer station PLMN6 Palermo 2SSE. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 558 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 466 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 670 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
304 WWUS41 KBUF 161754 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 154 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 NYZ006-170715- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0023.260317T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.260317T0100Z-260318T1200Z/ Oswego- Including the cities of Oswego 154 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent bands. Winds gusting up to 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow late tonight through Tuesday. There may be a brief period of sleet and freezing rain during the transition to snow this evening, with ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch in some areas. * WHERE...Oswego County. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid drop in temperatures late this evening may produce very icy conditions on untreated roads, sidewalks, and parking lots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-170715- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0023.260317T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.260317T0100Z-260318T0000Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 154 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent bands across the Tug Hill Plateau, with 3 to 5 inches elsewhere. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow late tonight through Tuesday. There may be a brief period of sleet and freezing rain during the transition to snow this evening, with ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch in some areas. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid drop in temperatures late this evening may produce very icy conditions on untreated roads, sidewalks, and parking lots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ005-170715- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.260317T0100Z-260318T1200Z/ Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Fair Haven 154 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows over the far northern end of the county, and 3 to 5 inches elsewhere. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow late tonight through Tuesday. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga County. Greatest accumulations will be in the far northern end of the county. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid drop in temperatures late this evening may produce very icy conditions on untreated roads, sidewalks, and parking lots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ001-002-010>012-085-170715- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.260316T2200Z-260317T0800Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 154 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches, greatest across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow overnight. * WHERE...The Niagara Frontier. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday evening commute. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid drop in temperatures this evening may produce very icy conditions on untreated roads, sidewalks, and parking lots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ019-020-170715- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.260316T2200Z-260318T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean 154 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow overnight through Tuesday. * WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. The greatest accumulations will be across higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid drop in temperatures this evening may produce very icy conditions on untreated roads, sidewalks, and parking lots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ003-004-013-014-021-170715- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.260317T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville 154 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations 2 to 5 inches, greatest across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow overnight. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany Counties. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid drop in temperatures this evening may produce very icy conditions on untreated roads, sidewalks, and parking lots. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock
5 follow-up statements
625 WWUS41 KBUF 170615 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 215 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 NYZ005-006-171815- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego 215 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow today. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties. The greatest accumulation will be in the far northern end of Cayuga county and the southern half of Oswego county. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-171815- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 215 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent bands across the Tug Hill Plateau, with 2 to 5 inches elsewhere. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow today. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Additional accumulating snow of less than two inches is expected along the Saint Lawrence River and the upper Black River Valley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ001-002-010>012-085-170800- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 215 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow early this morning. * WHERE...The Niagara Frontier. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT early this morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ003-004-013-014-021-170800- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville 215 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow early this morning. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT early this morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ019-020-171815- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean 215 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. The greatest accumulations will be across higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ HSK
205 WWUS41 KBUF 170737 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 337 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 NYZ001>004-010>014-021-085-170845- /O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 337 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... The threat of accumulating snow has ended, therefore the Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire. Lingering snow showers may continue through the morning. $$ NYZ005-006-172000- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego 337 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow today. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties. The greatest accumulation will be in the far northern end of Cayuga county and the southern half of Oswego county. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-172000- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 337 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent bands across the Tug Hill Plateau, with 2 to 5 inches elsewhere. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow today. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Additional accumulating snow of less than two inches is expected along the Saint Lawrence River and the upper Black River Valley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ019-020-172000- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean 337 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. The greatest accumulations will be across higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning commute. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ HSK
837 WWUS41 KBUF 171645 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1245 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 NYZ005-006-180445- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego 1245 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow through early this evening before winds diminish after sunset. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties. The greatest accumulations will be across the Tug Hill Plateau this afternoon, then across southern Oswego and far northern Cayuga counties tonight. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and very poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ007-008-180000- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 1245 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows, greatest across the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. The greatest additional accumulations will be across the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The band of heavy lake effect snow will continue to drift south this afternoon, with improving travel conditions in Watertown and Fort Drum. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-180445- /O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.260317T2300Z-260318T1200Z/ Wayne- Including the cities of Newark 1245 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne County. Most of the lake effect snow will focus in the far northeast end of the county near Red Creek and Wolcott, with minimal accumulation elsewhere. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ019-020-180000- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean 1245 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 2 inches in the most persistent snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. The greatest additional accumulations will be across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with reduced visibility at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock
879 WWUS41 KBUF 172358 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 758 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 NYZ007-008-180100- /O.EXP.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 758 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The threat of significant lake effect snow has ended, therefore the Lake Effect Snow Warning will be allowed to expire. Snow will linger for the next hour or two in far southern Lewis County before the lake band drops south. An additional inch or two will be possible across southern Lewis County. $$ NYZ019-020-180100- /O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260318T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean 758 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The threat heavier snow has ended, therefore the Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire. Additional snow showers will be possible through the evening with additional light accumulations of an inch or less expected for Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. $$ NYZ005-006-181200- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego 758 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 9 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties. The greatest accumulations will be across southern Oswego and far northern Cayuga counties tonight. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and very poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-181200- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ Wayne- Including the cities of Newark 758 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne County. Most of the lake effect snow will focus in the far northeast end of the county near Red Creek and Wolcott, with minimal accumulation elsewhere. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ SJW
673 WWUS41 KBUF 181006 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 606 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 NYZ005-006-181115- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego 606 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... While some lighter snow showers will still affect the area early this morning, the heavier lake snows have ended and significant accumulations are no longer expected. Therefore, the Lake Effect Snow Warning has been cancelled. $$ NYZ004-181115- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260318T1200Z/ Wayne- Including the cities of Newark 606 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... While some lighter snow showers will still affect the area early this morning, significant accumulations are no longer expected. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled. $$ JJR
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Mar 16, 5:54 AM EDT, 8 hours earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Strong winds will persist through tonight. Conditions will remain gusty through Tuesday. 2) A cold front will bring showers and the potential for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain today. 3) Cold weather returns with a possible round of synoptic wet snow late today and this evening, quickly followed by developing lake effect snow later tonight through Tuesday night.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 5:54 AM EDT, 8 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
554 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind headlines for the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara
Frontier and Monroe county were extended until 8 AM Tuesday.
Snow amounts have increased across the region tonight, and east of
the Lakes through Tuesday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong winds will persist through tonight. Conditions will remain
gusty through Tuesday.
2) A cold front will bring showers and the potential for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain today.
3) Cold weather returns with a possible round of synoptic wet
snow late today and this evening, quickly followed by developing
lake effect snow later tonight through Tuesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong winds will persist through tonight.
Conditions will remain gusty through Tuesday.
A deep area of low pressure will move into Lower Michigan this
morning. Regional radar shows a region of showers and embedded
thunderstorms extending along a strong cold front from Lake Huron to
eastern Ohio. A very strong 70 knot low level jet resides in
the warm sector and across the eastern Great Lakes region this
morning. The region is in a south-southeast, warm advection set-
up with the strongest winds in the low-level jet staying aloft
for most locations. A south-southeast wind and north- northwest
facing slopes will support strong downslope gusty winds along
locations such as the Chautauqua Ridge into southern Erie county
and the northwest slopes of the Tug Hill. Observed wind gusts
over the last 12 hours include 58-64 mph at Fredonia and
Dunkirk. Strong wind gusts will continue through the early
morning hours before downslope winds weaken as low- level flow
begins to back with the approaching cold front. Outside of
favorable downslope locations, strong winds are will continue
off the hills of western New York and the Finger Lakes reaching
the foothills of the Lake Plains tonight, and wind gusts up to
50 mph are expected. Potential impacts include downed trees and
isolated power outages. High Wind Warnings may need to be
downgraded to wind advisories once the downslope winds cut off.
Wind gusts will temporarily relax ahead of the strong cold front and
as rain showers move in from the west. The cold front will swiftly
move across the region between noon and 6pm. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and pressure rises with the gradually weakening low
level jet will continue to support a period of gusty post-frontal
winds. There will likely be a immediate surge of southwest wind
gusts 35 to 45 mph behind the front, then a few hours of a lull as
cold air deepens across the region. Wind gusts will ramp back up
especially along the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara
Frontier/Monroe county tonight. Wind Headlines were extended with
high confidence that wind gusts up to 50 mph will continue northeast
of Lake Erie through tonight. Winds will likely ramp up late tonight
into Tuesday morning east of Lake Ontario, and a wind advisory may
be needed. Gusty winds will continue elsewhere tonight, however
gusts will average 30 to 40 mph.
As the cold air deepens and the boundary layer remains well-mixed,
gusty winds will continue through Tuesday. Winds aloft will slowly
weaken and wind gusts will fall below 30 mph by Tuesday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring showers and the potential
for severe thunderstorms Monday.
A strong cold front will move across the region this afternoon.
Ahead of the front, warm, moist air will be present and instability
is expected to develop through the daytime hours. Though instability
is expected to be weak, favorable shear profiles will support a
possible narrow line of strong to severe convection along the
frontal boundary during the afternoon. HREF members are in good
agreement that after 18z, a line of convection will be moving east
across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. The primary
hazard will be damaging winds, although an isolated tornado will be
possible. SPC Day 1 Outlook highlights most of the Genesee Valley
and Finger Lakes in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. Another
factor with this convection will be anafrontal rain that rides
northward along the front that is slowing down across central NY
through early evening. A moisture laden airmass with large
scale forcing will support heavy rain from the Finger Lakes
region to the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Rainfall amounts of
a half inch to three quarters of an inch are expected.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Cold weather returns with a possible round of
synoptic wet snow late today and this evening, quickly followed by
developing lake effect snow later tonight through Tuesday night.
The eastward progress of a strong cold front will slow later this
afternoon into this evening while also taking on anabatic
characteristics. The deceleration of the front will be owed to a few
reasons: The sharpening of the mid and upper trough while also
taking on a slightly negative tilt as it crosses the lower Great
Lakes region, in tandem with a developing wave of low pressure
riding north along the eastward-advancing cold front as it moves
across western and north central New York. The combination of these
factors will support a considerable boost in QPF east of the Genesee
Valley this afternoon through the first half of tonight, some of
which will fall as snow. With the front becoming increasingly
anabatic, a fair amount of the synoptic QPF will fall on the cooler
side of the front, with confidence increasing for a quick few to
possibly several inches of heavy wet snow across a good portion of
the area late today through this evening. The changeover to wet snow
may occur toward the tail end of the commute west of the Genesee
Valley, including the Buffalo Metro area, however any accumulation
through 8 PM should be less than a slushy inch.
A sharply colder airmass will quickly build into the region behind
the cold front second half of tonight through Tuesday night with
850mb temperatures plunging into the -16C to -20C range by Tuesday
morning. Lingering synoptic moisture within the large eastern CONUS
trough combined with steep low level lapse rates and lake-induced
equilibrium levels rising to 7-9 kft right through a saturated DGZ
will be supportive of lake effect snow development from later
tonight through Tuesday night. An initial W to WSW flow will send
lake bands E to ENE of the lakes later tonight through Tuesday
morning, before a subtle shift in the winds to WNW will shift the
bands more ESE of the lakes for later Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night. Confidence remains moderate to high for impactful
accumulations with the Winter weather Advisory continuing for
Jefferson and Lewis counties tonight through Tuesday with the WSW
flow regime and for Oswego County through Tuesday night to account
for the subtle WNW shift. N.Cayuga may eventually need an advisory,
but that would not start until Tuesday afternoon. While
accumulations are likely east of Lake Erie during the same time,
more uncertainty remains here. Ice coverage has decreased
significantly as seen on satellite imagery yesterday, however not
sure if models are assimilating this data in yet. Increased snow
amounts area wide, and will let oncoming shift have another look and
reassess.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A deep area of low pressure is over Lower Michigan this
morning. A very strong 70 knot low- level jet is located across
the eastern Great Lakes region. Low level wind shear and strong
wind gusts are expected through mid- morning. A strong cold
front will cross the region from west to east between 15-21z
today. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly
east of KROC as the cold front encounters increasing instability
and favorable shear profiles.
Southwest winds with gusts up to 45 knots are expected behind
the front, however there will likely be a lull in the winds after
the initial frontal passage. Cold air advection and a uniform
westerly flow will support winds to ramp up late afternoon through
tonight with the strongest gusts near the lakeshores and across the
Niagara Frontier.
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with the
frontal passage today. A dramatic drop in temperatures is expected
and rain will change over to snow from west to east across western
and north central NY through evening. Gusty winds and snow will
create blowing snow at the terminals. Snow will linger east of the
Lakes overnight.
Outlook...
Monday night...IFR in snow; remaining windy.
Tuesday and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with chances for snow east and then
southeast of both lakes. Breezy. Any IFR conditions will be
localized to within lake effect snow bands.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with lingering mainly rain showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong area of low pressure will cross the Central Great Lakes
through tonight, bringing a return to gale force winds. A strong
cold front will move across the Lakes between mid-morning through
afternoon and southwest-west winds will ramp up and persist at gale
force on the eastern end of Lake Erie through tonight and across
Lake Ontario through Tuesday.
Winds will diminish through mid-week bringing a period of light
winds and small waves.
Please note, most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>003-010>012.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ004>006-013-
014-020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for NYZ006.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ007-008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ040-041.
Gale Warning from noon today to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
LOZ042.
Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
for LOZ042-062.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
LOZ043>045.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Tuesday
for LOZ043>045-063>065.
&&
DISCUSSION...HSK/JM
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSKHazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 4:18 AM EDT, 9 hours 36 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 NYZ007-008-170830- Jefferson-Lewis- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Winter Weather Advisory. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon. A few storms may become severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006-170830- Oswego- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Winter Weather Advisory. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon. A few storms may become severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ005-170830- Northern Cayuga- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon. A few storms may become severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A burst of heavy wet snow may produce a quick few inches of accumulation this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A period of accumulating lake effect snow may produce several inches or more snow Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ019-170830- Chautauqua- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon. A few storms may become severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A burst of heavy wet snow may produce a quick few inches of accumulation this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Much colder air will move back into the region Tuesday through Tuesday night, with accumulating lake effect snow possible east of Lake Erie, especially upon hill tops. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004-013-014-020-021-170830- Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon. A few storms may become severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A burst of heavy wet snow may produce a quick few inches of accumulation this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>003-010>012-170830- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon. A few storms may become severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A burst of heavy wet snow may produce a quick 1 to 2 inches of accumulation this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ085-170830- Southern Erie- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon. A few storms may become severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A burst of heavy wet snow may produce a quick 1 to 2 inches of accumulation this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Much colder air will move back into the region Tuesday through Tuesday night, with accumulating lake effect snow possible east of Lake Erie, especially upon hill tops. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042-062-170830- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ043>045-063>065-170830- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-170830- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-170830- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-170830- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 16, 9:31 AM EDT, 4 hours 23 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
931 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1044 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NW Fredonia 42.45N 79.36W
03/15/2026 M74 MPH Chautauqua NY Mesonet
Mesonet station FW7070 Forestville.
0947 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ENE Dunkirk 42.50N 79.28W
03/15/2026 M72 MPH Chautauqua NY ASOS
ASOS station KDKK Dunkirk Airport.
1140 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SW Fredonia 42.42N 79.37W
03/15/2026 M66 MPH Chautauqua NY Mesonet
Mesonet station FRED Fredonia.
0130 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ENE Batavia 43.02N 78.14W
03/16/2026 M64 MPH Genesee NY Mesonet
Mesonet station BATA Batavia.
1100 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Irving 42.57N 79.14W
03/15/2026 M64 MPH LEZ041 NY Mesonet
Mesonet station XSSB Irving - North
Breakwater Light.
1000 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NW Dunkirk 42.49N 79.35W
03/15/2026 M62 MPH Chautauqua NY Mesonet
Mesonet station DBLN6 3 NNW Fredonia.
1035 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ESE Lime Lake-Machias 42.42N 78.42W
03/15/2026 M61 MPH Cattaraugus NY Mesonet
Mesonet station DELE Delevan.
0700 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SW Fredonia 42.42N 79.37W
03/15/2026 M60 MPH Chautauqua NY Mesonet
NYS Mesonet in Fredonia.
0815 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ENE Pultneyville 43.29N 77.15W
03/15/2026 M59 MPH Wayne NY Mesonet
Mesonet station FW8347 Pultneyville.
0637 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 W Harris Hill 42.98N 78.72W
03/16/2026 M59 MPH Erie NY Mesonet
Mesonet station FW6381 Williamsville.
0900 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNW Westfield 42.34N 79.59W
03/15/2026 M59 MPH LEZ040 NY Mesonet
Mesonet station BARN6 1 NW Westfield.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 1:54 PM EDT | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 6 more | 40 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2026Every lake effect snow warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.