Gale Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

362 
WHUS71 KBUF 171756
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1256 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

LOZ042-180200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260119T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1256 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds to 30 
  knots and waves 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  40 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Monday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Monday morning through late Tuesday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-180200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260119T1100Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260120T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1256 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 AM EST Monday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Monday morning through Tuesday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-180200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.260118T0000Z-260119T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1256 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 6 to 9 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, west 
  winds to 40 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 
  7 AM EST Monday. For the Gale Watch, from Monday morning 
  through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-180200-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1256 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$
Reynolds

724 
WHUS71 KBUF 180249
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
949 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

LOZ042-181100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260119T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
949 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds to 30 
  knots and waves 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Monday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Monday morning through late Tuesday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-181100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260119T1100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260120T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
949 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 7 to 10 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds 
  to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 AM EST Monday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Monday morning through Tuesday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-181100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260119T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
949 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  40 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Monday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Monday morning through late Tuesday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-181100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
949 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

229 
WHUS71 KBUF 180719
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

LOZ042-181530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260119T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.UP.W.0001.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
219 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds 
  to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet expected. For the Heavy 
  Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm 
  per hour or greater expected, and may rapidly accumulate on 
  vessels.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Monday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday. 
  For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM 
  EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-181530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260119T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.UP.W.0001.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
219 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds 
  to 40 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet expected. For the Heavy 
  Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm 
  per hour or greater expected, and may rapidly accumulate on 
  vessels.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Monday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday. 
  For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM 
  EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-181530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260119T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.UP.W.0001.260119T1100Z-260120T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260120T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.260119T1100Z-260120T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
219 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds 
  to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet expected. For the Heavy 
  Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm 
  per hour or greater expected, and may rapidly accumulate on 
  vessels.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 AM EST Monday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday. 
  For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, from 6 AM Monday to 7 AM 
  EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-181530-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.UP.W.0001.260119T1200Z-260121T0600Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
219 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 40 knots and waves 
  15 to 20 feet expected. For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, 
  heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater 
  expected, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
201 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Watch issued for Lake Ontario Monday through Tuesday
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of light snow across the area through this evening with
passing cold fronts.

2) Light lake effect snow and colder temperatures for Sunday behind
passing cold front.

3) An incoming arctic airmass will bring the potential for
significant lake effect snow Sunday night through Wednesday.

4) Arctic airmass will bring frigid temperatures and the potential
for dangerous wind chills next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of light snow across the area through
this evening with passing cold fronts.

Periods of mainly light snow will continue through this evening
across western and north central NY as a weak sfc low passes north
of the area. Two cold fronts associated with the sfc low will track
across the area today into this evening. The first, a weaker front
will cross during the morning, bringing a round of snow showers,
mainly for the western Southern Tier to the eastern Lake Ontario
region as moisture increases as the front shifts east. There may be
periods of moderate snowfall for the favorable upslope areas of the
Tug Hill this morning as the moisture increases ahead of the front.
Some of the warmer spots of the Genesee Valley, including the
Rochester Metro area, may mix with and/or change to rain briefly as
temperatures warm into the mid 30s today.

The second front will cross later in the afternoon and into the
evening. While this front is a bit stronger, there isn't as much
moisture as the earlier front. With this in mind, there will be the
potential for more numerous snow showers, but with lower snow
amounts and a bit quicker as the front tracks through compared to
the first frontal boundary.

Snowfall amounts today in the 3 to 6 inch range is expected for the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill, with amounts lowering in surrounding
lower elevations. As a result a Winter Weather Advisory remains in
place through this evening for areas east of Lake Ontario,
specifically the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. Areas south of
Buffalo, over the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, 1 to
3 inches will be possible. For the rest of the area, a coating to
half an inch is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light lake effect snow and colder temperatures for
Sunday behind passing cold front.

Behind the passing cold front this evening into tonight, CAA will
bring temperatures aloft to -15C by daybreak on Sunday. Combined
with the continued troughing over the region, this will lead to the
development of a weak lake effect response northeast of Lake Erie
and east-northeast of Lake Ontario tonight through Sunday. Snow is
expected to be mostly light through this period as synoptic moisture
is stripped with the passing cold front. However, with a favorable
fetch over both lakes there will be some accumulation's. Northeast of
Lake Erie, 1 to 3 inches is expected for tonight through Sunday, and
east-northeast of Lake Ontario 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected
during that same time period.

The potential for more significant lake effect snow will increase
later Sunday as moisture increases across the area. More on that in
KEY MESSAGE 3 below.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Lake effect snowbands Sunday night through Wednesday
with potential significant accumulations, blowing and drifting snow.

Lake effect snow will gradually evolve Sunday night on a southwest
flow as deepening moisture makes its way into the region ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough.

There remains uncertainty to how long the southwest flow persists,
as an arctic front will drop southward across the region Monday
morning. Any delay in this arctic front will allow for snowbands to
yield additional snowfall for the northern Niagara Frontier as well
as northern Jefferson County. This will be the area and timeframe of
greatest uncertainty for the current winter storm watch.

A more westerly flow will develop behind the frontal passage
focusing the lake snows to the east of the lakes Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. Favorable conditions will exist over the lakes as
850 mb temperatures fall to -22/-24C with lake induced
equilibrium levels going above 10K feet. Upstream lake
connections will likely enhance the lake bands leading to
potential significant snow accumulations.

Cold advection behind the arctic boundary combined with a 40 to 45
knots low level jet will result in strong winds of 35 to 45 mph
mixing to the surface. This will bring blowing and drifting
snow with very poor visibilities at times, especially within the
heart of the lake snow bands.

Backing flow with an incoming shortwave trough will lift the lake
snows back northward Wednesday. While this trough will bring light
widespread snow, it will also maintain the lake bands.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Arctic airmass will bring frigid temperatures and
the potential for dangerous wind chills next week.

An arctic airmass will spread into the region early next week. Wind
chills will be dangerously cold Monday night and drop to 10 below to
20 below zero. Winds chills remain dangerously cold Tuesday and
Tuesday night from zero to 15 below.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A pair of cold fronts associated with a passing sfc low to the north
will bring the potential for periods of light snow showers through
most of the TAF period. Reductions to both VSBY and CIGs will be
possible through the day today, especially in steadier snow showers
and brief moderate snow southeast of Lake Ontario. Outside of the
snow showers, expect mainly lower end VFR and higher end MVFR CIGs
early this morning, with lowering to mainly MVFR mid morning and
continuing through the day. IFR CIGs & VSBY will be possible at
times, especially over the higher terrain and in any potential brief
heavier snow showers.

CIGs will improve during the second half of the night to mainly VFR
behind a passing cold front, except for northeast of the lakes where
lake effect snow is expected to develop.

Outlook...

Sunday...Limited lake effect snow showers and IFR/MVFR northeast of
the lakes...with mainly VFR elsewhere.

Monday...Windy with bands of lake effect snow and attendant IFR/LIFR
conditions northeast of the lakes intensifying and shifting
southward to areas east of the lakes. Otherwise MVFR/VFR with brief
IFR/MVFR possible in passing snow showers.

Monday night through Tuesday...Heavy lake effect snow possible east
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with IFR/LIFR in bands. MVFR/brief IFR
outside of lake effect areas in a few light snow showers.

Wednesday...Widespread snow possible. IFR or below at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A prolonged period of elevated winds and waves will continue on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario through much of next week.

Winds will ramp up again through tonight as the next low pressure
system moves through the Great Lakes. This will result in Small
Craft Advisory conditions becoming increasingly widespread across
the Lower Lakes region through tonight...with such conditions
expected to remain in place through Sunday.

Looking ahead, a potential stronger system and passage of an arctic
cold front may bring gales on the Lakes late Monday through early
Tuesday along with areas of heavy freezing spray.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019-020-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ042.
         Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Tuesday night
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

DISCUSSION...SW/TMA
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...HSK/JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
206 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-180715-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
206 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong winds combined with a very cold airmass will produce
dangerously cold wind chills Monday night through Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-180715-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Southern Erie-
206 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Strong winds combined with a very cold airmass will produce
dangerously cold wind chills Monday night through Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-180715-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
206 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Strong winds combined with a very cold airmass will produce
dangerously cold wind chills Monday night through Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-180715-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
206 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Gale force winds and heavy freezing spray are possible Monday
through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-180715-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
206 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

Heavy freezing spray is possible Monday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-180715-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
206 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-180715-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
206 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf