Frost Advisory 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

477 
WWUS71 KBUF 020619
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

NYZ019-021300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260502T1300Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the cities of Jamestown
219 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures around freezing.

* WHERE...Chautauqua County.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes 
they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those 
that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover 
above-ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ001>006-010>014-085-021300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260502T1300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Orchard Park, and Springville
219 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the lower to mid 30s will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, 
  Oswego, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left 
  unprotected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

JJR

933 
WWUS71 KBUF 021256
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
856 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

NYZ019-021400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260502T1300Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the cities of Jamestown
856 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

The threat of freezing temperatures has ended, therefore the Freeze 
Warning will be allowed to expire.

$$

NYZ001>006-010>014-085-021400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260502T1300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Orchard Park, and Springville
856 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

The threat of frost has ended, therefore the Frost Advisory will be 
allowed to expire.

$$

SJW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
632 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather through the start of the weekend.

2) Potential for additional frost or freeze headlines tonight and
Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather through the start of the weekend.

An upper level low will remain across southeastern Canada,
supporting a general troughing pattern across the Great Lakes into
the start of the weekend. With the troughing pattern overhead,
a few shortwave troughs will ripple through, maintaining
northwest flow across the region. A pool of cold air aloft,
combined with diurnal heating will support isolated to scattered
showers today and Saturday. The best coverage of showers will
be this afternoon along and south of the NYS Thruway as a
decaying cold front crosses. Colder air behind the front may
support a mix with some graupel/snow Saturday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for additional frost or freeze headlines
tonight and Saturday night.

Upper level low parked over southeastern Canada, will support a
general troughing pattern across the eastern Great Lakes through the
weekend. Cold advection and northwest flow will drop temperatures
into the 30s tonight with some 20s across the hilltops. Saturday
night looks to be the coldest night with less potential for cloud
cover. NBM probabilities showing 60-90% of low temperatures less
than 33F. Frost or freeze headlines will likely be needed for both
tonight and Saturday night across much of western New York and into
the Finger Lakes where the growing season started May 1.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As we push through today...a shortwave disturbance and
attendant weak surface low over southern Lower Michigan and the
Ohio Valley will ripple eastward and across NY/PA. These
features will bring lowering ceilings to our region...along with
a period of light showers to areas mainly along and south of a
rough KBUF-KGVQ-KROC axis. Comparing the latest cloud base
guidance to current upstream conditions in the vicinity of this
wave...it appears that some of the guidance for today may be too
pessimistic for areas south of Lake Ontario...though still
expect at least a period of IFR ceilings to cross the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier/far interior Finger Lakes
(including KJHW). Further north expect ceilings to fall to low
VFR/high-end MVFR from KBUF over to KROC...with points north of
this (including KIAG) more likely to remain VFR. East of Lake
Ontario... KART should remain dry through the day with just some
mid-level VFR ceilings developing late.

Tonight the shortwave and surface wave will slide off to our east
during the evening. In the process these may bring some scattered
light showers to the North Country...however flight conditions there
should remain largely VFR. Further west across western New York the
departure of these features will allow leftover scattered showers to
taper off...with drying/subsidence in their wake allowing for any
MVFR ceilings to improve back to VFR across the lower elevations...
and IFR ceilings across the higher terrain to improve to a mix of
MVFR/VFR.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain showers at
times. Some wet snowflakes may mix in across the higher terrain
early Saturday.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm.

Monday night and Tuesday...Showers with areas of MVFR becoming more
likely...with a couple isolated thunderstorms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the lower Great Lakes will remain generally quiet
through the weekend. Winds will predominately be out of the west to
northwest at speeds of 15 knots or less. High pressure departing
the region by early next week will cause winds to turn southwest
and increase to near 20 knots at times Monday through Tuesday,
perhaps peaking as high as 25 knots Monday night. Choppy conditions
will develop during this period with small craft headlines
possibly needed for at least a portion of this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Our very wet spring continued through the month of April...with both
Buffalo and Watertown posting Aprils that were among the top 10
wettest on record. The monthly precipitation totals for our three
climate sites were as follows:

Buffalo - 5.58" (6th wettest on record)
Rochester - 4.08" (tied for 14th wettest on record)
Watertown - 5.16" (5th wettest on record)

Coupled with the extremely wet March...the above resulted in
combined March-April precipitation totals that were either the
wettest or 2nd wettest on record. For our three climate sites, these
were as follows:

Buffalo - 11.91" (wettest on record - previous wettest 11.80"/1991)
Rochester - 9.97" (2nd wettest on record, behind only 11.73"/1873)
Watertown - 9.79" (wettest on record - previous wettest 8.43"/2011)

Note that periods of record go back to January 1871 for Buffalo and
Rochester, and May 1949 for Watertown.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>006-
     010>014-019-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
210 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

NYZ001>006-010>014-019-085-020615-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
210 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

Frost/freeze headlines likely tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Frost/freeze headlines likely Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-020615-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
210 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-020-021-020615-
Jefferson-Lewis-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
210 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf