Flood Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

436 
WGUS61 KBUF 310621
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt 
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical 
levels.

NYZ006>008-311830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.260331T1200Z-260402T0000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
221 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by heavy rain and snowmelt is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following 
  counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.

* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT this morning through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms are
    expected from early this morning through tonight, which may
    result in 1 to 2 inches of rain. This rain combined with
    snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Tug Hill Plateau
    and Western Adirondacks may cause area waterways to reach or
    exceed bankfull stage, especially on the Black River and
    other rivers that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western
    Adirondacks.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-311830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.260331T1200Z-260402T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua,
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
221 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, 
  Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, 
  Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT this morning through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms are
    expected early this morning through tonight which may result
    in 1.0" to 1.5", with localized amounts of 2.0" if
    thunderstorms repeat over the same area. Excess runoff from
    this rainfall may cause area waterways to reach or exceed
    bankfull stage. General flooding away from area waterways
    will also be possible during this timeframe, especially in
    typical low-lying and poor drainage areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

618 
WGUS61 KBUF 311744
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt 
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical 
levels.

NYZ006>008-010700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T0000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
144 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by heavy rain and snowmelt is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following 
  counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.

* WHEN...Through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms
    continue through tonight, which may result in an additional
    inch of rain. This rain combined with snowmelt from the
    higher elevations of the Tug Hill Plateau and Western
    Adirondacks may cause area waterways to reach or exceed
    bankfull stage, especially on the Black River and other
    rivers that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western
    Adirondacks.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-010700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua,
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
144 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western New York and the northern Finger Lakes 
  Region.

* WHEN...Through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more 
  heavy rain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms
    continue through tonight which may result in 1" to 1.5", with
    localized amounts of 2" if thunderstorms repeat over the same
    area. Excess runoff from this rainfall may cause area
    waterways to reach or exceed bankfull stage. General flooding
    away from area waterways will also be possible during this
    timeframe, especially in typical low-lying and poor drainage
    areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Brothers

400 
WGUS61 KBUF 010641
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
241 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

NYZ006>008-011900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T0000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
241 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy rain yesterday produced widespread 1 to 2 inch 
  rainfall amounts, with localized amounts of over 3 inches where 
  thunderstorms repeated over the same areas. The heavy rain has 
  ended, but water will remain high in low lying areas, creeks, and 
  rivers today.

* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following 
  counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff will result in ongoing flooding of 
  rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone 
  locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Water levels will remain high today on area rivers and
    creeks, and in low lying areas. Runoff will continue from the
    heavy rain yesterday, and snowmelt from the high terrain of
    the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Flooding is possible on
    rivers and creeks that drain the higher terrain.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-011900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua,
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
241 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy rain yesterday produced widespread 1 to 2 inch 
  rainfall amounts, with localized amounts of over 3 inches where 
  thunderstorms repeated over the same areas. The heavy rain has 
  ended, but water will remain high in low lying areas, creeks, and 
  rivers today.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, 
  Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, 
  Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff will result in ongoing flooding of 
  rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone 
  locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Water levels will remain high today on area rivers and
    creeks, and in low lying areas. Most smaller creeks and low
    lying areas will see improving conditions today as high water
    drains. Larger rivers and creeks will continue to run high
    today.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

024 
WGUS61 KBUF 011859
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
259 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt 
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical 
levels.

NYZ001>005-012000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
and Fair Haven
259 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of central and western New 
York, including the following counties, in central New York, 
Northern Cayuga. In western New York, Monroe, Niagara, Orleans and 
Wayne.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

NYZ006>008-012000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T0000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
259 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for a portion of central New York, 
including the following counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

NYZ010>014-019>021-085-021200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and
Springville
259 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more 
  rain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

JJR

512 
WGUS61 KBUF 011908
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
308 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

NYZ010-011-012015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
308 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for a portion of western New York, 
including the following counties, Genesee and Northern Erie.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.


$$

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-021200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown,
Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
308 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Livingston, Ontario, 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more 
  rain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

JJR

276 
WGUS61 KBUF 020618
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-020730-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-260402T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown,
Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
218 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for a portion of western New York, 
including the following counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, 
Livingston, Ontario, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

TMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
217 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A significant warming trend will continue through Tuesday.

2) Locally heavy rainfall is possible late tonight through Tuesday
night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible late
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

3) Wet weather will continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant warming trend will continue through
Tuesday.

A day to day warming trend will continue today through Tuesday as a
flat ridge builds east across the CONUS. Highs today will reach the
low to mid 60s for the lower elevations of Western and Central NY,
with mid to upper 50s for higher terrain and the North Country. A
southwest wind will keep the Buffalo Metro area and Jefferson County
shoreline cooler. Average highs for the end of March are in the
mid to upper 40s.

Warmth will peak on Tuesday for most areas, with highs well into the
60s away from the lakes, and possibly lower 70s in some areas along
and south of the NYS Thruway. Latest model guidance suggests the
warm front will hang up near the south shore of Lake Ontario to the
North Country, with low level northeast flow just north of the
boundary. This will likely keep the south shore of Lake Ontario much
cooler. The Saint Lawrence Valley will be even colder, stuck in low
level northeast flow, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower
40s much of the day for the Thousand Islands region.

A cold front will move south across the area late Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning, with temperatures dropping back closer to
average by Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Locally heavy rainfall is possible late tonight
through Tuesday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

A warm front will move into the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon
then stall overnight through Tuesday. Thermal packing along the
boundary along with increasing large scale ascent and moisture
transport into the frontal position will allow it to become more
active late today through tonight. Scattered showers will begin to
develop by mid to late afternoon, then become more widespread and
heavier tonight as forcing and moisture improve. A few downpours
will develop overnight as the showers become more convective in
nature with the arrival of elevated instability, which will also
support a few widely scattered thunderstorms overnight. These
thunderstorms will be rooted well above the surface in a layer of
elevated instability, likely preventing any convective wind gusts
from reaching the surface.

Tuesday, the warm front will remain stalled from near the south
shore of Lake Ontario to the North Country for much of the day. The
proximity of the frontal zone will continue to produce occasional
showers for the northern portion of the area along and north of the
NYS Thruway. The Southern Tier will see a more extended period of
dry weather as the warm front becomes established from late morning
through afternoon. Elevated instability will continue to support a
chance of thunder in the morning, with more surface based
instability developing by late afternoon and bringing a better
chance of surface based convection.

The risk for heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
night ahead of the approaching cold front. With PWat values of
around 1.25" and forcing from a strong LLJ and the approaching cold
front, heavy rain is expected at times for all of western & north
central NY Tuesday night. Out ahead of the front, thunderstorms are
also expected with some having the potential to become severe. Bulk
shear values continue to look like values of 40+ kts will be over
much of the region. SRH values for both the 0-1 km & 0-3 km layer
also continue to be high with values greater than 250 m2/s2.
Instability is lacking, with the best instability values expected
for the Western Southern Tier during the evening hours. However,
with the forcing from the approaching front and overall dynamics of
the system, this is unfolding to be a high shear low CAPE severe
weather setup.

As a result of the severe thunderstorm potential, the Storm
Prediction Center has placed far western NY in a 'Slight Risk' and
the rest of western and north central NY in a 'Marginal Risk' for
severe thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Wet weather will continue through the weekend.

The wet pattern will continue through the weekend as multiple rounds
of rain move through the western & north central NY areas. With a
stout ridge and area of high pressure over the western portion of
the Atlantic, upstream troughs and sfc lows developing over/near the
Rockies and Central Plains will be diverted northeast across the
Great Lakes through the weekend. Stalled/stationary frontal
boundaries found from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the
Central/Eastern Great Lakes and to New England will provide for the
continued wet weather as surface lows and influxes of Gulf moisture
tracks along/near them. As different sfc lows track northeast across
the eastern half of the CONUS, these stalled/stationary fronts will
briefly drop south as cold fronts, and then lift back north as warm
fronts ahead of the next approaching sfc low.

This will be the case starting on Wednesday morning, when a cold
front drops south across most of the Buffalo forecast area behind a
passing sfc low. Uncertainty still remains with how quickly the
front will move through, and how far south the front will drop
before stalling ahead of the next sfc low. Current thought is that
the front will drop south far enough for there to be dry weather
from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, but if the
front stalls closer to or over the BUF forecast area, there will be
greater potential for continued showers.

This will be the case with the next few systems that move through,
with the southern portion of frontal boundaries with these systems
getting hung up on the western & northern periphery of the Atlantic
ridge/high, creating stalled boundaries. The northern portion of the
systems will more progressively track east over the ridge and then
move on. The flow around the Atlantic ridge/high will bring an
optimal setup for an influx of Gulf moisture to push north with each
developing sfc low over the Plains. Passing sfc lows and frontal
boundaries crossing and/or stalling over the area will bring the
potential for a couple of inches of rain through the weekend. There
is still uncertainty among the guidance and the exact track of the
heavier rain and placement of stalled frontal boundaries, so the
rainfall amounts could end up lower than current forecasts, but the
potential for continued rain in general is more certain.

With passing and stalling frontal boundaries and placement of said
frontal boundaries north/south near the forecast area, temperature
for the week will also remain uncertain. It does appear that the
colder side of the fronts will feature temperatures that are mostly
near normal, while the warmer side of the fronts will have well
above normal temperatures at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon with high cirrus
clouds this morning giving way to thickening and lowering CIGS this
afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGS will develop first across the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier this afternoon, then
spread north into the rest of the area this evening. CIGS will lower
further to widespread IFR tonight as a warm front moves into the
eastern Great Lakes and low levels saturate beneath a steepening
frontal inversion.

Dry weather will prevail through early this afternoon, then a few
scattered showers will develop later this afternoon and evening.
Showers will become more widespread and heavier tonight as the warm
front organizes and becomes more active over the eastern Great
Lakes. Elevated instability will also support widely scattered
thunderstorms overnight.

Finally, a 35-40 knot low level jet will develop over the eastern
Great Lakes today, then strengthen to 50-60 knots late tonight. This
will bring low level wind shear early this morning, then result in
increasing surface wind gusts from late morning through this
afternoon. Expect gusts in the 20-25 knot range in most areas, and
30-35 knots across the Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie.
Gusts will diminish this evening, but another period of low level
wind shear will develop overnight as the low level jet strengthens.

Outlook...

Tuesday...IFR/MVFR north to MVFR/VFR south with occasional showers
and scattered thunderstorms.

Tuesday night...IFR/MVFR with widespread rain and scattered
thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Showers across the Southern Tier ending early. MVFR/IFR
CIGS in the morning improving to mainly VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday and Friday...Periods of MVFR/IFR in showers. A chance of a
few thunderstorms at times. Wintry mix possible Thursday in the
Saint Lawrence Valley.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to around 15 knots on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario today, producing choppy conditions, but winds and waves
will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria in most
areas. A warm front will hang up across the lower Great Lakes
Tuesday, resulting in southwest winds on Lake Erie and northeast
winds on Lake Ontario. Winds will run around 15 knots again, with a
moderate chop on both lakes.

A cold front will move southeast across the area Tuesday night, with
a deepening area of low pressure passing by just north of the lakes.
Southwest winds will increase on both lakes just ahead of the cold
front, with a period of Small Craft Advisory winds and waves likely.
Winds will become northwest and diminish Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-310630-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Southern Erie-
225 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall is likely, with rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches likely from tonight through Wednesday morning across
much of the region. Local amounts may exceed 2 inches if
thunderstorms train over the same area. Runoff from heavy rainfall
will bring rises on area creeks and rivers, and may result in some
flooding of poor drainage areas.

In addition, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening across Western NY. The
primary hazard will be locally strong wind gusts, with a secondary
lower risk of large hail and isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>008-013-014-021-310630-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-
Ontario-Allegany-
225 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall is likely, with rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches likely from tonight through Wednesday morning across
much of the region. Local amounts may exceed 2 inches if
thunderstorms train over the same area. Runoff from heavy rainfall
will bring rises on area creeks and rivers, and may result in some
flooding of poor drainage areas.

In addition, there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening across the Genesee Valley,
Central NY, and the eastern Lake Ontario region. The primary hazard
will be locally strong wind gusts, with a secondary lower risk of
large hail and isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-310630-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
225 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts and higher
waves are possible late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock