Beach Hazards Statement 18, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
740 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain showers are expected Sunday into Monday, with best chances
across Central NY as a slow moving Nor'easter grazes the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain showers are expected Sunday into Monday, with
best chances across Central NY as a slow moving Nor'easter grazes
the area.

An unseasonably strong coastal low off the New Jersey coast will
complete a cyclonic loop to the south of Long Island tonight through
Sunday, with the low nearing the Jersey shore by late Sunday and
Sunday night. The westward drift in the position of the vertically
stacked low will advect Atlantic moisture westward across NY/PA,
with thickening and lowering clouds. The first chance of showers
will reach central NY early Sunday morning, then will progress
gradually westward as an inverted trough axis north of the low
center rotates westward. Showers may reach the Genesee Valley and
western Finger Lakes by early to mid afternoon. Far western New York
should stay dry most of Sunday, although a few light showers should
arrive by late afternoon or evening.

The coastal low is then forecast to slowly meander northeast along
the New England coast Sunday night through Tuesday, weakening with
time. The greatest rain chances and greatest western extent of the
rain shield will be Sunday night, with showers then gradually
tapering off and ending from west to east late Sunday night
through Monday as the low weakens and moves northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through tonight under varying amounts of
cirrus-level cloud cover. During Sunday an anomalously strong
coastal low will loop from just south of Long Island southwestward
along the New Jersey coastline...with its associated shield of
moisture spreading further westward across our region. This will
result in thickening/lowering clouds with ceilings falling into the
MVFR/IFR ranges from west to east during Sunday afternoon and early
evening...and scattered to numerous showers likewise spreading
westward across the region. The greatest potential for/coverage of
showers is currently expected to lie from about the Genesee Valley
eastward...with these sharply decreasing further to the west across
far WNY.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...At least some scattered rain showers continuing with
ceilings ranging from MVFR across the North Country to IFR/LIFR
across Western New York.

Monday...Shower chances slowly diminishing from west to east,
otherwise continued MVFR/IFR ceilings.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry weather. Improvement to VFR
Tuesday, with VFR then prevailing afterward.

&&

.MARINE...
A gradually freshening north-northeasterly flow will continue
tonight, with the highest winds and wave action in the nearshore
zones located from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River, where
conditions will reach low end Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Elsewhere a moderate chop can be expected.

Winds will increase further late tonight and Sunday as anomalously
strong low pressure along the east coast makes its closest approach
to our region. This will bring solid Small Craft Advisory conditions
to the nearshore waters from the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence
River, while conditions remain a little below advisory levels
elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 PM EDT this evening through
     late Sunday night for NYZ002>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for
         LOZ045.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJR/SGK
AVIATION...JJR/SGK
MARINE...JJR/SGK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
336 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

NYZ001-007-008-010>014-019>021-085-271945-
Niagara-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
336 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002>006-271945-
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
336 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-271945-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
336 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock