Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
230 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected for much of the
area south of Lake Ontario through this evening, with heavy rain at
times.

2) More showers and thunderstorms possible for Thursday afternoon
and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected for
much of the area south of Lake Ontario through this evening, with
heavy rain at times.

A shortwave trough and a weak sfc low crossing over or just south of
the area will help support the potential for continued showers and
some embedded thunderstorms. An influx of moisture will help allow
some heavier downpours within thunderstorms that move across the
area. The greatest potential for showers and storms will continue to
remain south of Lake Ontario, with the chance for rain increasing
toward the NY/PA border. Weak flow aloft will cause showers/storms
to move slow, with any heavier slow moving showers bringing the
potential for localized flooding. The greatest chance for this will
be for portions of the Western Southern Tier where wet antecedent
conditions exist from the weekend. The 12Z KBUF sounding from this
morning came in with a PWat value of 1.78 inches, supporting that
potential for heavier rain.

Morning guidance is still split on the timing and northern extent of
the showers through the day today, with most of the CAMS guidance
keeping more organized and heavier showers south of I90. Current
morning showers are weakening with northerly extent due to the
weaker forcing. As the shortwave inverted trough and sfc low cross
over or just south of the area showers will fill in toward the
north. Showers will shift east as the trough and sfc low track east,
with the sfc low remaining mostly in or south of Pennsylvania as it
continues to weaken. This track will keep areas east of Lake Ontario
mostly dry, but a few brief showers can't be ruled out.

Any lingering showers will end during the evening hours for most
areas, with showers lasting the longest into the morning hours on
Tuesday for portions of the Western Southern Tier.

Mostly dry conditions will then return for Tuesday through Thursday
morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...More showers and thunderstorms possible for Thursday
afternoon and Friday.

A trough will track through the region on Thursday afternoon,
bringing the next chance for showers. This will then be followed by
the passage of a cold front that will track through the region on
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and with
the frontal passage, especially as the region falls within the warm
sector of the sfc low associated with the cold front on Friday.
Still a few runs out for higher resolution guidance, so some
uncertainty still exists at this point. But current global models
are trending with a cold frontal passage during the first half of
the morning hours. Some guidance also stalls the front across the
forecast area, prolonging the potential for showers and storms. If
the cold front is slower and allows additional daytime heating
before passage, then the potential for more thunderstorms can be
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure is located over the Ohio Valley with a
stationary front draped across western NY. A very moist airmass and
weak upper level winds will support slow-moving showers and
thunderstorms through this evening. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected outside of showers and thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR conditions
are expected in showers and thunderstorms across western NY. Showers
will slowly taper off tonight. The moist airmass will persist
overnight with low clouds and patchy fog mainly south of the
Interstate 90 corridor.

Dry air will move into the region Tuesday, with a slow improvement
in flight conditions Tuesday morning. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible across the Finger Lakes, otherwise mainly dry
and VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
inland from the lakes in the afternoon.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled just south of the lower
Great Lakes through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build
southeast across Quebec today, tightening the pressure gradient.
Northeast winds will increase to near 15 knots at times on Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie, producing a moderate chop on the lakes today
through Tuesday. Winds and waves are expected to remain a little
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Light winds will return Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure
settles over the eastern Great Lakes. Southwest winds will increase
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, with choppy conditions
developing on both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
128 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NYZ001>008-010-011-071730-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
128 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-071730-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
128 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and a few scattered thunderstorms are expected today, with
peak coverage of rain this afternoon. Some of the showers will be
heavy and slow moving, producing locally heavy rainfall. There is a
Marginal and Slight Risk of isolated flash flooding across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-071730-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
128 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

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